Misha

Manufacturing: 'Less Bad' or Not?

Yeah, right. And if you project this “trend” into the future, you will conclude that the recession will end in the second half of the year. Overwhelming evidence! Try validating this conclusion using this past data in this time series and you will see that any prediction based on one data point is worthless. Also, compare to the previous recession and you will conclude that, if you believe the rah-rah CNBC crowd, we will recover faster than we did from a mild 2001-2002 recession.