DNA Decoder's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/3279331/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1498912/comments?source=feed#comment-19957572 19957572 - YoY nationwide business bankruptcy filings fell 25% in May
- Weekly mortgage application volume up 5%
- Weekly refinance volume up 5%
- Initial claims down to 334K
- Retail sales up 0.6%
- Business inventories up 0.3%]]> Thu, 13 Jun 2013 17:59:23 -0400 - YoY nationwide business bankruptcy filings fell 25% in May
- Weekly mortgage application volume up 5%
- Weekly refinance volume up 5%
- Initial claims down to 334K
- Retail sales up 0.6%
- Business inventories up 0.3%]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1477041/comments?source=feed#comment-19635331 19635331
Another thing to watch is the short float (it's around 30%).

Also, material price is still a major concern because the smartphones price competition is getting extremely fierce, so companies will be forced to keep the pressure on finding ways to reduce expenses to maintain margins.]]> Wed, 05 Jun 2013 10:58:29 -0400
Another thing to watch is the short float (it's around 30%).

Also, material price is still a major concern because the smartphones price competition is getting extremely fierce, so companies will be forced to keep the pressure on finding ways to reduce expenses to maintain margins.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1348131/comments?source=feed#comment-19599531 19599531 Tue, 04 Jun 2013 12:30:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1341661/comments?source=feed#comment-19494401 19494401 Fri, 31 May 2013 23:47:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1439011/comments?source=feed#comment-19494381 19494381 Fri, 31 May 2013 23:43:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1439011/comments?source=feed#comment-18929111 18929111
Nothing short of amazing by the way. From legally blind to almost normal vision acuity. That's from having a newborn vision, to having enough vision to legally drive. ]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 00:15:33 -0400
Nothing short of amazing by the way. From legally blind to almost normal vision acuity. That's from having a newborn vision, to having enough vision to legally drive. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1425451/comments?source=feed#comment-18711881 18711881 Sat, 11 May 2013 12:34:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1375091/comments?source=feed#comment-18326671 18326671 Wed, 01 May 2013 15:15:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1348131/comments?source=feed#comment-18244241 18244241 Mon, 29 Apr 2013 17:49:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1348131/comments?source=feed#comment-18224371 18224371
Having said that, I think results were a lot worse than expected given the gross margin fell from 42% to 31% YoY and EBITDA fell from $26 million to $17 million.

I think the worse part of the report is this:

"Due to the Canadian spring breakup, since the beginning of April we have shut down four crews in Canada, and we operated two crews through the middle of April. We are experiencing a softening in the U. S. seismic market as our clients are re-evaluating reservoir plays and seismic funds are being diverted to drilling programs. As a result, we have idled two crews but are keeping the key personnel to maintain flexibility to get crews back into the field as quickly as client demands warrant. We believe the softening is temporary, but may last into the third quarter. However, we believe demand for our services will improve during the latter part of the year."

The company's performance is very seasonal and that causes very large earning surprises, both to the upside and to the downside. We already know that, but the problem I see here is this part:

"We are experiencing a softening in the U. S. seismic market"

That is further confirmation of the OIH bearish trend. ]]> Mon, 29 Apr 2013 11:06:55 -0400
Having said that, I think results were a lot worse than expected given the gross margin fell from 42% to 31% YoY and EBITDA fell from $26 million to $17 million.

I think the worse part of the report is this:

"Due to the Canadian spring breakup, since the beginning of April we have shut down four crews in Canada, and we operated two crews through the middle of April. We are experiencing a softening in the U. S. seismic market as our clients are re-evaluating reservoir plays and seismic funds are being diverted to drilling programs. As a result, we have idled two crews but are keeping the key personnel to maintain flexibility to get crews back into the field as quickly as client demands warrant. We believe the softening is temporary, but may last into the third quarter. However, we believe demand for our services will improve during the latter part of the year."

The company's performance is very seasonal and that causes very large earning surprises, both to the upside and to the downside. We already know that, but the problem I see here is this part:

"We are experiencing a softening in the U. S. seismic market"

That is further confirmation of the OIH bearish trend. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1099091/comments?source=feed#comment-18161451 18161451
It's a reasonable question Rochelle. Thanks for the article and thanks to all investors here for their input.

My answer is: I'm not sure if it's worth the risk.

I like the growth numbers but, how will the client satisfaction be affected with all those fees they charge? Also, how much of an advantage or disadvantage will be the "lease vs own" model in the next years? Then, hurricane season is a wild card for Spirit given their market focus.

And another thing, the deferred long term asset charges are rising fast. Anybody familiar with Spirit knows why this number is rising so much on an annual basis? I suspect their ROA is going to collapse next year.]]> Sat, 27 Apr 2013 00:54:44 -0400
It's a reasonable question Rochelle. Thanks for the article and thanks to all investors here for their input.

My answer is: I'm not sure if it's worth the risk.

I like the growth numbers but, how will the client satisfaction be affected with all those fees they charge? Also, how much of an advantage or disadvantage will be the "lease vs own" model in the next years? Then, hurricane season is a wild card for Spirit given their market focus.

And another thing, the deferred long term asset charges are rising fast. Anybody familiar with Spirit knows why this number is rising so much on an annual basis? I suspect their ROA is going to collapse next year.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1348131/comments?source=feed#comment-18135391 18135391
April 26 (Reuters) - National Oilwell Varco Inc, the
largest U.S. oilfield equipment provider, reported a
larger-than-expected decline in quarterly profit as margins were
squeezed and the North American market was softer than expected.
Shares of the company fell 2.5 percent to $65.50 in early
trade on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday.
"We are very cautious about North America and continue to
see headwinds here as pricing and volume remain under pressure
and as demand for pressure pumping and drilling equipment
remains weak and operators defer expenditures," Chief Operating
Officer Clay Williams said on a conference call.]]> Fri, 26 Apr 2013 12:05:20 -0400
April 26 (Reuters) - National Oilwell Varco Inc, the
largest U.S. oilfield equipment provider, reported a
larger-than-expected decline in quarterly profit as margins were
squeezed and the North American market was softer than expected.
Shares of the company fell 2.5 percent to $65.50 in early
trade on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday.
"We are very cautious about North America and continue to
see headwinds here as pricing and volume remain under pressure
and as demand for pressure pumping and drilling equipment
remains weak and operators defer expenditures," Chief Operating
Officer Clay Williams said on a conference call.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1348131/comments?source=feed#comment-18112751 18112751 Thu, 25 Apr 2013 22:32:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1276911/comments?source=feed#comment-18086081 18086081
Be mindful that the FDA denied approval for Monovisc in December and just a couple of months later it was known that the company couldn't respond to the EMA's concerns about Hyalograft C, so they opted to withdraw the marketing application.]]> Thu, 25 Apr 2013 12:51:47 -0400
Be mindful that the FDA denied approval for Monovisc in December and just a couple of months later it was known that the company couldn't respond to the EMA's concerns about Hyalograft C, so they opted to withdraw the marketing application.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1348131/comments?source=feed#comment-17979701 17979701 Tue, 23 Apr 2013 11:07:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1348131/comments?source=feed#comment-17939941 17939941 Mon, 22 Apr 2013 13:51:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1348131/comments?source=feed#comment-17939631 17939631 Mon, 22 Apr 2013 13:43:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1348131/comments?source=feed#comment-17939591 17939591 Mon, 22 Apr 2013 13:43:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1348131/comments?source=feed#comment-17880421 17880421
I am not a big fan of dividends as I think the money can be used in other ways, but this could be a nice positive catalyst for the stock.

http://bit.ly/12vW1Na]]> Sat, 20 Apr 2013 16:50:35 -0400
I am not a big fan of dividends as I think the money can be used in other ways, but this could be a nice positive catalyst for the stock.

http://bit.ly/12vW1Na]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1328081/comments?source=feed#comment-17838051 17838051 Fri, 19 Apr 2013 12:43:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1348131/comments?source=feed#comment-17820081 17820081
Yes I know, patience is a virtue. TGE will have its good days too. Today may have been good to buy, but I didn't pull the trigger. The market is in a downtrend and this type of stocks tend to suffer the most when it turns bearish. It's a small cap providing services to oil and gas drilling companies, which in turn rely on commodities with falling prices right now. Some people criticize market timing, but that's why I incorporate market study before buying anything, because it really helps. I've been reducing exposure to stocks since February as precaution.

How long will it take to bottom is difficult to say if not impossible. It could go into consolidation while it downtrends or it could fall fast like a rock. Today the Tips bonds fell straight down, suggesting the correction could be very real, as deflation rears its head. But with the Fed's easing and lower yields of sovereign bonds in Italy and Spain, I do not expect the correction to be incredibly big. We'll see.

I will definitely buy TGE in this pulldown at some point. I wouldn't be surprised if it breaks the channel and goes to $8, and I wouldn't be surprised if AAPL goes to $350 either. It will all depend on the market. But they should go up fast when the dust settles. I will post my purchases as soon as I make them.]]> Fri, 19 Apr 2013 00:21:00 -0400
Yes I know, patience is a virtue. TGE will have its good days too. Today may have been good to buy, but I didn't pull the trigger. The market is in a downtrend and this type of stocks tend to suffer the most when it turns bearish. It's a small cap providing services to oil and gas drilling companies, which in turn rely on commodities with falling prices right now. Some people criticize market timing, but that's why I incorporate market study before buying anything, because it really helps. I've been reducing exposure to stocks since February as precaution.

How long will it take to bottom is difficult to say if not impossible. It could go into consolidation while it downtrends or it could fall fast like a rock. Today the Tips bonds fell straight down, suggesting the correction could be very real, as deflation rears its head. But with the Fed's easing and lower yields of sovereign bonds in Italy and Spain, I do not expect the correction to be incredibly big. We'll see.

I will definitely buy TGE in this pulldown at some point. I wouldn't be surprised if it breaks the channel and goes to $8, and I wouldn't be surprised if AAPL goes to $350 either. It will all depend on the market. But they should go up fast when the dust settles. I will post my purchases as soon as I make them.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1328081/comments?source=feed#comment-17818501 17818501
But the first blow to gold investors was definitely the most potent, which was the Outright Monetary Transactions plan back in September. That set the bazooka to "hyper mode" and averted financial meltdown.

Gold investors betrayed by their own investment thesis of inflationary money-spitting central banks. Ironies.

I don't have the original links where I read these news, but you will surely find lots of info on the net. If I have some time this weekend, I'll write a new article about it. ]]> Thu, 18 Apr 2013 23:13:36 -0400
But the first blow to gold investors was definitely the most potent, which was the Outright Monetary Transactions plan back in September. That set the bazooka to "hyper mode" and averted financial meltdown.

Gold investors betrayed by their own investment thesis of inflationary money-spitting central banks. Ironies.

I don't have the original links where I read these news, but you will surely find lots of info on the net. If I have some time this weekend, I'll write a new article about it. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1328081/comments?source=feed#comment-17806421 17806421
I think the massive size of the Jap easing will cause the Yen to depreciate to some extent on the short term (not crash, as you well explained), or at least will cause it to remain at lower levels compared to last year by plain brute force. That's why I think that, being the "fresher" and bigger QE in town, it provides a nice home in the Nikkei to take some long positions over the next 12 to 18 months. In the long term however, the Yen will most probably "spring back up" as soon as the end of that QE is hinted. Same thing for USA.

I think is very difficult for countries to change the long term course of their currencies when there are huge macro forces acting against the central bank's objectives.

Regarding gold, my view is:
"Global deflation without systemic risk = poison for gold"
Sounds like a good title for an article ;)

The moment Draghi signed that new legislation that gave more powers to the ECB, he signed the death certificate of long term gold investors. With the global economic downturn exerting deflationary pressure on commodities and with the ECB bazooka preventing financial collapse, gold bugs betting on inflation by currency devaluation were doomed. ]]> Thu, 18 Apr 2013 17:04:07 -0400
I think the massive size of the Jap easing will cause the Yen to depreciate to some extent on the short term (not crash, as you well explained), or at least will cause it to remain at lower levels compared to last year by plain brute force. That's why I think that, being the "fresher" and bigger QE in town, it provides a nice home in the Nikkei to take some long positions over the next 12 to 18 months. In the long term however, the Yen will most probably "spring back up" as soon as the end of that QE is hinted. Same thing for USA.

I think is very difficult for countries to change the long term course of their currencies when there are huge macro forces acting against the central bank's objectives.

Regarding gold, my view is:
"Global deflation without systemic risk = poison for gold"
Sounds like a good title for an article ;)

The moment Draghi signed that new legislation that gave more powers to the ECB, he signed the death certificate of long term gold investors. With the global economic downturn exerting deflationary pressure on commodities and with the ECB bazooka preventing financial collapse, gold bugs betting on inflation by currency devaluation were doomed. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1328081/comments?source=feed#comment-17757731 17757731
http://bit.ly/15gg6tr]]> Wed, 17 Apr 2013 17:39:53 -0400
http://bit.ly/15gg6tr]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1341661/comments?source=feed#comment-17757371 17757371
http://bit.ly/17Hhl4v]]> Wed, 17 Apr 2013 17:31:40 -0400
http://bit.ly/17Hhl4v]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1339351/comments?source=feed#comment-17757131 17757131
http://wapo.st/11x26Yn]]> Wed, 17 Apr 2013 17:26:19 -0400
http://wapo.st/11x26Yn]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1344071/comments?source=feed#comment-17735331 17735331
I've been slowly reducing exposure to equities since February, as these relationships continue to announce that deflationary forces are in play. US dollar, commodities, discretionary to staples, yield curve, you name it. It's all over it.

With the Fed's easing and lower borrowing costs for Italy and Spain, it is risky to short the market. As we move into a possible consolidation and short term downtrend, a pulldown into a Fibonacci support will most probably start panic buying. It's safer to seek refuge in TLT, as bonds tend to easily overperform stocks when deflating. But your move is bold and I hope you do well.

Thanks for providing your perspective. You did put a lot of work into the article. ]]> Wed, 17 Apr 2013 10:46:16 -0400
I've been slowly reducing exposure to equities since February, as these relationships continue to announce that deflationary forces are in play. US dollar, commodities, discretionary to staples, yield curve, you name it. It's all over it.

With the Fed's easing and lower borrowing costs for Italy and Spain, it is risky to short the market. As we move into a possible consolidation and short term downtrend, a pulldown into a Fibonacci support will most probably start panic buying. It's safer to seek refuge in TLT, as bonds tend to easily overperform stocks when deflating. But your move is bold and I hope you do well.

Thanks for providing your perspective. You did put a lot of work into the article. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1339351/comments?source=feed#comment-17715671 17715671
Toyota is expected to maintain its "exceptionally strong" financial position over the next two to three years, the rating firm said.

http://on.wsj.com/171Qn6C]]> Tue, 16 Apr 2013 22:09:09 -0400
Toyota is expected to maintain its "exceptionally strong" financial position over the next two to three years, the rating firm said.

http://on.wsj.com/171Qn6C]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1341661/comments?source=feed#comment-17713841 17713841
Maybe I should have been more specific in the debt to equity statement. Every investor has their own methods. When I analyze any kind of asset, I perform my risk assessment on a "worst case scenario basis". Think about insurance companies for instance. All of them would be out of business if they wouldn't take into account the "worst possible scenario" when assessing each client.

When I buy 1 stock of Ford or any other company, I'm not buying 1 share of Ford without its financial arm. I'm buying 1 share of Ford and all its subsidiaries. The whole package. That means I'm buying all the positives the mentioned group can give me, but also all the risks. For comparison purposes, I can not simply disregard the heavy baggage that comes with the purchase of Ford if I am not doing the same with TM or HMC. If I do that, then, it would not be apples to apples.

Some people don't mind that number. Others do. Ford does not pass the test (final result was 65%). But that doesn't mean it is a weak company. It is not.

It only means that the stock may not be as cheap as other valuation methods suggest.]]> Tue, 16 Apr 2013 20:55:58 -0400
Maybe I should have been more specific in the debt to equity statement. Every investor has their own methods. When I analyze any kind of asset, I perform my risk assessment on a "worst case scenario basis". Think about insurance companies for instance. All of them would be out of business if they wouldn't take into account the "worst possible scenario" when assessing each client.

When I buy 1 stock of Ford or any other company, I'm not buying 1 share of Ford without its financial arm. I'm buying 1 share of Ford and all its subsidiaries. The whole package. That means I'm buying all the positives the mentioned group can give me, but also all the risks. For comparison purposes, I can not simply disregard the heavy baggage that comes with the purchase of Ford if I am not doing the same with TM or HMC. If I do that, then, it would not be apples to apples.

Some people don't mind that number. Others do. Ford does not pass the test (final result was 65%). But that doesn't mean it is a weak company. It is not.

It only means that the stock may not be as cheap as other valuation methods suggest.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1341661/comments?source=feed#comment-17646531 17646531
That was a smart openining line. They're reliable cars with a different model for every taste or need.

I'm eager to see how these stocks behave in a correction. Commodities are being crushed further today.]]> Mon, 15 Apr 2013 11:53:16 -0400
That was a smart openining line. They're reliable cars with a different model for every taste or need.

I'm eager to see how these stocks behave in a correction. Commodities are being crushed further today.]]>