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w3steve

w3steve
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  • Where Did All The Bears Go? [View article]
    Thanks, Cullen. Certainly food for thought. It looks like the 2011 local peak in the S&P 500 happened about 4 months after the first <20% bearish Investors Intelligence survey result, the 2010 peak about 5 months after the first signal, and the big 2007 peak about 9 months after the first <20 signal.
    Mar 22 09:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One of the most common mistakes investors make is going with the known rather than the best ETFs, says Matt Hougan, speaking at Index Universe's Inside ETFs conference. One example is using FXI for China exposure (discussed here, try CAF instead). Another: Buying XLF for financials avoids small caps. Look to IYF for broader exposure. [View news story]
    To complete the comparison, the 5- and 10-year price performance (through Dec 31, 2012) on a $10,000 investment as mentioned above by Stephen Alpher:

    IYF : $6,483 : $8,895
    XLF : $5,664 : $7,477

    Total 5- and 10-year performance (price + dividends) of $10,000 investment:

    IYF : $7,010.62 : $10,739.35
    XLF : $6,231.40 : $9,711.01

    Take-away: as Stephen Alpher noted above, IYF has outperformed XLF on a 5- and 10-year basis, and the slightly higher dividends paid out by XLF don't account for the difference.
    Mar 7 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One of the most common mistakes investors make is going with the known rather than the best ETFs, says Matt Hougan, speaking at Index Universe's Inside ETFs conference. One example is using FXI for China exposure (discussed here, try CAF instead). Another: Buying XLF for financials avoids small caps. Look to IYF for broader exposure. [View news story]
    According to yahoo.com, dividendchannel.com and http://dividata.com, total dividends paid for calendar years 2008-2012 are:

    IYF : $4.976
    XLF : $1.650

    comparing yields is tricky; choosing the Jan 2, 2008 opening price for each gives the 5-year dividends as a percent:

    IYF : 5.28% (4.976 / 94.31)
    XLF : 5.67% (1.65 / 29.08)

    10-year dividends:

    Dividends paid for calendar years 2003-2012 total:

    IYF : $12.726
    XLF : $4.926

    the Jan 2, 2003 opening price for each gives the 10-year dividends as a percent:

    IYF : 18.44% (12.726 / $69.00)
    XLF : 22.34% (4.926 / $22.05)

    Put another way, the 5- and 10-year total dividends on a $10,000 investment:

    IYF : $527.62 : $1,844.35
    XLF : $567.40 : $2,234.01

    Since I sell puts for additional income, XLF is a better choice for me (more liquidity in the options).
    Feb 11 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday Options Brief: VVUS, NUS & RHT [View article]
    VVUS spiked 10% in p.m., from ~20.5 when the flys were bought to ~22.
    Mar 29 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Problem With Volume for the New Rally [View article]
    @frosty "Correct me if I'm wrong, but there are always equal amounts of buying and selling":

    Good point. I suppose "equal amounts of buying and selling" is shorthand for "equal amounts of bids and offers"
    May 13 07:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Exxon Will Keep Profiting as Oil Prices Slump [View article]
    @searcher may be thinking of Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez and Citgo Petroleum Corp., the U.S. refiner (privately) owned by Venezuela’s state oil company. For some reason I, too, thought VLO was the one, but a quick web search tells me I was mistaken.


    On Feb 19 08:16 PM kpc wrote:

    > Hmmm could you explain?
    Mar 3 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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