Against Aphobus

The Bailouts Are Doomed - All of Them

After several such incidents, it is becoming less likely that Congress is really "befuddled" and more likely that they are active players in this sort of scam.

It is frightening how easily the public swallows the whole show with no more than a bit of grumbling. People are so short-sighted and disinterested only because the costs to them don't show up on their next monthly bill. It requires less effort to be uninformed than outraged. Every dollar stolen or misappropriated does go on our tab eventually. The People should be outraged.

Will We Have a Good 2009? Not If History Is Any Guide

Good point nowhereman,

The dollar strength throws a bit of a curve ball. History also never repeats itself exactly the same way. Thought the dollar strength is IMO undeserved, it is a force to be reckoned with and will hopefully stall or soften our economic fall.

On the other hand, if the government continues to abuse the support other nations have vested in our dollar, (as they have increasingly for the last 30+ years), the government will at some point see an abrupt abandonment of that support.

I have seen no confirming signs so far, but hopefully under Obama (and Volker) there will be policy smart enough to use this temporary dollar strength wisely and as part of a real solution rather than just as an opportunity to procrastinate and exacerbate the problems.


On Jan 04 09:55 AM NOWHEREMAN wrote:

> Everything said presupposes a dollar drop. If the dollar rises, what
> then? If the Treasury Bubble persists because of the CDS and rising
> bankruptcy outlook, will the stock market rally?.
>
> You look at 1929, I look at 73- 74. If you use 1929 as your guideline,
> the Dow is heading below 2,000. IMO

A Bull Is Born, 2009

What about the fact that none of the economic fundamentals have improved!?! The market will not just rise (sustainably) because some time has passed and a few sketchy technical points have been crossed. Inflation is the one "force of nature" effect that will push markets up (not in VALUE but in PRICE). Other than that, I don't see much of a case for a sustained bull market.

Even admitting that inflation by itself is a bullish force on stock prices, with earnings in the toilet and borrowing difficult, I'd rather invest in commodities.

Will We Have a Good 2009? Not If History Is Any Guide

I agree. It's nice that the media (and government) woke up to the fact that we were in a recession--if a year late. What continues to be very troubling is the naive acceptance of the misappropriation of funds in TARP. We have acknowledged some of the crises, but still fail to provide more than a bandage solution to any of them.

Just yesterday, I heard another pundit prattling (I believe on Fox News) about how "nine times out of ten the market rises after a bad year" and that the "worst thing you could do is try to time the market and miss it". What they failed to mention was that the one time it was not up was during the Great Depression, and that going long after the first year, you would have lost something like 43% of your remaining money.

Another interesting point that everyone seems to be missing is that the Great Depression didn't happen overnight. While they label this just another measly recession and not a depression, the markets are down more in the first year of this "recession" (38%) than they were in the first year of the great depression (30%).

Yes, maybe down years following immediately after down years are a 1 in 10 rarity, but so far we are positioned more strongly that way than even we were during the beginning of the great depression!

It would be fantastic if what I'm saying turns out to be a false alarm. I just find it very reckless to ignore the danger.

I'm afraid that until there is more caution and some real solutions--hard choices made, that there is still room for the markets to fall.