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papayamon

papayamon
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  • Stockpile Drawdown Signals Strong Coal Rebound [View article]
    you're already in... why not sell calls if you want to get out? then at least you'll get some thing headed out the door - and if it doesn't get called, you keep the money. i'm in about 21.50 after buying and selling, so i wait for a couple of days until the price is over 20 and sell the $21 call. even if it doesn't get taken, if i can get a dollar for the call, now i'm in at 20.50.. then i can do the same thing going forward. i do this a lot and often buy the calls back on the price drops. so you are trading 2 things.. the stock and the call. the point is there are things you can do that are proactive if you've given up on a stock and just want to get your money back. i think btu is going to be a solid investment from here and i'm merely looking to trade around for a better basis.

    if sentiment returns to growth, this stock has very good upside. i think qe3 is a done deal, and the central banks are going to put a lot of liquidity in the system. i wouldn't get too discouraged just yet.

    of course, it's your money
    Jul 26 04:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Investors Need To Be Looking In The Coal Sector Right Now [View article]
    interesting arch gets downgraded to hold, anr goes down more than arch. if anr doesn't make 6 by 8/18/12, then i guess i'll have enough of it that i won't need to worry about buying any more to hold. i'll be in these new shares at 5.70. all in all, not a bad place to be.

    i'm getting ready to call a bottom in anr stock at 5.50. in fact, i'm doing just that now :). maybe i'll be off a quarter, but that's close enough to make me happy. if it hits $5.50 i'll buy another 5k shares and sell the sept $5 call. if anr goes belly up, i'll be following in mark anthony's footsteps :).
    Jul 26 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Peabody Energy For 230% Upside [View article]
    it's just the outlook and general business environment for commodity producers is so bad. i would think that there are not too many surprises here to slam the whole industry. nonetheless, we'll probably see continued sliding.
    Jul 25 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Investors Need To Be Looking In The Coal Sector Right Now [View article]
    this is getting brutal :). anr broke 6.00. i have to say anr is a buy at 6.00. sentiment couldn't be more in the toilet if anr's management said "we've lost all our customers and will never sell another piece of coal'.

    getting ready to move money and make a buy in the next day or so.
    Jul 25 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake: A Strong Natural Gas Play At $17 [View article]
    the way the market is looking, i'm wondering the title shouldn't be changed to "Chesapeake: A Strong Natural Gas Play At $7".
    Jul 24 03:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Peabody Energy For 230% Upside [View article]
    i hope you sold and are just sitting outside of it. i wish i had. :(.
    Jul 24 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Westport Innovations To Benefit From Boom In Natural Gas Cars [View article]
    steve, i work as an e.r. nurse, and i'm here to tell you that if most working people had the slightest idea about how totally misused and wasted their tax money is supporting people who are able bodied, don't work, and use medical resources as a hobby, they'd be furious. the problem is beyond huge. i'm talking extended families working the system, with EVERY ONE of them on disability for things like bipolar disorder, etc. as able bodied as you and me, but not working because they are "disabled". and they run to the er for the slightest thing, constantly seeking narcotics.

    it is nothing for society to spend $10 to $20k for a fake chest pain workup by someone hoping to get narcotics. this is routinely routinely done every single day. these people are on medicaid, and they don't pay nickle one. nothing. some have had 3 or 4 workups in the last year, with absolutely no abnormal finding and and ultimate diagnosis of "nonspecific chest pain" - for which they get xanax to take like it's candy. but the uninsured person who actually works a job, pays taxes,contributes to society and pays their bills is completely shut out of the medical system because they are billed huge amounts if they dare even to poke their nose in the door. i personally went to a hospital's quick care clinic, was seen for approximately 2 minutes by a doctor, got one shot of steroid (hurt my back). the doctor bill alone was over $1,000. this with no tests, nothing.

    entitlements are a nightmare threatening the very viability of our system. it has nothing to do with the subject here at hand, but it is obvious that the u.s. titanic is sailing straight into an iceberg.

    1/3 of the entire state budget of florida goes for a single item: medicaid. not roads, not schools, but for the care of people who don't produce squat for society and are utterly irresponsible in wasting the taxpayer's money. i could go on and on with what i've seen, and it's no different anywhere anywhere i've been, from florida to texas, it's the same disaster.

    ahem :).
    Jul 24 12:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Investors Need To Be Looking In The Coal Sector Right Now [View article]
    oh, just making a comment based on what's going on in the market today. with btu coming out with such a poor 3rd quarter outlook, the market is going to want substantive proof that things are turning the corner before we have any kind of rally. how is this going to happen before september 21 (last day of summer)?

    now, had btu substantially beaten expectations and projected better 3rd quarter numbers, that would have been huge the other way. i expect to see only sideways trading opportunities. we could well see anr test $6. if btu is the shining star of coal companies, the 3rd quarter isn't looking very good.
    Jul 24 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Investors Need To Be Looking In The Coal Sector Right Now [View article]
    i think we have our answer on this summer's coal rally :).
    Jul 24 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Investors Need To Be Looking In The Coal Sector Right Now [View article]
    i read somewhere that CAPP coal needs $4 NG to cover costs. how this was arrived at, i haven't bothered to investigate. china is far from out of the woods (still contracting) and europe is a continuing basket case. we are running out of summer :).

    i sold the $9 august call for anr when the price was in the 7's. as i've said before, if the stock gets called at 9, i'll buy mark anthony's hat and post a youtube video of myself eating it :).
    Jul 24 05:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We're Concerned About James River's Liquidity [View article]
    let's say jrcc does indeed survive. what sort of price target can we project for a modest recovery in coal prices? wouldn't NG have to hit the $4 range to fully cover costs for their thermal coal?

    i am long 2k jrcc at about 2.70. i think about getting my money back but if the price got up to 2.70, then i'd start getting greedy and thinking.. hmmm... could this thing hit $5? :).
    Jul 24 04:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Westport Innovations To Benefit From Boom In Natural Gas Cars [View article]
    a politician with any sense would do anything possible to encourage putting u.s. natural gas against importing opec's oil instead of having it crush the coal industry while we continue to fund opec. we should be building new cleaner coal plants and using nat gas for long haul trucking and railroads. we should have aggressive policy that encourages the use of natural gas to replace petroleum anywhere it is feasible. it is very simple: aim every bit of natural gas we can produce at destroying oil imports until we don't import a single drop of oil.

    i hope romney will jump all over this because it will save/create jobs and keep the american consumer's money in america. unfortunately, big oil wants to keep the status quo, and we end up funding both sides of any military action in the mideast. what's going on is disgusting. i watch my country being ravaged with this nonsense. between paying opec and providing entitlements for people who don't produce a damn thing for society, this country is going to hell in a hand basket.
    Jul 24 02:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake: A Strong Natural Gas Play At $17 [View article]
    i don't see another possibility than NG taking a big share of the long haul trucking industry. it's simply too cheap vs diesel. when 1-10 has fueling stations across the country, there will be a lot of goods moved with nat gas. in the next few years, it will start with a trickle that becomes a river.

    that said, i'd like to move 1/2 of my chk investment to another nat gas player. AM and his shenanigans have crippled this company. i would love to see a buyout :).
    Jul 24 02:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iron Ore Margins Can't Last [View article]
    great article and great discussion by all :).
    Jul 24 12:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Investors Need To Be Looking In The Coal Sector Right Now [View article]
    i have to wonder what we call a "rally" here. if a stock is down from $50 to $6.50 and it goes to $8, has it rallied? for my money, a move by anr to $10 would be a rally, but others may have different opinions.

    how are we going to have a rally this summer? nat gas prices aren't going to $4 any time soon. we are only beginning to explore the china slowdown and any solution in europe won't happen in the next few months. the fundamentals that have brought coal (and to a lesser extent the entire mining sector) to its knees are still firmly in place.

    the summer is halfway over already. i sold an embarrassing amount of anr $6 covered calls, around 40% of my portfolio's buying power. that's easy money for 25 or so days. that and daytrading are the only ways i see to make money with coal this summer. i also hope for a buyout of wlt at $45.

    and for the record, i think we are still a bit early on natural gas, though a long term boom is assured.

    but don't get me wrong. i would absolutely LOVE a big coal/gas rally :). i just don't think it's in the realm of possibility, though i'd love to be wrong. i'd also like to hit the lotto. in the meantime, i do what i'm doing to cope with a sideways (yes, i think we are finally here at least) market.
    Jul 24 12:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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