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WayneinOregon

WayneinOregon
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  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    The Tesla Gigathreat - http://bit.ly/1qwVqK3
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    Conclusion

    Tesla's most ambitious investment, its investment in the battery gigafactory, is a giant bet that solid-state batteries won't be with us until well after 2020. If all these investments by the car makers on such technology pan out before then, Tesla's gigafactory will instantly turn into a giant albatross and all the investment in it will likely be lost.

    This happens because solid-state batteries are built on an entirely different manufacturing process, leading to the impossibility of repurposing the gigafactory. Tesla would then either be stuck with an inferior battery technology (a sustainable disadvantage), or would have to scrap the gigafactory altogether - an event Tesla might not be able to survive, given the values involved.
    Dec 10, 2014. 04:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Very Bearish Case For Canadian Natural Gas [View article]
    James, there's a LOT of opposition to this pipeline here in Oregon, especailly from conservatives who view the proposed use of eminent domain with a great deal of antipathy. From what I can gather, it currently doesn't look like the pipeline will withstand this opposition.
    Dec 10, 2014. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Only Yesterday---How The Federal Debt Went From $1 Trillion To $18 Trillion In 33 Years [View article]
    Thanks Mr. Stockman for another great article, and for continuing to sound the alarm about our economic house of cards. If I were to synthesize this article...

    For 33 years now, Americans have been living beyond their means, and have come to believe you can actually get something for nothing. Any politician who dares to speak these truths will be severely punished. -- So it's highly unlikely unsustainable national and global economic policies will change any time soon.
    Dec 9, 2014. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    Most articles on solar are centered on the economics of it in developed countries. This short article focuses on how millions of people in underdeveloped countries will use solar to significantly improve the quality of their lives in the very near future.
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    "... said in a statement that millions of people in Africa still rely on dangerous kerosene for power. Off-Grid knows how to provide them more light at less cost. Off-Grid has an ambitious plan to bring solar energy to 50 million homes by 2022.

    http://bit.ly/1z3pYne
    Dec 9, 2014. 02:32 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Wal-Mart Signs On, SolarCity's Future Looks Ever Brighter [View article]
    I recently read the price of NG has dropped significantly in Asia. Because export terminals and other LNG transportation costs are so capital intensive, this price decline casts doubt on the feasibility of building a large LNG export infrastructure. -- This may prevent any significant increase in US NG prices for many years to come.
    Dec 9, 2014. 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan Toxicity [View article]
    RE: - "At what point can we expect convention and mainstream commentary to stop referring to monetarism as "stimulus"? If we are to have a unified and ubiquitous qualifying description of the idea, it is far closer to toxin or poison than anything that suggests positivity."
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    Thanks Joseph for your above comment. One of the most refreshing I've read in a long time. Now if mainstream commentary would quit referring to low inflation as somehow "dangerous" .... and super high debt as "manageable". It would seem it's only manageable if there's a "reasonable" amount of inflation.

    Modern and conventional thinking on monetarism and fundamental economics seems bizarrely skewed--IMO based on a continuing and disconcerting delusional assumption that you can get something for nothing. How unsustainable is that?
    Dec 3, 2014. 12:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: Welcome To The Cheapest Oil Producer Worldwide (Part 2) [View article]
    "it's my experience that writing with style, and elegance often hides a huge trap. You see, a lot of people assume that if you can write well, you also know what you're talking about, and more often than not, that is not the case. A great number of people make a fine living, just by writing, absence of any knowledge of what they are writing about."
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    Samberpax, great comment. And Casual Analyst, nice reply.

    I would add that even though a contributor to SA may have a long and successful history of accurate prognostications, it doesn't mean they can't still be way off the mark on some in some of their articles. -- Bret Jensen is an example, who's made a number of very good calls, but appears to have been totally caught off guard by the collapse of oil prices. Thus, IMO, his calls on some smaller energy plays could be accurately described as disastrous.
    Dec 2, 2014. 03:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Crude Prices [View article]
    Hey Paulo, congrats on some of your recent correct calls. Re: PetroAmerica - Any updated thoughts on this company since the OPEC meeting and the collapse of oil prices? -- Thanks.
    Nov 29, 2014. 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: Welcome To The Cheapest Oil Producer Worldwide (Part 2) [View article]
    RE: - "The company is seeking $70 million to $80 million to pay a C$35 million ($31 million) bond maturing in April and to fund production growth..." --- “The company’s situation is very different now,” he said. “We’d want a single-digit rate for the new funding.”
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    Hi Peter,

    The sentiment and intentions in the above quotes from the Bloomberg article strike me as almost ancient history. With the collapse of the price of oil this past week, lenders with hundreds of billions of dollars on the line in small cap energy plays are almost assuredly going to be FAR more conservative in what energy companies they lend to, and how much and on what terms.

    It seems this could impact PTA's game plan significantly, and call into question some of the key assumptions outlined in this article--at least in the near-term. Given PTA's strong financial position, it seems they'll be able to weather this storm, but it seems their higher production and revenue expectations will probably take longer than anticipated.
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    I'm expecting many of the smaller, highly indebted shale players will get shaken out pretty good in the short term (2015), and as this happens, US oil production will drop (or at least stabilize), and confidence in the bottoming of oil prices will occur concurrently--just what the Saudis wanted. Who's to say at what price that bottom will be?

    If this plays out, post-2015 might be even better for PTA than would otherwise have been expected. Now if we can just keep those Marxist guerrillas at bay! -- Note, these speculative musings depend on my currently envisioned timeline, which is almost assuredly wrong. :-) They're also not based on the comprehensive information and background that VD brings to the table, so I would most assuredly defer to him for an updated analysis.
    Nov 29, 2014. 12:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: Welcome To The Cheapest Oil Producer Worldwide (Part 2) [View article]
    Here's an 11-12-14 Bloomberg Article:
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    Petroamerica Expects Colombia Oil License in a Few Months

    http://bloom.bg/1toQvGM
    Nov 28, 2014. 03:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fall In Oil Bears Watching Closely [View article]
    Bret, always appreciate your articles. -- I was wondering if your fundamental thesis on near-term oil prices has changed since OPEC decided not to reduce outptut? -- Thanks
    Nov 27, 2014. 03:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Seadrill's Dividend Suspension Is Actually A Bullish Indicator [View article]
    RE: - "Plus, Seadrill's fundamentals should recover as long as oil prices don't continue to collapse."
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    Hi Bob, thanks for the article. I would focus on your above point. I actually do believe we may be at a major tipping point in the oil markets, and that there's a good chance oil prices will continue to collapse. -- Two things I've read recently on excess capacity in the coming years:

    1) US oil production has increased about 4 mmbpd in the past five years, and is projected by some to increase another 4-5 mmbpd in the next few years. 2) Iran anticipates doubling its output from 3+ mmbpd to 6 mmbpd if the sanctions are removed. -- Other examples of excess capacity abound.

    It looks as if OPEC has become ineffective, and perhaps more importantly, could possibly disintegrate as each strives to look out for their own self-interest in a world looking at other energy developments. Just two:

    1) Natural gas is 1/3 the price it was relatively recently, and has only just begun to replace oil as an energy source. 2) The new EPA mileage requirements enacted at the beginning of the Obama administration will continue to be a huge check on future oil demand.

    Other developments:

    1) Lighting, which consumes a 1/4 of all electricity in the US, could become many times more efficient with the advent of LED lighting. 2) Solar plus storage is rapidly becoming cost competitive with fossil fuels, even without government subsidies.

    For years, I've heard about the "premium" that was priced into the global oil price. These things go in cycles, often for years at a time, in both directions. I don't see why oil prices couldn't go down a quite a bit further, and stay there for years. Not good for SDRL or most other fossil fuel companies.
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    P.S. I do acknowledge that various geopolitical risks could at times temporarily offset this pricing scenario. However, I doubt they would fundamentally change it. We're living in an age of innovation, and oil may be at the beginning of a long-term downward trend. -- Not necessarily a bad thing.
    Nov 27, 2014. 03:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: Welcome To The Cheapest Oil Producer Worldwide (Part 2) [View article]
    Badger, here's a link to Value Digger's fairly comprehensive latest update:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Don't know if there's a glitch with SA, but when I posted this afternoon, none of the other posts from earlier today, including Value Digger's, was to be seen.
    Nov 26, 2014. 11:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: Welcome To The Cheapest Oil Producer Worldwide (Part 2) [View article]
    Hey Value Digger,

    My buy order exercised in this morning @ .222--was surprised to see what happened afterwards. What do you make of today's price action? -- Thanks.
    .........................

    EDIT: Just found this 3Q Report [http://bit.ly/1rfD1C2]

    Funds flow of $1.0 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2014 were down from from $18.2 million for the previous quarter. The third quarter funds flow results were primarily impacted by the following events:

    Production interruptions on the Suroriente Block from July 15, 2014 (the closing date of the acquisition) to September 22, 2014 due to community blockades. With the reduced production levels, a number of fixed operating costs are still required in order to keep the Suroriente fields operational. This, coupled with increased water handling costs on the Maracas field, helped to increase the Company's average production cost per barrel from $5/bbl in the second quarter of 2014 to over $15/bbl in the current quarter, with an estimated impact on funds flow of approximately $5 million;

    One time transactions costs of $7.8 million for the acquisition of Suroco, an increase of approximately $6.6 million over the prior quarter, with a corresponding reduction to comparative funds flow;

    Increased general and administration costs resulting from the intergration of a strong organization with in depth knowledge of the Colombian sedimentary basins into the Petroamerica operations. Overall, general and adminstrative costs were approximately $1.6 million higher in the third quarter than in the second quarter of 2014. The Company is taking steps to review the current operations to ensure that any synergies and savings available from the combined operations are realised; and

    Lower realised oil prices as a result of the general world-wide decline in oil price. Realised prices in the current quarter were $94.59/bbl, an almost $11/bbl decrease from the second quarter of 2014, resulting in an estimated reduction in funds flow of approximately $5 million.
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    Most of these items are considered as 'one-time' events and are not expected to have a continuing effect on the future results of the Company. Additionally, constructive government and local community negotiations should address the social issues that resulted in the community blockades in the first place.
    Nov 26, 2014. 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is Hilariously Undervalued Right Now [View article]
    Just re-read this article, and decided to put in an order. Discovered there's a $50 "Foreign Ordinary" fee attached. My CSchwab broker said the F at the end indicates it's traded on a foregin exchange. Turns out LNREF is traded on an Australian exchange, which he said he would be more comfortable with than some other foreign exchanges. I'm curious why "Lonestar" Resources would be trading on a foreign exchange. -- Any replies appreciated.
    Nov 25, 2014. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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