Worried About A Silver Selloff? Buy Silver Wheaton Instead [View article]
you have to also consider the growing production. if the production grows from 33 to 50+ million ounces of silver by 2017, your assumption of flat revenue isn't valid. so that 550 million of profit should turn into 50/33 x 550 = 833 million.
in the long run, silver wheaton will get at least the cost to mine silver plus a "normal" profit, because the competition (which is directly in the silver mining business) can't produce below cost in the long run.
in the meantime, we are going to wind up with inflation. though we are head over heels in a commodity "crash", commodities can't be produced below cost after inventories are depleted. we will wind up with cost push inflation, and production will continue. silver wheaton has a solid business model.
i would like to say that i certainly do see good value in shell (your investment choice) as well. both of these belong in my long term portfolio.
SandRidge Energy: Activists Win, Why Is The Stock Down? [View article]
oh yes, i'm still in and still buying. i think we could see $4 on this one. the quiet period is deadly as the shorts can just batter this one all over the place.
i wouldn't count on getting $10. i'm going along for the ride till the very end but i think we're not gonna see 10. we are in a hard time to sell with so much bad action on commodities, imo.
Worried About A Silver Selloff? Buy Silver Wheaton Instead [View article]
i really don't think this is going to last that long. if it gets to the point where nothing is worth producing, supplies will dry up. we're in the middle of a panic on commodities. this too shall pass :).
ari, my bet here is pretty short term, in that i think it will be flipped and sold in the next 6 months. sure, oil prices may move and i do think there is undoubtedly downside risk. but even if i get $6 i'll still make something. i think if oil holds its current price and the outlook for nat gas is positive, the company should go for $8-9.
i honestly don't have much in the way of thoughts about useg or ssn. i tend to avoid the thinly traded ultra low price stocks. if i had fresh money to invest, i'd put it in upl.
i don't think you can really lose on nat gas if you invest in a company with low cost of production and low overhead (and isn't leveraged to the moon). there's a lot of back peddling going on where companies rushed to lease properties and now they want whatever they can get for them instead of developing them. so this is not the best time to sell assets - which really dims the prospects of buying a company that's overextended and needs to unload assets - SD is one of them.
but i am certainly betting more on the knowledge of watsa and singh than my own ability to analyze these things. these guys have hundreds of millions in sd and i am sure they have access to information i don't have and they have really put the pencil to it..
and you are definitely right about macroeconomic concerns. this is the era of volatility.
it looks like prem watsa was right about commodity weakness, though he likes natural gas. fortunately, he also seems convinced that sd is going to be cut up and sold off in a money making way. between watsa and dinakar singh, i'm feeling like i'll at least break even here. the next big thing is earnings and then the purging of tom ward. i am betting that the stupidity and scams walk out the door on ward's back.
i raised the stakes to around 33k shares with jan 14 $3 calls.. in at about 5.35, all in all.
Worried About A Silver Selloff? Buy Silver Wheaton Instead [View article]
i'm gonna sit on my silver wheaton. looking at the history, it's pretty hard to buy that we'll be stuck below 30 forever. in the meantime, i'll sell out of the money calls for a little extra return.
silver will be in demand industrially without much of a substitute. the price can't get pushed below the price to mine for all that long, because it will drop production and then the price goes back up.
the key here is patience and collecting a dividend plus selling a few calls when the price creeps back up. we're in for a lot of volatility here, which means you can sell and buy back calls and work your basis down.
Private label brand breakthrough: A survey released by Deloitte on brand loyalty could rattle the food and grocery sectors as a whopping 94% of consumers indicate they will stick with private-label or store brands instead of reverting back to costlier options. Industry insiders think even if the economy comes roaring back, a paradigm shift of consumer attitudes toward food purchases may already be entrenched. The trend could favor Treehouse Foods (THS), Safeway (SWY), Kroger (KR), Costco (COST), Whole Foods Market (WFM) - while creating a headache for Kellogg (K), Post Holdings (POST), Campbell Soup (CPB), Kraft Foods (KRFT), and General Mills (GIS). [View news story]
baloney. store brands are inferior, period. give me good ol' corn flakes.. not "kroger" flakes. the economy comes roaring back, people are gonna eat the best tasting foods.
i don't care if ward grew up eating, breathing and farting oil and gas. the way this guy has handled himself in regard to his role as a ceo has been off the bottom of the charts. there is no need at all for watsa to kiss tom ward's behind. if watsa isn't being genuine, then that makes it a lot worse in my book .
now i'm not saying that watsa needs to say anything about negative about ward. he just doesn't need to praise him like tom ward is bill gates. and i do have to draw a sharp contrast to the statement that tom ward built up sandridge from nothing, unless the hard earned money that people paid in the ipo is "nothing." maybe the little people don't matter?
the more i type here, the less i respect watsa for praising tom ward.
i'm willing to bet you could give 90% of the people here the same money tom ward took from investors and they'd have done better investing in oil and gas. that's how sorry tom ward has been. the bottom 1% of the russell 1000? laughable!
Walter Energy: To Buy Or Not To Buy? [View article]
i dumped walter at 24, and took a big loss, though i plan on picking it up in the teens again. this is indeed a brutal commodities environment. it's obvious that wlt was trading stratospherically higher than it should have.
i'm looking for a much lower price/book. maybe that's not the ultimate metric, but it's one that's going to be satisfied before i put any more money on this horse.
i bought slw at 28.22, today i sold the 27.00 june call for 95 cents.
not what i wanted to do but it's a way to lower basis. the worst is i get 27.95 and lose a few hundred. but it looks like we're in for a tough couple of months, and i'd rather take my chances and have a lower basis. this could turn into a real mess, but the call is good so unless there is a truly huge drop, i think i can work my basis down.
i can understand the gold bubble, but i think silver will be ok in the medium term because the cost to mine will have to be covered and it's used industrially, without much of a substitute.
BlackBerry And Sandridge Doomed? Ask Prem Watsa And Sanjeev Parsad [View article]
tpg has well over 120 million in this investment. i am sure that tpg has more than done its due diligence as far as determining value and they are certain of their course of action.
tpg and singh gave up on tom ward. sd is going to be pared down and sold off.
i'm going to ride on tpg's back and hold till they liquidate. since i'm in cheaper than tpg, this is one return where i'll beat dinkar singh :). not an easy task!
BlackBerry And Sandridge Doomed? Ask Prem Watsa And Sanjeev Parsad [View article]
it absolutely stuns me that watsa is such a fan of tom ward's. here ward has a stock that is in the bottom 1% of all stocks in the russell 1000 in terms of performance , the very WORST energy stock in the rusell 1000, 3 times the overhead of any of it's peers.... a ceo who gets a board of lackeys to buy a 35 million dollar jet for a toy.
i don't get it. even if tom makes a good deal, he will burn it with overhead and compensation that borders on theft from stockholders - or is outright theft, depending on who you talk to.
sandridge was not built "out of nothing". sandridge was built out of the hard earned money that investors foolishly trusted with tom ward. when you're talking nothing, that's how much sandridge has made with tom ward at the helm... nothing!
i won't argue that watsa is brilliant, because he is. but wow, does this dude ever have a blind spot when it comes to the likes of tom ward.
Worried About A Silver Selloff? Buy Silver Wheaton Instead [View article]
in the long run, silver wheaton will get at least the cost to mine silver plus a "normal" profit, because the competition (which is directly in the silver mining business) can't produce below cost in the long run.
in the meantime, we are going to wind up with inflation. though we are head over heels in a commodity "crash", commodities can't be produced below cost after inventories are depleted. we will wind up with cost push inflation, and production will continue. silver wheaton has a solid business model.
i would like to say that i certainly do see good value in shell (your investment choice) as well. both of these belong in my long term portfolio.
SandRidge Energy: Activists Win, Why Is The Stock Down? [View article]
i wouldn't count on getting $10. i'm going along for the ride till the very end but i think we're not gonna see 10. we are in a hard time to sell with so much bad action on commodities, imo.
Worried About A Silver Selloff? Buy Silver Wheaton Instead [View article]
Worried About A Silver Selloff? Buy Silver Wheaton Instead [View article]
Worried About A Silver Selloff? Buy Silver Wheaton Instead [View article]
Where's Natural Gas Going Next? [View article]
i honestly don't have much in the way of thoughts about useg or ssn. i tend to avoid the thinly traded ultra low price stocks. if i had fresh money to invest, i'd put it in upl.
i don't think you can really lose on nat gas if you invest in a company with low cost of production and low overhead (and isn't leveraged to the moon). there's a lot of back peddling going on where companies rushed to lease properties and now they want whatever they can get for them instead of developing them. so this is not the best time to sell assets - which really dims the prospects of buying a company that's overextended and needs to unload assets - SD is one of them.
but i am certainly betting more on the knowledge of watsa and singh than my own ability to analyze these things. these guys have hundreds of millions in sd and i am sure they have access to information i don't have and they have really put the pencil to it..
Where's Natural Gas Going Next? [View article]
and you are definitely right about macroeconomic concerns. this is the era of volatility.
it looks like prem watsa was right about commodity weakness, though he likes natural gas. fortunately, he also seems convinced that sd is going to be cut up and sold off in a money making way. between watsa and dinakar singh, i'm feeling like i'll at least break even here. the next big thing is earnings and then the purging of tom ward. i am betting that the stupidity and scams walk out the door on ward's back.
i raised the stakes to around 33k shares with jan 14 $3 calls.. in at about 5.35, all in all.
Worried About A Silver Selloff? Buy Silver Wheaton Instead [View article]
silver will be in demand industrially without much of a substitute. the price can't get pushed below the price to mine for all that long, because it will drop production and then the price goes back up.
the key here is patience and collecting a dividend plus selling a few calls when the price creeps back up. we're in for a lot of volatility here, which means you can sell and buy back calls and work your basis down.
Private label brand breakthrough: A survey released by Deloitte on brand loyalty could rattle the food and grocery sectors as a whopping 94% of consumers indicate they will stick with private-label or store brands instead of reverting back to costlier options. Industry insiders think even if the economy comes roaring back, a paradigm shift of consumer attitudes toward food purchases may already be entrenched. The trend could favor Treehouse Foods (THS), Safeway (SWY), Kroger (KR), Costco (COST), Whole Foods Market (WFM) - while creating a headache for Kellogg (K), Post Holdings (POST), Campbell Soup (CPB), Kraft Foods (KRFT), and General Mills (GIS). [View news story]
BlackBerry And Sandridge Doomed? Ask Prem Watsa And Sanjeev Parsad [View article]
are you saying dinakar singh is being rude here? or just honest? he isn't anonymous.
http://bit.ly/11lHx0T
i don't care if ward grew up eating, breathing and farting oil and gas. the way this guy has handled himself in regard to his role as a ceo has been off the bottom of the charts. there is no need at all for watsa to kiss tom ward's behind. if watsa isn't being genuine, then that makes it a lot worse in my book .
now i'm not saying that watsa needs to say anything about negative about ward. he just doesn't need to praise him like tom ward is bill gates. and i do have to draw a sharp contrast to the statement that tom ward built up sandridge from nothing, unless the hard earned money that people paid in the ipo is "nothing." maybe the little people don't matter?
the more i type here, the less i respect watsa for praising tom ward.
i'm willing to bet you could give 90% of the people here the same money tom ward took from investors and they'd have done better investing in oil and gas. that's how sorry tom ward has been. the bottom 1% of the russell 1000? laughable!
Gold: The Recent Collapse And Approaching All-Time High [View article]
Walter Energy: To Buy Or Not To Buy? [View article]
i'm looking for a much lower price/book. maybe that's not the ultimate metric, but it's one that's going to be satisfied before i put any more money on this horse.
Time To Buy Silver Wheaton [View article]
not what i wanted to do but it's a way to lower basis. the worst is i get 27.95 and lose a few hundred. but it looks like we're in for a tough couple of months, and i'd rather take my chances and have a lower basis. this could turn into a real mess, but the call is good so unless there is a truly huge drop, i think i can work my basis down.
i can understand the gold bubble, but i think silver will be ok in the medium term because the cost to mine will have to be covered and it's used industrially, without much of a substitute.
BlackBerry And Sandridge Doomed? Ask Prem Watsa And Sanjeev Parsad [View article]
tpg and singh gave up on tom ward. sd is going to be pared down and sold off.
i'm going to ride on tpg's back and hold till they liquidate. since i'm in cheaper than tpg, this is one return where i'll beat dinkar singh :). not an easy task!
BlackBerry And Sandridge Doomed? Ask Prem Watsa And Sanjeev Parsad [View article]
i don't get it. even if tom makes a good deal, he will burn it with overhead and compensation that borders on theft from stockholders - or is outright theft, depending on who you talk to.
sandridge was not built "out of nothing". sandridge was built out of the hard earned money that investors foolishly trusted with tom ward. when you're talking nothing, that's how much sandridge has made with tom ward at the helm... nothing!
i won't argue that watsa is brilliant, because he is. but wow, does this dude ever have a blind spot when it comes to the likes of tom ward.