Based on research reports of 34 research analysts from different independent research firms, the consensus earnings per share of (MSFT) for next quarter is $0.79 USD. The yearly earnings forecast for current year is $2.88 USD and the forecast for next year's earnings is $3.21 USD. The the consensus target price for (MSFT) is 36.51 USD. A quantitative research models compare current (MSFT) PE ratio with historical PE ratios, adjust the historical PEs by including the influence factors like Company Growth Rate, Company Size, Financial Leverage and Price Volatility. The resulting chart shows the PE ratio of (MSFT) after adjustment to be 9.3 and compares the adjusted PE ratio with average industry PE 11.7, Sector PE 12.9, and S&P 500 PE 11.2. The adjusted PE ratio of (MSFT) is LOWER than the industry average PE ratio. Profit margines show the ability of the company to generate profit through use of capital. Instead of Gross Profit Margin, investor should also study the trend and figure of Earning Before Tax Margin to see how the company’s operating performance without regard to tax implications. By comparing the 5 years trend of (MSFT) Gross Profit Margin and Earning Before Tax Margin (EBT), the company's trailer 12 months EBT has showed down trend from 2012-06% to TTM%. Improvement in EBT reveals improvement in company's operating efficiency. ROE (Return on Equity) shows how well the company's management is growing the company's value at an acceptable rate. Because ROE weighs net income only againsts shareholders' equity, it doesn't reveal much about how well a company uses its financing from borrowing and bonds. A company with high financial leverage may deliver an impressive ROE (> 15%) without actually being more effective at using the shareholders' equity to grow the company. Therefore look at ROA (Return on Asset) as well as ROE to provide a clear picture of (MSFT) management's effectiveness.The trailer 12 months ROA is 13.7% and the financial leverage of (MSFT) is 1.77 which is higher than the industry average. The company ROE does NOT reveal the quality of the company management. By ploying the 5 years net earning margin with trend line analysis, a positive upward trend line reveals the improvement of net earning power of (MSFT) and a negative trend line gives an opposite observation. We observe decline during Great Depression 2008/2009, then uptrend all the way to summer 2011, the peak of European debt crisis when logically all went down, but as Europeans started resolving debt crisis, the downtrend slope sharply slowed as of June 2012, and based on this trend we can expect full recovery and uptrend in the first half of 2013. Account receviable turnover is a good indicator to measure how efficient of (MSFT) using its asset. A high receviable turnover ratio indicates the company is operating in cash basis. If the recevialbe turnover is high and the company's financial leverage is also too high ( > 1.8), extra caution must be taken as the company may be indirectly extending interest-free loans to their clients. MSFT receivables turnover is 7.23 and financial leverage 1.77. Based on average valuation ratings and mean target price estimates from 36 brokerage firms, the consensus valuation rating for (MSFT) is 2.1. Also, based on research analysts from 36 brokerage firms, the mean target price for (MSFT) is 36.51 USD. Now go and short this stock
Hewlett-Packard's New Releases Will Not Boost Price Multiples [View article]
the stock moves up because of $384m buyback. every horse is praised by his own gipsy, an old saying. Their losses increased and instead of fixing efficiency and effectiveness they buy back their own shares to boost the perception of success (interestingly, a lot of sheep out there actually believe this). I am shorting this bonbon down to $6.31 target
Bullish On RIM? Cover Yourself With Call Options [View article]
whoever needs call options strategy in regard to bb10 I advice him to abandon bb10 bandwagon altogether.
the world of mobile computing will be divided on the period of before bb10 and after bb10. it is that simple.
imagine running a full fledged relational database like Empress on - a phone (read: enterprise mobile computing platform. read: take your enterprise with you in your pocket. client tier, presentation tier, middle tier, resource tier, everything in your pocket)
imagine full duplex communication drivers connecting you to clouds, fleets of peers, enterprises, etc. c/unix real-time executive speed that java will never catch up with.
imagine running application servers like jboss, weblogic, websphere on your phone. enterprise in the pocket. an ultimate hacking machine. that is bb10. rule changer. my retirement pick w target price: $1000
Research In Motion Is Up Over 100%: Time To Sell? [View article]
read my lips: Rogers will DESTROY rim. it is unfortunate that in canada there are BRATS BELL, ROGERS, TELUS etc. who receive the lowest scores ever from consumers. it boils ones mind to see all those complains people made about Rogers especially. the best route for rim is to start moving to usa and forget canada. i called rim my retirement pick when I bought at 6.31 but rogers and similar can endanger that.
A Hot Christmas Item To Make Your Portfolio Leap Ahead [View article]
an analyst who specializes in toys sector, forgot his name. he said these guys could not produce enough to satisfy demand back in 2011, and this year they won't make that mistake. he predicts sharp increase in sales and profitability
Analysts International: Everyone Loves A Turnaround Story [View article]
the days of the so called "job agencies" are numbered. so called "job agencies" are synonyms for corruption of enormous proportions. just look what happened with ehealth for example. they first spent 600 million producing practically nothing. and then there was a public inquiry, small outcry. and then in next 2 years they spent 2 billions more producing very, very, very, very little. during all this time "job agencies" that "feed" them with "resources" were boosting their balance sheets, just like many other "job agencies" (read: corruption agencies). "job agencies" are a buffer for the corruption which is ENORMOUS. now back to those balance sheets. the question is: when not if, these "job agencies" will be put out of business. shareholders have no idea what is going on and how they are being robbed of their hard earned cash! second millennium is going to be divided in two parts: first part ruled by so called "job agencies" 2000 - 2014 when we experienced New Great Depression thanks to an incredible level of corruption inside of all the companies in North America (pardon few exceptions) well hidden behind so called "job agencies", because after all what constitutes an economy are people, processes and technologies. Put wrong people into a wrong process and that is a recipe for a disaster which we all experience. with all this technology we developed and to go on food stamps???? come on. as more and more shareholders realize that so called "job agencies" are money drainer and corruption buffer more and more companies will hire people directly. As the matter of fact, if a company nowadays relies on so called "job agencies" to hire people short that company immediately, mark it BEAR. only consider companies that hire people directly
Research In Motion Is Up Over 100%: Time To Sell? [View article]
here is what will happen in 2013: the general decline of stock markets. low interest rates will squeeze earnings growth even more to the point that the status quo will no longer be possible - companies will have to fire more people in order to show some profitability (any other turnaround is not possible, international demand will remain weak). but people are already pissed off. I personally, who bought smartphone while unemployed in 2009., will never buy ANY gadget until I have full 5 (FIVE) years of CONTINUOUS employment, period. I cancelled my land-line long ago. I cancelled my wireless, and I cancelled cable. I am on internet for now. There are people who are employed and still buy gadgets but as soon as the new wave of firings start again, maybe after Q1, that will instantly boost the general decline and the general decline will move with it many good companies as well. RIM will be unfortunate to be at the start of the recovery at the same time when general economy slumps.
Oracle Corp.: A Solid Undervalued Tech Pick For Your Portfolio [View article]
mind you, ORCL (and others) are giving companies the stuff (expensive but that could have been compensated if the final product or service offering of a company was efficiently and effectively delivered), but the companies do not know how to use the technology effectively and efficiently. some of these companies meet with a vendor, desperate to do something to justify their existence to shareholders, and vendor asks them how much they spend on IT projects in a year, and they tell vendor they spend $50 mil. for example. vendor immediately offers to do it for $40 mil without spending $1 on analysis (vendors in general know that companies are stupid). so now we have vendor on board, nobody is fired (yet), and company presents "boost" in earnings: hey, instead of $50 mil we now do it for $40 mil, but the truth of the matter is it could have been done for $10mil. and what about all those "resources" which now mix with vendor's in a typical organizational disarray (I personally witnessed major company to compartmentalize - though process?! put each part of thought process in different building and appoint somebody to "lead". this is ultimate stupidity, unprecedented). vendor bounds itself in a context so it is not disturbed by stupidities around, but plays the game along, praising company etc. vendor earns a lot here: maybe it delivers projects for $20 mil per year and gets $40mil in income. many other companies tried to do it without vendor onboard. they acquired technologies themselves, hired a lot of (wrong) people (90% of people hired are not of IT background computer science & electrical engineering, rather they are sociologists, psychologists, even ibm nowadays will rather hire psychologist than computer scientist to do IT with the following rationale: they will blend with the stupidity better than computer scientists. obviously these psychologists do lousy jobs). now, after five years of "doing themselves" (mind you, during all this time computer scientists and engineers cannot find any job anywhere, thousands of positions but filled with somebody's brothers and sisters with no computer science education at all) the final result is, as I was told on yet another unsuccessful (yes, I am computer scientist) interview: (hi pitched voice) we are thinking about bringing vendor aboard, we have so many consultants (yes, but which kind) and it is still going to nowhere (bla, bla). that is why companies sit on cash and no capital spending. they can fire all those "resources" in split second without single consequence, if they decide. that way they can "boost" earnings for at least 2-3 more years. what they have now is total mess and there is no way out of this mess. money is being spent without mercy, by government, by monopolists with 0 (zero) outcome (i witnessed $2bil. being spent producing almost nothing. when first bil. was spent there was public outcry, investigation, two years passed another billion spent, no results). now ask yourself this question: why is economy is going down? with 30yrs experience in It I now have to move to trading to survive. armed with insights I have got being insider I had predicted sharp slump of nortel when it was $125 after just one visit to their establishments in brampton, celestica when it was $25, rim when it was $44 (while it went to $69, I predicted drop to $3 but of course I bought at $6.31 as I now predicted it will move up 5-10 times, with a german leader and qnx and apple childish os and 5000 fired nobodies - this company hired somebody from england car rental company in 2010 to - lead their sw engineering development?! all of this i investigate on linkedin where everybody is "world leading expert"), and lately 50% slump of HP after just one letter starting like this: "after careful consideration we decided to go with another candidate". in all these instances in the span of 12 years I observed who and how they hire (needless to say I never got job in any of these companies, which prompted me to investigate who they are hiring - they published 1000s and 1000s of jobs in all these years. conclusion: wrong jobs went to wrong people - double stupidity. not to mention whole infratsructure of HR ("human resources") which cost unnecessarily additional billions of dollars all those companies. now here is my latest prediction: ibm will go down to $123 in next 12 months.
Oracle Corp.: A Solid Undervalued Tech Pick For Your Portfolio [View article]
ORCL is finished story. more the companies sit on cash less they buy (expensive) ORCL products (the reason IBM had some momentum was due to better developed services that accompany their products but we witness stale there as well - W. Buffet abandoned his position few months ago). now, there is nothing wrong with the ORCL products, every new version is better than previous one but...recently I learned on upside telecom company still use Weblogic 8.1 (!?). this is at least 6yrs old technology. at the end of the day the truth is companies are not smart enough to use the technology properly and that means huge upfront planning and investment which contradicts shareholder-oriented short-term attitudes. So the companies use what they have acquired during the "boom" 6-7 yrs ago with the following rationale: we are not capable to use technology in optimal way anyways, therefore let's stick with old technology, old versions, let's not hire anybody, let's not buy from ORCL, and we are fine. if we purchase ORCL products we are in big trouble, our earnings will suffer as we are incapable to use technology properly, end of story (and our competitors will not have advantage either as they too are incapable to use technology optimally). as a result ORCL and similar companies will not hire anybody, and that will drag in the following years. companies will, as they get more insight, move more and more into open source, relational databases architectures were conceived many decades ago when operating memory was a scarce resource and these architectures are expensive for the 21st century tasks, nowadays no-sql databases are getting momentum. to summarize: companies will never again purchase ORCL and similar products at rates nowhere close they used to be. I predict sharp increase in unemployment in 2013 that will have compounded effect on the sharp decrease of major stock indexes (at least 35% s&p)
H-P (HPQ) +0.7% premarket following yesterday's epic debacle. This morning's slight gain comes even though RBC is belatedly downgrading shares to Sector Perform, and Jim Chanos, whose has made bearish calls on H-P and (as a public company) Autonomy over the last 2 years, went on CNBC (video) to declare H-P a debt-laden value trap. (more) [View news story]
this company is going south TRUST me!
the key question is: who did manipulate market today 23rd nov. and raised this piece of !@##$$% 5%?!
Canadian Banks: Is Now The Time To Get Out While You Still Can? [View article]
Canadian 5 too-big-to-fail banks are - doomed to fail. Their productivity is extremely low. Their systems that process transactions are extremely slow and prone to errors. And their hiring practices are similar to siciliano cosa nostra mafia: everything is based on this-is-my-dowry mindset. There are two things that helped these banks so far. One is their monopolistic position, and the other is that was always somebody to buy Canadian commodities, whether USA, or China, or Europe, but now and in the foreseeable future none of these entities will continue to do so and the result will be the slump much worse than it was in 2009. These banks do everything synchronously: they rise fees at the same time, they hire at the same time, they fire at the same time. There is nothing whatsoever capitalistic in the way they are doing their business. They resemble centralized planning economy like in Soviet Union. Unemployment in Canada will surge above 10% in less than a year from now. This together with the global prolonged recessions and lack of Canada competitive advantage across industries will lead to very sharp slump of stock value. My estimate they will loose at least 50% of their current value.
Top 10 Pick: Buy Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
The Odds Favor Shorting Microsoft [View article]
A quantitative research models compare current (MSFT) PE ratio with historical PE ratios, adjust the historical PEs by including the influence factors like Company Growth Rate, Company Size, Financial Leverage and Price Volatility. The resulting chart shows the PE ratio of (MSFT) after adjustment to be 9.3 and compares the adjusted PE ratio with average industry PE 11.7, Sector PE 12.9, and S&P 500 PE 11.2. The adjusted PE ratio of (MSFT) is LOWER than the industry average PE ratio.
Profit margines show the ability of the company to generate profit through use of capital. Instead of Gross Profit Margin, investor should also study the trend and figure of Earning Before Tax Margin to see how the company’s operating performance without regard to tax implications. By comparing the 5 years trend of (MSFT) Gross Profit Margin and Earning Before Tax Margin (EBT), the company's trailer 12 months EBT has showed down trend from 2012-06% to TTM%. Improvement in EBT reveals improvement in company's operating efficiency.
ROE (Return on Equity) shows how well the company's management is growing the company's value at an acceptable rate. Because ROE weighs net income only againsts shareholders' equity, it doesn't reveal much about how well a company uses its financing from borrowing and bonds. A company with high financial leverage may deliver an impressive ROE (> 15%) without actually being more effective at using the shareholders' equity to grow the company. Therefore look at ROA (Return on Asset) as well as ROE to provide a clear picture of (MSFT) management's effectiveness.The trailer 12 months ROA is 13.7% and the financial leverage of (MSFT) is 1.77 which is higher than the industry average. The company ROE does NOT reveal the quality of the company management.
By ploying the 5 years net earning margin with trend line analysis, a positive upward trend line reveals the improvement of net earning power of (MSFT) and a negative trend line gives an opposite observation. We observe decline during Great Depression 2008/2009, then uptrend all the way to summer 2011, the peak of European debt crisis when logically all went down, but as Europeans started resolving debt crisis, the downtrend slope sharply slowed as of June 2012, and based on this trend we can expect full recovery and uptrend in the first half of 2013.
Account receviable turnover is a good indicator to measure how efficient of (MSFT) using its asset. A high receviable turnover ratio indicates the company is operating in cash basis. If the recevialbe turnover is high and the company's financial leverage is also too high ( > 1.8), extra caution must be taken as the company may be indirectly extending interest-free loans to their clients. MSFT receivables turnover is 7.23 and financial leverage 1.77.
Based on average valuation ratings and mean target price estimates from 36 brokerage firms, the consensus valuation rating for (MSFT) is 2.1. Also, based on research analysts from 36 brokerage firms, the mean target price for (MSFT) is 36.51 USD. Now go and short this stock
Hewlett-Packard's New Releases Will Not Boost Price Multiples [View article]
Bullish On RIM? Cover Yourself With Call Options [View article]
the world of mobile computing will be divided on the period of before bb10 and after bb10. it is that simple.
imagine running a full fledged relational database like Empress on - a phone (read: enterprise mobile computing platform. read: take your enterprise with you in your pocket. client tier, presentation tier, middle tier, resource tier, everything in your pocket)
imagine full duplex communication drivers connecting you to clouds, fleets of peers, enterprises, etc. c/unix real-time executive speed that java will never catch up with.
imagine running application servers like jboss, weblogic, websphere on your phone. enterprise in the pocket. an ultimate hacking machine. that is bb10. rule changer. my retirement pick w target price: $1000
Research In Motion Is Up Over 100%: Time To Sell? [View article]
A Hot Christmas Item To Make Your Portfolio Leap Ahead [View article]
Analysts International: Everyone Loves A Turnaround Story [View article]
now back to those balance sheets. the question is: when not if, these "job agencies" will be put out of business. shareholders have no idea what is going on and how they are being robbed of their hard earned cash! second millennium is going to be divided in two parts: first part ruled by so called "job agencies" 2000 - 2014 when we experienced New Great Depression thanks to an incredible level of corruption inside of all the companies in North America (pardon few exceptions) well hidden behind so called "job agencies", because after all what constitutes an economy are people, processes and technologies. Put wrong people into a wrong process and that is a recipe for a disaster which we all experience. with all this technology we developed and to go on food stamps???? come on.
as more and more shareholders realize that so called "job agencies" are money drainer and corruption buffer more and more companies will hire people directly. As the matter of fact, if a company nowadays relies on so called "job agencies" to hire people short that company immediately, mark it BEAR. only consider companies that hire people directly
Research In Motion (RIMM) has resumed trading. Shares are up 7.1% AH, as investors give a thumbs-up to its FQ3 beat, gross margin improvement, and $950M in operating cash flow. [View news story]
A Hot Christmas Item To Make Your Portfolio Leap Ahead [View article]
Research In Motion Is Up Over 100%: Time To Sell? [View article]
Oracle Corp.: A Solid Undervalued Tech Pick For Your Portfolio [View article]
many other companies tried to do it without vendor onboard. they acquired technologies themselves, hired a lot of (wrong) people (90% of people hired are not of IT background computer science & electrical engineering, rather they are sociologists, psychologists, even ibm nowadays will rather hire psychologist than computer scientist to do IT with the following rationale: they will blend with the stupidity better than computer scientists. obviously these psychologists do lousy jobs). now, after five years of "doing themselves" (mind you, during all this time computer scientists and engineers cannot find any job anywhere, thousands of positions but filled with somebody's brothers and sisters with no computer science education at all) the final result is, as I was told on yet another unsuccessful (yes, I am computer scientist) interview: (hi pitched voice) we are thinking about bringing vendor aboard, we have so many consultants (yes, but which kind) and it is still going to nowhere (bla, bla). that is why companies sit on cash and no capital spending. they can fire all those "resources" in split second without single consequence, if they decide. that way they can "boost" earnings for at least 2-3 more years. what they have now is total mess and there is no way out of this mess. money is being spent without mercy, by government, by monopolists with 0 (zero) outcome (i witnessed $2bil. being spent producing almost nothing. when first bil. was spent there was public outcry, investigation, two years passed another billion spent, no results). now ask yourself this question: why is economy is going down? with 30yrs experience in It I now have to move to trading to survive. armed with insights I have got being insider I had predicted sharp slump of nortel when it was $125 after just one visit to their establishments in brampton, celestica when it was $25, rim when it was $44 (while it went to $69, I predicted drop to $3 but of course I bought at $6.31 as I now predicted it will move up 5-10 times, with a german leader and qnx and apple childish os and 5000 fired nobodies - this company hired somebody from england car rental company in 2010 to - lead their sw engineering development?! all of this i investigate on linkedin where everybody is "world leading expert"), and lately 50% slump of HP after just one letter starting like this: "after careful consideration we decided to go with another candidate". in all these instances in the span of 12 years I observed who and how they hire (needless to say I never got job in any of these companies, which prompted me to investigate who they are hiring - they published 1000s and 1000s of jobs in all these years. conclusion: wrong jobs went to wrong people - double stupidity. not to mention whole infratsructure of HR ("human resources") which cost unnecessarily additional billions of dollars all those companies.
now here is my latest prediction: ibm will go down to $123 in next 12 months.
Oracle Corp.: A Solid Undervalued Tech Pick For Your Portfolio [View article]
H-P (HPQ) +0.7% premarket following yesterday's epic debacle. This morning's slight gain comes even though RBC is belatedly downgrading shares to Sector Perform, and Jim Chanos, whose has made bearish calls on H-P and (as a public company) Autonomy over the last 2 years, went on CNBC (video) to declare H-P a debt-laden value trap. (more) [View news story]
the key question is: who did manipulate market today 23rd nov. and raised this piece of !@##$$% 5%?!
Canadian Banks: Is Now The Time To Get Out While You Still Can? [View article]
There are two things that helped these banks so far. One is their monopolistic position, and the other is that was always somebody to buy Canadian commodities, whether USA, or China, or Europe, but now and in the foreseeable future none of these entities will continue to do so and the result will be the slump much worse than it was in 2009.
These banks do everything synchronously: they rise fees at the same time, they hire at the same time, they fire at the same time. There is nothing whatsoever capitalistic in the way they are doing their business. They resemble centralized planning economy like in Soviet Union.
Unemployment in Canada will surge above 10% in less than a year from now. This together with the global prolonged recessions and lack of Canada competitive advantage across industries will lead to very sharp slump of stock value. My estimate they will loose at least 50% of their current value.