Against Aphobus

Will We Have a Good 2009? Not If History Is Any Guide

Good point nowhereman,

The dollar strength throws a bit of a curve ball. History also never repeats itself exactly the same way. Thought the dollar strength is IMO undeserved, it is a force to be reckoned with and will hopefully stall or soften our economic fall.

On the other hand, if the government continues to abuse the support other nations have vested in our dollar, (as they have increasingly for the last 30+ years), the government will at some point see an abrupt abandonment of that support.

I have seen no confirming signs so far, but hopefully under Obama (and Volker) there will be policy smart enough to use this temporary dollar strength wisely and as part of a real solution rather than just as an opportunity to procrastinate and exacerbate the problems.


On Jan 04 09:55 AM NOWHEREMAN wrote:

> Everything said presupposes a dollar drop. If the dollar rises, what
> then? If the Treasury Bubble persists because of the CDS and rising
> bankruptcy outlook, will the stock market rally?.
>
> You look at 1929, I look at 73- 74. If you use 1929 as your guideline,
> the Dow is heading below 2,000. IMO