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papayamon

papayamon
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  • Going Long On Arch Coal [View article]
    bought 2000 shares at 4.69, sold the april $5 call to knock 7 cents of the basis - call expired, just sold 5 of the may $5 call for 33 cents. ifit goes over 5.50, i'll sell the $6 may call on the rest. in short, i'm just toying around with it :).
    Apr 22 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Going Long On Arch Coal [View article]
    i'm afraid he's floating on his yacht in the carribean, working on his new book "how i made 50 billion investing in pcx and jrcc". he doesn't need us anymore.
    Apr 22 04:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still Too Much Uncertainty At SandRidge [View article]
    i really wonder how deep watsa supports ward. in talk, yes. he sure seemed to stay out of the tpg fray, and he has ignored dinakar singh's accusations. watsa is going to sit back and make money on the company sale and give ward lip service but nothing else.
    Apr 22 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still Too Much Uncertainty At SandRidge [View article]
    nothing material will happen till ward goes. i'm hoping he leaves in may when he realizes he's getting fired with cause. it's obvious that he's royally pissed off dinakar singh with the side transactions and they are going after ward for return of company monies. so my bet is that they'll settle sometime in may and ward will resign without parachute and they'll let him keep what he's taken with the side transactions.
    Apr 22 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still Too Much Uncertainty At SandRidge [View article]
    which ultimately begs the question: at what price?
    Apr 22 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy (CHK) will allow ex-CEO Aubrey McClendon to acquire oil and gas holdings adjacent to CHK's wells in which he is a part-owner, altering the terms of an earlier agreement. CHK will pay McClendon nearly $50M in severance and allow him the use of a company aircraft. The relaxed terms ought to come in handy as he opens a new energy business a half-mile from his old office. [View news story]
    nor is it a disaster like sandridge. but the thing about this is mcclendon was rewarded when he took the company public and sold shares in the ipo. beyond that, he is only due the pay that is customary for a ceo of this size enterprise.

    and this is what mcclendon just couldn't seem to grasp. you can't sell something and still own it too.

    in a private company, you can do whatever you want. all the money is yours. when you sell this to become public, you then have a fiduciary duty to shareholders if you are going to stay on as ceo.
    Apr 21 04:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Activists Win, Why Is The Stock Down? [View article]
    tpg is in a quiet period until june 15th, i believe. in the meantime, the shorts will have their way. the thing to do is take advantage and buy more now at this very low price. sentiment will change soon.

    tpg will keep the productive folks in place and cut the overhead. remember, sd has been spending about 3 times as much on overhead as peers.

    tpg will be more selective about capital spending, but that means discipline as opposed to (going for broke but i'll take a huge salary in the meantime) tom ward.

    ward will be gone in june at the latest, possibly sooner. this will end very well for those smart enough to buy in here.
    Apr 20 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Activists Win, Why Is The Stock Down? [View article]
    yes, this was the action of a desperate board trying to keep control by spreading fear. when monkeys fly from my butt, i'll worry about this.. but not until then.

    tpg will whip this company in shape. with 200 million invested, these guys know what they're doing. there will be no immediate default because tom ward leaves.

    that's laughable!
    Apr 20 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts say Freeport McMoRan (FCX +1.4%) may need to raise its buyout bid for Plains Exploration (PXP +1.8%) to secure support from PXP stockholders ahead of initial drilling results from the key Phobos project in the Gulf of Mexico. Since the ~$50/share buyout was announced, FCX shares have slid 24%, reducing the value of the deal to ~$44/share. [View news story]
    the idea of further decimating fcx stock is going to really infuriate shareholders. what could this possibly do except make us even less confident in management.

    fcx should definitely look at buying another company if it has to get into oil/gas !
    Apr 18 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Ignites Coal Trade [View article]
    the trick here is not to get nailed in the meantime. i've always been a seller of calls when i held btu, and it helps me work the basis down. if the stock pops, i lose it.. but it has a way of falling back down so i can buy it again. :). only got 1000 shares at this time.... the the $21 call expiring tomorrow, i might lose it. but i bet i get it back cheaper within a few days.

    these coal stocks are whipsawed. aci and anr are also great trading stocks.
    Apr 18 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts say Freeport McMoRan (FCX +1.4%) may need to raise its buyout bid for Plains Exploration (PXP +1.8%) to secure support from PXP stockholders ahead of initial drilling results from the key Phobos project in the Gulf of Mexico. Since the ~$50/share buyout was announced, FCX shares have slid 24%, reducing the value of the deal to ~$44/share. [View news story]
    as a shareholder of fcx.. heck no!. they were already overpaying for that deal in the first place. if they want to get in the oil and gas business so badly, why don't they form a new company or aquire someone else (unrelated) at a real arm's length transaction?. this deal doesn't pass the smell test for insider profiteering.
    Apr 18 12:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy (BTU): Q1 EPS of -$0.05 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $1.75B (-14% Y/Y) misses by $0.03B. (PR[View news story]
    btu is the best of breed, for sure :). we should return to profitability later this year :).
    Apr 18 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Private label brand breakthrough: A survey released by Deloitte on brand loyalty could rattle the food and grocery sectors as a whopping 94% of consumers indicate they will stick with private-label or store brands instead of reverting back to costlier options. Industry insiders think even if the economy comes roaring back, a paradigm shift  of consumer attitudes toward food purchases may already be entrenched. The trend could favor Treehouse Foods (THS), Safeway (SWY), Kroger (KR), Costco (COST), Whole Foods Market (WFM) - while creating a headache for Kellogg (K), Post Holdings (POST), Campbell Soup (CPB), Kraft Foods (KRFT), and General Mills (GIS). [View news story]
    as far as health goes, i believe that one shouldn't eat dairy, gluten or
    any meat except omege 3 rich fish (and this on rare occasion). not to mention sugar.

    as far as business goes, it would be a disaster for food companies if people started eating brown rice and beans :). not to mention just how profitable obesity is for the health care industry.
    Apr 18 08:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Natural Gas Prices Are Impacting Coal [View article]
    i picked up btu at 19.50 if it isn't called at 20.

    if i had more $$ to invest, i'd make a big buy on aci and jrcc (jrcc just for short term trading)
    Apr 18 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Worried About A Silver Selloff? Buy Silver Wheaton Instead [View article]
    you have to also consider the growing production. if the production grows from 33 to 50+ million ounces of silver by 2017, your assumption of flat revenue isn't valid. so that 550 million of profit should turn into 50/33 x 550 = 833 million.

    in the long run, silver wheaton will get at least the cost to mine silver plus a "normal" profit, because the competition (which is directly in the silver mining business) can't produce below cost in the long run.

    in the meantime, we are going to wind up with inflation. though we are head over heels in a commodity "crash", commodities can't be produced below cost after inventories are depleted. we will wind up with cost push inflation, and production will continue. silver wheaton has a solid business model.

    i would like to say that i certainly do see good value in shell (your investment choice) as well. both of these belong in my long term portfolio.
    Apr 17 09:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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