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papayamon

papayamon
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  • Where's Natural Gas Going Next? [View article]
    actually air, it was a combination of both. however, just took a 6k loss on wlt... so now i'm only up 4k on coal :(.

    i am playing sd because i think it's going to be sold as soon as tom ward is out. my intention here is to hold until liquidation or buyout.

    after this i'm going to be much, much less active with my portfolio, just going to buy dividend producers and spread it out pretty good. then whatever happens, happens... though i'm of course going to pick solid companies with moderate dividend payouts.

    i'm starting my software company this summer (making test preparation software/video) and trading is just too much of a distraction :).
    Apr 4 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bankrupt Patriot Coal (PCXCQ.OB) and its creditors are looking at whether the firm's spinoff from Peabody Energy (BTU) in 2007 was a "fraudulent transfer" aimed at relieving the latter of retiree health and pension benefits, problematic mines and other liabilities. Patriot and the creditors could gain "a sizable recovery" if evidence of fraud is found. Peabody naturally denies that anything was amiss. [View news story]
    well, there's not doubt that btu spun off all their problems into a weaker pcx, but the crumbling of the coal market is what destroyed pcx, and i don't know how you'd go back after the fact and get btu to pay up.
    Apr 4 09:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Freeport-McMoRan Be The Next Commodity Stock To Roll Over? [View article]
    freeport has a much better balanced sheet than, say, the likes of wlt or clf. this alone, plus a dividend that isn't in danger, makes them a lot more stable than those businesses...

    and copper may weaken, but it's not going bust. if you're counting 31 as the "rollover" price, then it's already rolled over.
    Apr 4 08:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bankrupt Patriot Coal (PCXCQ.OB) and its creditors are looking at whether the firm's spinoff from Peabody Energy (BTU) in 2007 was a "fraudulent transfer" aimed at relieving the latter of retiree health and pension benefits, problematic mines and other liabilities. Patriot and the creditors could gain "a sizable recovery" if evidence of fraud is found. Peabody naturally denies that anything was amiss. [View news story]
    good luck with that!
    Apr 4 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ultra Petroleum Is Undervalued, But Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    iron, what is the price of gas they're projecting for that?
    Apr 3 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mississippian Proved Reserves Update: Osage Exploration [View article]
    hey dude, thanks for your input. i'm sitting on about 15400 shares of sandridge, slightly underwater for about 60 cents a share, and i'm just going to bury my head in the sand and wait for this thing to play out. win, lose or draw :). i may even buy a few thousand more shares if it keeps dipping.
    Apr 3 10:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mississippian Proved Reserves Update: Osage Exploration [View article]
    that's an interesting perspective. what is your take on chk's sale of the mississipian interest ?
    Apr 3 09:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mississippian Proved Reserves Update: Osage Exploration [View article]
    the problem, in general, is that these businesses have been largely valued by the assets they hold, but going forward valuation is going to be based more on how these assets are turned in real earnings. it is pretty obvious that there are a lot of overextended companies needing to sell assets - meaning this is going to be a time where they are sold for far less value than was assigned to them in the past.
    Apr 3 08:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mississippian Proved Reserves Update: Osage Exploration [View article]
    on ATXDY, it's cap is so small, and i don't think the market will be quick to realize value there. which hurts. for SD, i'm hoping that the change in management brings good corporate governance vs. the wild spending of tom ward. similar to what icahn is doing with chk. another issue is whether SD is able to drill fast enough to hold onto leases. do you think chk really did that badly on it's mississipian sale, or did ok? this, of course, has implications for all players.
    Apr 3 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mississippian Proved Reserves Update: Osage Exploration [View article]
    speaking of the mississipian, what is your opinion on sandridge josh?

    today it closed at 4.97, i believe.
    Apr 3 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The SandRidge Activist Investors Make A Big Mistake And Overvalue The Company? [View article]
    well, one cannot argue with history. we closed below $5. today at least sd didn't go down more proportionately vs the rest of the industry. i got out of chesapeake and made a few bucks, as the post mcclendon party didn't go as i'd hoped. it may well be that it's going to be the same for sd... a long recovery with prudent debt management and deleveraging and increased production as the only real movers of the stock. unless there is a major willing to swallow sd up, i can't imagine we'll see assets sales at anything better than fire sale pricing..

    this is going to be a long few months, and i'm expecting sd in the 4.50's., possibly worse if we get a major correction.
    Apr 3 07:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The SandRidge Activist Investors Make A Big Mistake And Overvalue The Company? [View article]
    deep, that's true, but that was true several months ago as well. one wouldn't buy sd on its currrent profits. i think that's pretty well known.

    obviously the quiet period before tom ward gets tossed out the door is hurting the stock in a disproportionate manner.
    Apr 2 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The SandRidge Activist Investors Make A Big Mistake And Overvalue The Company? [View article]
    the question, of course, is how low it will go until tom leaves? and wouldn't that represent an even better opportunity to buy in?

    i'm very curious to see if kellet and tpg make big buys at this level.
    Apr 2 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The SandRidge Activist Investors Make A Big Mistake And Overvalue The Company? [View article]
    interesting price action on sd. clearly pressing down to below $5.00.
    i wonder where we'll find the bottom in the next few months before the ceo departs. looks to be not very good, with no catalyst to move the price up (at least unitl earnings).

    at this level, i wonder who's buying?
    Apr 2 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walter Energy: To Buy Or Not To Buy? [View article]
    closed at 24.15 today, big volume. this is historically a high volatility stock, and while i'm upside down, i'm going to sit on this and wait for a better met coal market.

    audley capital, whom i've researched a bit... is a joke. clearly not capable of improving the current board.

    it's going to be bad for coal companies until china heats up and europe begins to recover. in the meantime, i'm hoping this has already pressed most of the air from wlt.

    on the bright side, it can only go down another $24.15 :).
    Apr 2 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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