mrbill's Comments

BIGGEST FINANCIAL CRIME IN HISTORY - NOT REPORTED BY MAINSTREAM PRESS

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 22:55:28 -0400

More than likely the bonds are real and are being shuffled around to keep the central banks solvent long enough so that auditors can sign off. Once that's done, the bonds are delivered to the next insolvent bank, and so on. It's no different than moving a brief case full of cash. Both have serial numbers but aren't used to track anything, but can certainly be (temporarily) added to the balance sheets of these banks.

To add to the mystery, consider that Geithner, in April 2009 stated the following:

"Treasury still has about $134.5 billion (92 billion pounds) available out of an originally approved $700 billion for bolstering banks' capital and said he wouldn't need to ask Congress for more."

uk.biz.yahoo.com/21042...

$134.5 billion is the exact amount of the bonds that were seized.

Shocking.

Why Isn't Microsoft's Strategy Working Anymore?

Mon, 08 Jun 2009 19:17:07 -0400

www.youtube.com/watch?...

If you knew Steve Ballmer personally, would you:

a) Turn him over to the authorities?

b) Leave him stranded in the Grand Canyon?

c) Have him sterilized?

d) All of the above?

Why Isn't Microsoft's Strategy Working Anymore?

Mon, 08 Jun 2009 19:07:31 -0400

The secrete to Ballmer's success: being at the right place at the right time (Bill Gates' b*** buddy).

If you don't believe me, see this:

www.youtube.com/watch?...

Why Isn't Microsoft's Strategy Working Anymore?

Mon, 08 Jun 2009 18:55:26 -0400

Why Micro$oft is a shadow of its former self? Embrace, extend, and extinguish no longer works. The competition don't play that game anymore.

Other reasons:

* Broken promises: release schedules, stable software, new features, compatibility.

* Planned obsolescence (Windows ME/Vista): corporate customers hate this.

* Nazi strict licensing: licensing servers required for corporate workstations, need to phone home regularly or they will deactivate, product activation on consumer systems, etc, slowly getting everyone used to a rental model.

* M$ is a Hollywood whore: DRM, OS programmed to behave like trojan if you're a suspected pirate; also forces their hardware partners to write trojans for this purpose.

* They eat their own: M$ opening retail stores to compete with their partners, large and small (Dell, HP, Costco, Best Buy, and small mom & pop computer shops); same for apps, eg., great plains/accounting.

* Over-marketing of the M$ brand (and for what good reason, really?): back in the heyday, application consistency was seen as a strength; today people don't seem to care and if your app looks and feels like Windows then it's considered run of the mill/generic. It's like buying a Walmart refrigerator, then buying Walmart brand bacon & eggs, and Walmart icecubes to go with it. Then later, a Walmart microwave and Walmart vacuum cleaner and Walmart shampoo. One word: gay.

* M$ is the Radioshack of computing and Ballmer is an insult to every car salesman on the planet.

Most businesses can save tremendously by switching their server environment to Linux: Suse, Redhat, Debian, etc. And as more and more apps are made to run in the browser, the desktop is not too far off.

3 Danger Areas for Bernanke to Watch

Fri, 05 Jun 2009 14:27:12 -0400

"Back in 2004, when the Fed (under Greenspan) started raising rates it had no effect, and the result was the Real Estate Bubble going on for two more years."

But mortgage rates came back down in '05 and were low overall throughout that period. Nevertheless, lending standards were thrown out the window (NINJA, no money down, pick-a-pay, interest only, etc). That's what made the bubble even worse. So don't say lose monetary policy wasn't the cause (in whatever form, low interest rates, or lack of lending standards).

Why the U.S. Recovery Will Lag

Fri, 05 Jun 2009 13:16:38 -0400

"One of the many reasons is that banks and their willingness to lend will remain under pressure for quite a while."

Never mind the unwillingness to lend, how about the unwillingness to borrow?

Why Oil Between $50-$75 Is a Good Thing

Thu, 04 Jun 2009 14:19:34 -0400

Anyone who says higher oil prices are good for the economy is an idiot, plain and simple. That's like saying getting get sick every now and then is good for the economy because it helps grow the health industry, or car accidents are good for new car sales. Totally stupid, flawed logic. Why don't you state the obvious, you own a bunch of oil shares?

China Is Now in Firm Control of U.S. Debt Markets

Sat, 30 May 2009 17:01:58 -0400

Yet another deflation = armageddon post.

"My folks bought a color TV in 1965 for 600 dollars ,that same size color tv can be bought at wal mart for 199"

That's not deflation, that's a technological improvement. Nevertheless, that $600 TV will have lasted 30 years, whereas the $199 wally special will last about five.

"My first baseball glove was 29 dollars and my daughter got hers 38 years later for 9 dollars"

And that $9 baseball glove will have to be replaced sooner than the $29 glove. Cheaper products do not necessarily equal a greater value.

If we used honest money, things would get cheaper over time thanks to technology. Over the last few centuries we have been able to produce a lot more for a lot less work, and what do governments do? Print the difference and then some.

On May 28 02:19 PM dividendmachine wrote:

> Thios is hardly news but the author did a great job
>
> However my "theory" is the following. We both agree that the "golden
> rule" is he who has the gold makes the rules"
>
> Invariably China is concerned about the "socialist" government that
> Obama is proposing. It is in everyones best interest worldwide that
> the US has a strong economy and perhaps they sent Obama a message
> by pulling out of treasuries
>
> The only way that can happen is with lower interest rates and a healthy
> stock market
>
> Consumer confidence jumped from March to April
>
> and that is in spite of the unemployment rate rising.
>
> FACT is more than half this country and those who control over 90%
> of the assets own stocks.
>
> In January and February Obama "needed" to sell doom and gloom to
> get through his stimulus
>
> The fact is China DECIDES America's fate now. Bernanke and Obama
> and Geintner are merely figureheads with little control
>
> China needs America not only as the only people on Earth stupid enough
> to buy all the useless shit produced but there is another reason
> as well
>
> America is a conveinent "bogeyman" for teh rest of the world. In
> fact China would have that role if the US was to collapse
>
> Those in power in China have "no choice" but to keep financing their
> debt.Where else can you put a trillion dollars?
>
> Truth is that America has had inflation for 60+ years since WW2 ,and
> gradual inflation is a LOT better than deflation
>
> Each industry has been effected differently
>
> What we are not taking into consideration is how much the price of
> many goods we buy has gone down in price
>
> My folks bought a color TV in 1965 for 600 dollars ,that same size
> color tv can be bought at wal mart for 199
>
> My first baseball glove was 29 dollars and my daughter got hers 38
> years later for 9 dollars
>
> 28 years ago a quarter pounder with cheese was 1.15 and now its about
> double
>
> Gas when i was a senior in hi scholl was 2.09 30 years later its
> now 2.35 .when you add the large increase in fed and state tax the
> oil company is getting Less money for the barrell of oil
>
> Levis now cost less than they did 30 years ago
>
> Now somethings like concert tickets have ballooned
>
> 28 years ago i saw the rolling stones for 15$ ,23 years later the
> same ticket was 225 dollars
>
> Cadillac because of the UAW and managements greed has increased in
> the past 30 years by more than 400%
>
> 2 large pizzas are almost the same as they were 30 years ago
>
> In my hometown a house that sold for 52 ,000 dollars 27 years ago
> just sold for 68,000 but 3 years ago the same house was 120,000

>
> My point is despite the inflation that has happened in the past 30
> years,Each industry has varied in how it has changed

China Is Now in Firm Control of U.S. Debt Markets

Sat, 30 May 2009 15:36:54 -0400

I should have mentioned, the oversupply is due to new capacity. Not so much lower demand.

China Is Now in Firm Control of U.S. Debt Markets

Sat, 30 May 2009 15:34:10 -0400

"I also find it quite funny to see everybody calling to buy gold. Look, there is no inflation right now. There is just speculation about the eventual weakness in the USD. This is driving gold and oil higher because they are paper and speculative markets."

Gas prices have been going up. Is that deflation?

"To verify my theory just check out the price of Nat Gas, which in my view is a much better indication of commodity inflation. It keeps on deflating."

Your theory stinks. The reason natural gas is down is because of a massive oversupply. But thanks to quantitative easing, it's now forming a bottom. See UNG.

On May 26 07:05 AM jeandit75 wrote:

> China being the largest creditor of the U.S. Government, they can't
> afford to have a collaps in the USD cause it would wipe out their
> investment. The other reason why China must keep a strong dollar
> currency is the Yuan's undervaluation is working as a natural subsidiary
> to their exports, a natural competitive advantage they surely want
> to keep. I therefore can't see why China would shoot themselves in
> the foot in having a dollar collaps. That's that simple.
>
> I also find it quite funny to see everybody calling to buy gold.
> Look, there is no inflation right now. There is just speculation
> about the eventual weakness in the USD. This is driving gold and
> oil higher because they are paper and speculative markets.
>
> To verify my theory just check out the price of Nat Gas, which in
> my view is a much better indication of commodity inflation. It keeps
> on deflating. It is impacting the Utilities' profitability and is
> a proof that this current recession is driven by delevraging and
> deflation.

Obama (Should Say) to California: Drop Dead

Sat, 30 May 2009 15:20:18 -0400

Here's part of the problem:

www.youtube.com/watch?...

On May 30 02:49 PM Market Sniper wrote:

> Spot on! I have lived in California since 1957 and watched as this
> state has, with increasing speed, swirled around the toilet bowl.
> For a long time now, basically a one party state (if that really
> makes much difference!) that is the TOTAL control of government worker's
> unions of various stripes. From teachers, state employeed janitors
> to state employeed scientists. They ALL have unions. Bloated salaries,
> phenomenal benefit packages and unbelievable retirement benefits
> have been just part of the problem. The state will have to go bankrupt
> to clear out the dead wood as well as break these union's backs.
> Basic question: since when do government workers, whose ENTIRE paychecks
> come from the taxpayers, have the right to even unionize or collectively
> bargin? This has been taken to the most bizarre level in the Netherlands
> where the Dutch Army is unionized! Peter, again you point out the
> abysmal absurdity of the situation.

Obama (Should Say) to California: Drop Dead

Sat, 30 May 2009 15:14:07 -0400

"Federal backing of California bonds would effectively turn them into Treasury bonds, with the added appeal of being exempt from California state income tax. Therefore, the Treasury will be at a competitive disadvantage when it looks to issue its own debt to Californians. If it then has to guarantee the bonds of all the other 50 states, why would any Americans buy Treasuries when they can get identical credit quality on better terms from the states? The only real buyers left would be foreigners, who are already queasy about the Treasuries they own."

Great point. Which is why I've been saying, look out for a new muni bond tax. This will be the perfect reason to do it.

Fears of Inflation Seem Overblown

Sat, 30 May 2009 07:50:00 -0400

"inflation is hard to come by when wages and demand fall - money printing cannot offset loss of income and confidence. If you believe in inflation you have to believe jobs will grow, and wages will rise. Does anyone believe that?"

What a terrible observation. Have you considered that other countries will pickup where we leave off? If you think money printing won't make prices rise, why stop at a few trillion, how about 10 or 20 trillion in freshly printed dollars backed by nothing?

I am not one to suggest the collapse of the dollar, and I've made that point here before. But that we will have inflation thanks to the Fed's monetary policy, if something doesn't change soon, you can count on it.

On May 29 06:21 PM Fighting Yoda wrote:

> Despite all the money printing deflation is taking root - CPI data
> clearly show that. CPI as usual under reports - it under reported
> inflation now under reports deflation. For inflation hawks - inflation
> is hard to come by when wages and demand fall - money printing cannot
> offset loss of income and confidence. If you believe in inflation
> you have to believe jobs will grow, and wages will rise. Does anyone
> believe that?
>
> There is too much surplus capacity globally – look at China – do
> you think US is going to import all the junk that we imported from
> them. In US itself do we have shortage of auto or home capacity.
> Despite huge production cuts the capacity is still surplus. Nat gas
> is another very good barometer – rig count keeps going down but the
> inventories keep rising, and of course prices keep falling.
>
> Green shoots are simply smoke and mirror tactics of Wall Street,
> meanwhile the Govt. is simply watering these weeds.
>
> Velocity of money is dwindling as credit crunch continues, just because
> there is thaw in the credit markets (as measured by TED spreads)
> does not mean credit has increased. Credit is decreasing – both availability
> and demand. Money is money + credit – money may increase but if credit
> decreases more – net money has actually decreased.
>
> SFP Fed had recently published a nice paper on the subject: U.S.
> Household Deleveraging and Future Consumption Growth
> www.frbsf.org/publicat...

Fears of Inflation Seem Overblown

Sat, 30 May 2009 07:38:55 -0400

Of course we had inflation in '08. Did you not see the cost of food rising over 10% as a study found in late '08? We also had food inflation in '07.

On May 29 03:34 PM redbaron wrote:

> And Real Estate has not yet bottomed, Right? And what about commercial
> real estate, which is the other shoe to fall. Oil is less than half
> of what it was last summer, and we didn't have inflation then, so
> why is the increase in oil now inflationary? Inflation eventually,
> but not yet, IMHO.

Tax-Free Muni Bonds: Respect the Yield Curve

Sat, 16 May 2009 21:06:58 -0400

"Most municipalities, I’m told, would rather fire employees, freeze wages, cut services, basically use every other tool in the box before they turn their back on bondholders."

With our bailout nanny state mentality that's no longer the case. Just ask the auto mfg bond holders. According to Barack Obama, they're just "rich speculators". Rest or unrest assured, bond holders will be left holding the bag this time around. Either through a reduction of principle (cramdowns), monetization of debt, and perhaps a new federal tax on munibonds. Build America Bonds are a first step in this direction.

Inflation Expectations: A Primer

Sun, 12 Apr 2009 23:45:17 -0400

Here's my version of what you just said:

(DON'T) Ignore all predictions of inflation (defined as the rise of the cost of goods and services). The money that the government is printing only matters if someone is spending it (LIKE CHINA)- the money is not chasing goods (BY AMERICAN CONSUMERS) it is not spurring price increases (AS LONG AS CHINA IS NOT BUYING LOTS OF THINGS LIKE BASIC MATERIALS, BUT THEY ARE). The American consumer has stopped spending in a reckless manner (BUT CHINA WILL SPEND AND MAKE UP THE DIFFERENCE). The velocity of money has slowed to crawl (BUT CHINA'S SPENDING IS PICKING UP PACE). Trillions of dollars have been removed from the economy (THOUGH CHINA IS MORE THAN WILLING TO PUT IT BACK IN) from the decline of real estate values (no more HELOC ATMS) and banks cutting back on credit available to borrowers.

On Apr 12 01:34 PM six wrote:

> Ignore all predictions of inflation (defined as the rise of the cost
> of goods and services). The money that the government is printing
> only matters if someone is spending it- the money is not chasing
> goods it is not spurring price increases. The American consumer
> has stopped spending in a reckless manner. The velocity of money
> has slowed to crawl. Trillions of dollars have been removed from
> the economy from the decline of real estate values (no more HELOC
> ATMS) and banks cutting back on credit available to borrowers. The
> money that the US gov is printing is nothing in comparison to the
> disappearance of the aforementioned wealth. As the economy slows
> there are signs of deflation, wages are being cut in unlikely professions-
> the State of Deleware cut wages by 8% accross the board. Less money
> being made MUST result in less money being spent. How can asset
> prices rise in such a situation? They can not. In fact, they have
> to fall thus deflation.
> The situation is similar to pre 2006 when real estate prices skyrocketed
> and the gov told us inflation was low. Today those real estate prices
> are crashing and they are telling us we are seeing normal inflation.
> Neither makes any sense when you stop and think about it. Whatever
> happens to the price of largest asset that most Americans will own
> in their lifetime is endemic to the rest of the economy. Especially
> when you consider that the homeower is the primary driver of the
> consumer economy. There will be no recovery in the market or the
> economy has a whole until real estate finds a bottom. That is not
> something certain to happen in 2009, 2010 is possible but it could
> last in 2011. When the bottom is formed, do we see a recovery to
> the economy of 2006? That hardly seems likely. Growth will likely
> be much more moderate and not based upon the pie in the sky increase
> in the value of assets such as stocks or real estate. Credit markets
> will never be the same, lending money to anyone with a pulse. The
> growth of asset values will be moderate but much more stable. None
> of the indicators point to inflation of prices but the technical
> definition of the increase in the supply of money.

So How Good Was Housing Data in March?

Mon, 06 Apr 2009 11:51:09 -0400

"FHA is reporting rising defaults."

"Conclusion: Neutral"

"The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency of the U.S. last week detailed rising mortgage delinquencies throughout 2008."

"Conclusion: Neutral"

Talk about spin.

"Case-Shiller data demonstrated another month of breathtaking declines in home prices."

"Conclusion: Negative."

Why is this bad? Do you have kids, do you want them to be priced out of the market thanks to artificially low interest rates and other government subsidies such as tax credits? And what effect will low interest rates have on the cost of living for everyone including home buyers in two to five years? Is it better to pay $1 million for a $500K home if you get an interest rate of zero? Artificially low interest rates and subsidies are great, you save a couple of hundred on your monthly mortgage, but end up paying several hundred more on higher property taxes, food, energy, and fuel.

Is This (Finally) the Bottom? Part II

Mon, 30 Mar 2009 05:41:55 -0400

“They simply have no idea of the power of the free market and the law of supply and demand.”

Oh, but the law of supply and demand can be fixed with funny money.

“If this is the bottom in housing unit sales, it has come the old fashioned way: by prices falling to a point where the buyers were waiting, and the same goes for stocks.”

The old fashioned way? HELL NO. If it's bottoming it's due to artificially low interest rates and the purchase of toxic assets using funny money.

No free market in sight.

Commercial Real Estate: The Reality Is Not as Bad as It Looks

Mon, 30 Mar 2009 05:30:26 -0400

You leave out one important detail, a great deal of building was shopping centers vs industrial. And what is industrial is mainly business parks with lots of office and warehouse space and little production. Consumerism is dieing, slowly but surely. CRE is dead in the water. The only question is, will they go belly up, or will they be bailed out with money printing via C.R.A.P. (Commercial Realestate Asset Protection).

Shifting Metrics in the Hedge Fund Industry

Mon, 30 Mar 2009 03:51:46 -0400

Don't forget to deduct the tax liability from the false capital gains (yet another way we're robbed by our wonderful government). The sad truth is, capital gains might go up substantially and your hedge won't be effective.

Can the Hedge Fund ETF Actually Deliver?

Mon, 30 Mar 2009 03:33:11 -0400

Maybe this is the fund that's going buy up all those toxic assets? Better keep on eye on those allocations. Before you know it, it will be 100% allocated to Fannie/Freddie and a bunch OTC REITs. Not to mention double long dollar and long TLT. And to make it look like a hedge fund, short SRS.

Can the Hedge Fund ETF Actually Deliver?

Mon, 30 Mar 2009 03:15:03 -0400

What?

On Mar 27 09:44 AM Tom Schumacher wrote:

> I think the jury is still out on these hedge fund replication strategies.
> A fund investing in mostly fixed income should outperform an equity
> index. Is that really a surprise? So we have to pay 75 bps to get
> "factor-based analysis" which is really just a highly diversified
> portfolio. I can replicate a portfolio with 75% Fixed Income using
> ETFs for free.
>
> Search the universe of ETFs and CEF: etfdesk.com

Expect Oil to Approach $100/bbl Again By Summer

Sun, 29 Mar 2009 10:24:37 -0400

If you're thinking about using oil as an inflation hedge, here's what's gonna happen: price controls & speculators tax. I bet they'll do it. On the other hand, our nanny (the government) would like to see oil rise (more tax revenue), but not $150 a barrel.

The Dollar's Tipping Point

Sun, 29 Mar 2009 09:39:47 -0400

So where are all those deflationists now?

Are Stocks Actually Cheap Now?

Sun, 29 Mar 2009 09:04:55 -0400

It's a traders market.

The Financial Crisis Is Escalating Out of Control

Fri, 27 Mar 2009 20:40:39 -0400

“so many people who formally owned their own homes are forced to rent and those who can afford to own rental properties grow their wealth dramatically”

Don't count on it. As home values plummet, so do rents, and more foreclosures on the part of landlords. Lot's of flippers and investors were buying all through 2008. They are in deep s#%t right now.

We need another 20% drop to be inline with inflation. In a depression the value of homes could fall 50% from where they are today. At least, that's what happened in the great depression.

It is very tempting to rush out and buy investment properties. But I can assure you, it's much too early for that:

www.newfinancialwisdom...

And if inflation kicks in and interest rates rise, that will put even more downward pressure on home prices. For many years to come prices will stay down. I'd say a decade at least.

Has the Monetization Really Started?

Fri, 27 Mar 2009 19:38:12 -0400

"If the Nation can issue a dollar bond it can issue a dollar bill. The element that makes the bond good makes the bill good also. The difference between the bond and the bill is that the bond lets the money broker collect twice the amount of the bond and an additional 20%. Whereas the currency, the honest sort provided by the Constitution pays nobody but those who contribute in some useful way. It is absurd to say our Country can issue bonds and cannot issue currency. Both are promises to pay, but one fattens the usurer and the other helps the People."

-Thomas A. Edison

On Mar 27 12:56 PM silverwood wrote:

> So let me understand this. We empower a Federel Reserve bank to control
> our monetary supply. They can print dollars at little cost buy our
> debt and charge interest to the very same power that enabled them.
> So what I don't understand is why don't we just eliminate the middle
> man, The Fed, and the US Treasury print it own dollars. We could
> call them US Treasury Notes instead of Federal Reserve Notes.

Awaiting Market Recalibration

Fri, 27 Mar 2009 03:18:26 -0400

Don't break your hand patting yourself on the back. Lot's of people were expecting a rally after six days of straight selling after having broken support. The market took off and hasn't looked back in large part because the rules keep changing: speculation on getting rid of mark-to-market and reinstating the uptick rule. That would be a huge game changer. Look what happened with the short sell ban on financials last year. Lot's of traders got squeezed and lost lots of money.

Death of Equities: Part of a Never Ending Series

Thu, 26 Mar 2009 06:01:54 -0400

For the lowest possible risk be highly diversified: stocks (US and abroad), bonds of all types, soft and hard commodities, cash and foreign currencies, even real estate, etc. You probably won't lose any money, but you won't make a killing either. Maybe we need a Total Market (r) ETF?

8 Reasons the Obama Administration Will Not Solve This Crisis by the End of 2009

Tue, 17 Mar 2009 13:14:24 -0400

Hotlanta,

“6. So you favor the government legislating the free market economy of salary and bonus structures that are used to attract the best people”

Oh, how convenient to use “free market” principles when it suits a banker's bottom line and one of your points. In that case, be true to the principles by allowing these losers to fail. Sadly for you, however, that would contradict everything else you've said.

Just another case of someone trying have it both ways.