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  • Is the Bull Market Running Out of Breath? [View article]
    I, too, would like to see the equities markets reflect reality (ok, MY version of reality). To any bulls--don't get me wrong; I don't hate America, but I think recent market action is more due to speculative forces rather than anything more fundamental.

    However, anytime in the past I even considered the barest hint of a glimmer of sliver of a tenuous wisp of a notion the markets would come back down to earth--I've been disappointed. Thus, I don't expect it to happen anytime soon. Unless of course, world Armageddon occurs and even then--I'm not so sure.
    Apr 7 12:00 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas Instruments' (TXN +1.7%) bid for National Semiconductor (NSM +71%) ranks among the 10 largest premiums for deals worth more than $1B in the past 10 years, but the Street loves the deal. The big premium only means that “current chip valuations are low," and TI's superior sales force "will be able to gain back the market share NSM lost and accelerate revenue growth.”  [View news story]
    “current chip valuations are low"

    Of course, Wall St types will say this--the alternative interpretation makes them no money. I'm sure there's evidence showing trends, but my vague recollection is that these large buyouts are often less profitable than mgt thinks (for some reason, the merger between HP & CPQ pops into my head).
    Apr 5 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What the Monthly Charts Are Telling Us Now [View article]
    What are they telling us (I know little about TA)?
    Apr 3 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March ADP Jobs Report: +201K vs. +205K expected and +208K prior (revised from +217K). The average monthly increase in employment over the last four months has been 211K, consistent with a gradual if uneven decline in the unemployment rate.  [View news story]
    E, shouldn't you be out adding to your extensive collection of investment properties or tooling around town in one of your color-matched Mercedes S500's?

    Mar 30 02:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March ADP Jobs Report: +201K vs. +205K expected and +208K prior (revised from +217K). The average monthly increase in employment over the last four months has been 211K, consistent with a gradual if uneven decline in the unemployment rate.  [View news story]
    This is a good point. I know nothing of how ADP gathers their data, but do they have/release the salaries of these new jobs?
    Mar 30 08:36 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "I think it may be reasonable to send a signal to markets that we’re going to start withdrawing our stimulus," says St. Louis Fed President Bullard, calling for an early end to QEII. Bullard is the 3rd Fed member (Fisher, Plosser) in a few days to signal easy money needs to end soon. Unlike the others, Bullard is not a voter on the FOMC.  [View news story]
    Trying hard not to be skeptical--wouldn't it be easy enough to continue QE efforts 'undercover' or in some other stealthy way? This would allow the Fed to 'act' tough, yet continue the rediculiquidity....
    Mar 27 10:10 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The government's finally sending people to jail for mortgage fraud, just not who you'd expect. Charlie Engle's behind bars not for selling bad mortgages, but for borrowing - allegedly lying on a pair of liar loans. It took months of probing and a flirtatious undercover agent to put away a single borrower, Joe Nocera writes in a good read, while Countrywide's Angelo Mozilo is still at large.  [View news story]
    While it's easy to become angry at Mozilo, we've got to remember it's the larger system (that allows these slimeballs to operate with impunity) that is at fault. Mozilo and his ilk were doing what the system allowed them to get away with. Until we destroy that system, this abuse will continue.
    Mar 26 09:31 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Risks of a Merciless Market as the Earnings Parade Begins [View article]
    Excellent piece, Soos, and welcome to the den....
    Mar 25 06:39 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware the Fed Driven Market [View article]
    Interesting observation re POMO which has been noted by many commentators. You're case would be more compelling if you could show all the POMO days averaged into one graph vs non-POMO days. Wonder what that would look like?
    Mar 25 10:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q4 GDP (third estimate): +3.1% vs. +3% expected, +2.8% prior. Chain-weighted price index +0.4%, unchanged from prior. Corporate Profits -3.3% vs. +2.4% prior.  [View news story]
    Yikes: big swing in corp profits. DEW line for margin compression?
    Mar 25 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leading Stock Market Indicators and Tipping Points [View article]
    John, I appreciate your attempts to focus only on data, rather than opinion. A question regarding point 19: do you have a link or source supporting your claim about 4% inflation? Thinking aloud, does your historical data account for the changes in the way the BLS calculates CPI (if I recall, they made revisions in 1983 & 1992?)? In other words, are you comparing apples to oranges since using the older CPI methods puts inflation well north of 5%.
    Mar 24 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State of the Markets: Risk Back On? [View article]
    Me, too. I had never heard the phrase 'risk trade' until recently; I thought I had just missed it all these years. Also, the phrase 'tail risk' as in fat or skinny tail risk (I still don't know what it means, but it brings to mind my wanton, lustful & carefree bachelor days spent chasing, uh, 'tail'. I'm pretty sure that's not what they mean).
    Mar 22 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happens When QE2 Ends? [View article]
    Ugh. It's difficult resisting being cynical, isn't it? I, too, can easily see BLS revising the way they calculate CPI--they'll even have political cover as they'll say the revision was in response to the legitimate criticisms of allowing too much influence from the OER....

    And, voila, no more inflation!
    Mar 20 02:00 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breaking down in tears, the managing director of TEPCO concedes the radiation being emitted from the damaged reactors is enough to kill people. The NISA, which earlier raised its rating of the severity of the disaster, acknowledges the water-spraying operation is "fighting a fire we cannot see."  [View news story]
    I'm trying to imagine Angelo Mozillo or Bernie Madoff crying in shame, but it just ain't happening...
    Mar 18 03:06 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nike an Early Example of Cost Pressures Filtering Into Margins [View article]
    "On the plus side, I hear iPads (AAPL), which are dropping in price, make excellent footwear in a pinch."

    Bill Dudley swears by 'em....
    Mar 18 12:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment