Bartlesby

Not Out of the Bear Market Yet

Agreed Macro Man - we are far from out of the woods. I would recommend qualifying any data that comes directly from Chinese officials with independent market data. The Baltic Dry index, and particularly the charter rates for Capesize vessels (which carry the Australian thermal coal you referenced), can serve as a good qualifier for gauging Chinese industrial activity.

We should also be wary to assume that a Chinese rebound will lead the global economy out of the dark. The China-US relationship is predicated on Chinese production and US consumption. The path to recovery may very well require the Chinese to develop their domestic consumer economy, while the US must save and produce more.