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Dallas dude

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  • Apple Watch Edition: Price - Simple Logic [View article]
    This isn't any new idea, back during the dot com bubble we were at the COMDEX in Vegas. Walked away with Sony cameras which took pictures on to floppy discs. Then we took a watch which was full of gadgets. It didn't catch on, which wasn't our core business. We just wired the buildings of schools/public offices/corporations and would put computers together as a bonus. The Sony camera did come in handy as we would take a photo of their building and throw the floppy into the decision makers computer, so the sale was a done deal. The issue of buying printers and other computer related items was less than plug and play. The dot com's weren't providing the customer service and was stretched too thin. I recall going onto DOS screens and typing in "Hi Mem something" and the windows would icon driven menu would come on and Netscape was the browser maker. Then today I see HTC and Galaxy had large screen superior to Apple cell phones, which I preferred, and the RED HAT open source platform, which allows cheaper applications. However, Apple who didn't exactly come up with anything better, just caught Sony/WALKMAN asleep and the birth of the IPOD and I Eco system which I failed to see. Apple has amazed me and they never sleep with their continuous improvement/innovation. As to their going after Netflix, the technology is changing and the un-bundling of the cable companies/premium channels is going to be interesting. As Netflix caught Blockbuster asleep, I'd thought that the brick and mortar of Game Stop would be up for grabs. However, it came it with a wonderful quarter and still lives. BTW the new Galaxy has the pay by phone application, is all metal and has sleek lines. The pads are what haven't caught on and the larger screen phones maybe the reason? There are two companies which test and prototype many of the electronics which later become creature comforts. Flextronics of Singapore and Sanmina of San Jose, California are great plays as the product cycle shortens. I live for the double digit single day returns and bio-techs are more promising/attractive to myself. XON aka INTREXON CORPORATION is said to be the next Apple in the bio-tech arena and last night they gave me a taste. ILMN aka ILLUMINA INC is also on that leading edge. Nano and genetic technology are at the stage which a small spec investment may make you millions. Do we have anyone here who had Apple back in the 2000's and kept it? I got in a year or so prior to the last split and have no illusions of it making me six digits. I should/could have purchased it when Forrest Gump came out. Think about the IPhone wasn't out when that movie came out.
    Mar 4, 2015. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Facebook Is A Better Investment Than Google On Digital Video [View article]
    You do know that Google makes about 4 billion off U Tube? I would opt to use Google, since the FB growth isn't growing. "Facebook Inc. is struggling to meet investors' expectations, as the social network's revenue growth shrank for at least the fifth consecutive quarter while costs soared."
    Mar 1, 2015. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Lessons From The Frontline [View article]
    BTW, I did meet Earl Halliburton in Duncan OK and know the Welsh Foundation, my oldest was a Welsh Scholar.
    Mar 1, 2015. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Lessons From The Frontline [View article]
    You have to see the whole picture. Then when you see the whole picture, you see it is but a small piece of the even bigger puzzle. Recall when Sears was the number one retailer. Today it is but a real estate holding company as its assets are worth more than their retail. I'd rather enjoy the 40% yearly Fidelity Select bio-techs have given me the last three years. I had no energy or foreign holdings other than Alibaba. I'm being more pragmatic in looking at these drilling outfits morphing into under water mining, keeping in mind not to destroy the micro organisms of the 70% of what the planet is covered in; water. Most people are ignorant to the number one concern in the environment; top soil. So there is opportunity if we give up this notion that fossil fuel is nearing its end. To prolong the industry, the OPEC knows that higher prices mean more exploration, substitutes and alternatives. Recall the old, if your old enough, main frame computer makers? Burroughs, UNIVAC, NCR, Control Data Corporation, Honeywell and kick in IBM too. 3000 hedge funds closed and their performance is not as advertised, being the special people, yet no better or worse off than an S&P ETF. Some have gone the way of ENRON in that they are no longer in business. Not to say that they were nefarious like ENRON, however, some people insist on going down with a sinking ship. Who would have though that Exxon would be smaller than Apple? My oldest is a ChemE and he would go nuke, go figure as millennials see the world. I assure you that OPEC held prices higher than equilibrium and thereby distorted a market. The lower prices will prolong fossil fuel and a transition to natural gas. This is a game changer this time and if anything, I see $20 or $25 oil as the new normal.
    Mar 1, 2015. 11:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Lessons From The Frontline [View article]
    Would that selling in a panic apply to ENRON too?
    Mar 1, 2015. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Lessons From The Frontline [View article]
    It was Goldman Sachs who said the oil would be $135 or so in 2014. I too worked in the oil industry back in the 80's. So you have storage tanks floating around with refined product and even after the cap ex cuts, they continue to produce at record levels; as they have moved to their best producing wells. Years ago, I asked where exactly is the strategic reserve kept? They indicated they used storage tanks for the refined product for the most part and the rest went back onto the very well it came from. Midland/Odessa and Pinky are in glut situation and so are all of the others. OPEC is dead set on reducing the fracking; Saudis for sure. We seem to forget that price is only a rationing mechanism and you certainly see price at the pump? Then at high prices, we in economics have this substitute/alternative theory. That may explain the CAFE standards and energy efficiency ratings on most products. SEER on air conditioning, R value on insulation and a number of other energy savings measures. So I see the substitute/alternative theory would mean a sooner end to the fossil fuel economy and I suspect the Saudi's see this too and thereby are willing to allow oil to go to its equilibrium price and prolong the fossil fuel economy. Solar panels, windmills, fracking and other under takings are also substitute/alternative theory at work. Remember price is but a rationing mechanism and the higher the price, the more exploration and substitute/alternative are sought. OPEC is a cartel, which incidentally are illegal in America, yet American companies enjoyed their price fixing. Hence, you had a distorted market in energy. This isn't going to be the traditional/historical business cycle we have seen prior. "A temporary downturn in the market does not equal a long-term trend"
    Mar 1, 2015. 10:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advantage Oil & Gas: Great Candidate For Natural Gas Investors [View article]
    After a record cold winter and the price of natural gas, isn't even close to last years? I'm on record that oil prices will go down to their equilibrium level of $20 to $25 a barrel and natural gas could and should be converted to and exported to meet the growing demand. Unfortunately there are only two ports to date which can ship natural gas. Then this storage situation of oil isn't exactly accurate. Back in the 80's I asked where the strategic supply was stored, they said some in storage tanks, mostly the refined and the rest in the well, which it was pumped out of. The $135 2014 Goldman Sach prediction of the price of oil created this great domestic exploration boom and perhaps ended OPEC as a cartel. The cut back in cap ex isn't doing much in the way of cutting back production. If anything the refining capacity is an issue as the mix for the summer blend, an explosion in at a California refinery and labor disputes might keep the price at the pump high for sometime. The ChemE and PetroE people are STEM educated who are the goose who lays the golden eggs in all of the fields of energy. I wouldn't expect savings and or concessions from that end. The blue collar job loss is going to become a reality, which should be offset more so as consumers spend less at the pump.
    Mar 1, 2015. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Income Update February 2015 [View article]
    Kinder Morgan and Hasbro are to my liking in that their growth and thereby the stock price is likely to have more upside. AT&T is too risky. They are Southern Western Bell, who opted to use the AT&T name. The margins in the business are likely to face competitive pressure. They did increase their market share with their one time Apple I Phone exclusivity. However, that is over and T Mobile, Verizon, Sprint and others look to increase their share of the wireless market. Their U verse cable business is a loser in the end of the bundling era and net neutrality. I'd stay away from it until the price per share reflects these downward pressures. Then again, I love buying dividend payers at a discount, during market down cycles, and selling them as their price comes back to its P/E and or 52 week high. I know many high dividend payers, who use that high dividend to lure buyers, many are in the energy industry and are substitutes for hi yield bonds aka junk bonds. Kinder Morgan is a classic example of throwing out the baby with the bath water since, they aren't energy producers, but rather the pipeline/refining part of the industry.
    Mar 1, 2015. 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • These 3 Numbers Give Investors A Peek Into Chipotle's Future [View article]
    I can eat there two meals a day for the rest of my life, with what I've made there in three years. Then too, I could drink a Monster each meal.
    Feb 28, 2015. 07:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Portfolio Review And Reflections On The Last 7 Years [View article]
    I too thought that smaller positions were more ideal and that staying 25% liquid, so if 2008 happened again, I'd have no problem waiting. ETF's, Fidelity Selects, mutual funds whose managers merit consideration, easing into dividend payers only when dip occur (I like the dividend and rising stock prices/doing the opposite as their prices rise), and 250K mad money. I got heavy exposure to the bio-techs and then some of my favorites. Sketchers, Monster, Dave and Busters, Entertainment Arts, Apple, Under Armor, Nike, Salesforce, Red Hat. Google, Chipotle, Costco, Kroger, Southwest Airlines, Take Two, White Wave, Whole Foods, Hains Celestial. Harmon Int, the big four in bio-tech plus two others. Then as very promising specs INTREXON CORP and ILLUMINA INC. This is the smart man's/woman's best practice portfolio PERIOD. I think best practice (which you coin best ideas) and as the economy changes, little if any changes are needed. Then when I see my offspring in Austin, I noticed a good portion of the people there derived their living off the market day trading and on margins. So, I too have a bet on earnings on a weekly basis during quarterly earnings periods. I'd say 90% of the time I can make a good bet, however, it's only 80% of the time your rewarded because of their inability in guidance. Unfortunately, I didn't have a position in T Mobile, however, their CEO is not stereotypical and delivers/communicates well. I'm being Frank!!!
    Feb 28, 2015. 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Portfolio Review And Reflections On The Last 7 Years [View article]
    I have the opposite, my outside of the 401K is much larger than the 401K. As Cramer says, only put into it the amount that they will match. So the one I fund the 401K yearly isn't as productive as the Vanguard, Fidelity, T Rowe Price, Schwab. Reason being that your restricted and if I was to put half of 401K into a self directed, I'd pay double on fees and even a load on mutual funds which are no load. Hence, the outside the 401K accounts which were funded one time are light years ahead. After we made too much as a couple, we weren't allowed to contribute to outside IRA's. As to the ETF's you have to aware that I opted to avoid energy and overseas last year. If an ETF has a 10% programmed energy exposure, if they lose half of the 10%, they will reallocate to keep you in energy. My stock picking was 30% last year and 10% already this year. I seek and know the best mutual fund managers, as only 30% managed to meet and or beat their prospective benchmark last year. The hedge funds are pathetic with 3000 closing last year and 9000 left, most did worse than the S&P. Goldman Sach telling everyone that $135 a barrel isn't an economically prudent idea. The silly idea that oil is going to come back as it has historically is insane. I hear them speaking about just keeping the best producers going and cutting Cap Ex. They have no earthly idea of the oil business and the storage capacity. In the 80's I asked where the strategic reserve was kept. They told of the refined and went on to tell me they used the very wells to store oil. Then again, I saw the sub-prime coming, sold my home, rented for three years and still can't understand why anyone would consider a housing boom in the latter years of the baby boomer population as sane? Ironic that your brokerage account is the opposite of mine as opposed to the 401K. I'm looking at the $20 to $25 as the new price of oil and that the OPEC has for years kept that market distorted. The idea of their ignorance of the substitute/alternative theories in economics is astounding for these brilliant money managers.
    Feb 28, 2015. 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happens To REITs If (More Like When) Inflation Goes Wild [View article]
    My son is a ChemE, they fly him around the nation to apply for jobs which all have had signing bonuses, moving allowance and over 80K to start. If all else fails, schools at the compulsory level have an extreme shortage of math and science teachers. I've never had an issue getting hired and have worked for 32 years at my present position, which allowed me to send my children to private schools, own an enormous house and amass over seven digits in brokerage accounts. I have no mortgage and or car payments. When you apply for a job there is a section for education in the resume/application. Add an MBA or law degree and your more attractive than others who lack these. You fail to see the internet, cell phones and other creature comforts we take for granted aren't the ideas of idiots.
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happens To REITs If (More Like When) Inflation Goes Wild [View article]
    I stay away from them for the reason the may be cheaper in that they aren't actively managed and have logarithms which may keep you exposed to certain industries which a prudent person would avoid. Last year I wanted no energy exposure, so if you have a 5% or 10% programmed into the ETF, after you lose 50% it will go back and buy more. I avoided energy and overseas last year, other than Alibaba, which I took a small position in. Yet I saw my Vanguard ETF doing what I wasn't doing in Fidelity, Schwab and T.Rowe Price.
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happens To REITs If (More Like When) Inflation Goes Wild [View article]
    Did your property taxes go down after the sub-prime and did you brag about it? Has your property tax bill come back to the prior Bush Jr 2008 sub-prime level? Has the price at the pump go down about a third? Storage locker, if you don't use it in a year, you don't need it. Lean your treasured possessions and turn them into cash.
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happens To REITs If (More Like When) Inflation Goes Wild [View article]
    You fail to mention the entitlement of the baby boomers are included as their money is held in treasuries. So when you purchased your home did you pay for it in cash? Did that home cost two or three time your annual compensation?
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment