Lonestar1

What Is the U.S. - China Economic Outlook Under Obama?

Not insightful comments.


"There are some investors thinking that China may “lead the pack” and recover faster than others (see next): I hardly think so.".

Who else would lead?
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"The RMB 4 trillion stimulus package obviously is not enough – otherwise, why do they keep introducing supplementary packages?"

If you try to offer more insightful information, don't just read WSJ, do more research on your own. Including stimulus packages from local gov's, I estimate the total would be at least 15 trillion RMB.
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"A quick solution for China, for instance, would be to introduce universal, free health insurance: that would remove the yoke of having to save in case of illness.".

It is more cultural phenomenon. Japanese saves a lot too, even though they have good healthcare. You are assuming a better healthcare would cause people to spend more and save less.

On the other hand, even though US does not have universal, free healthcare, people spend more than they have. It's cultural as well.

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Those geopolitical comments are even more superfacial. Sorry to say it.

The Bullish Case for U.S. Stocks

Good article. I don't know if those bullish "strategists" on wall street even allocate 30% of their personal portfolios to stocks at this point. Only then their arguments may have some merits. They are marketers, not strategists.

China's Economy Faces New Problems

Asia, particularly China, may have something similar to our 1929 due to overcapacity. And US may experience scarcity of goods as Europe did back then. That is the practical implication of hyperinflation. It's not a pretty for anyone.

Which Black Swan Will Pop the Treasury Bubble?

Dumping of Treasuries by Foreign central banks is not a pure economic event. One should look for clues in strategic arm twisting among the world's largest geopolitical power brokers.

On the same basis, doesn't it make everybody wonder why Tokyo-Mitsubish (?) executed its $9 billion investment in Morgan Stanley for a 20% stake while they can withdraw without any penalty? More ironic is that the same Japanese bank raised capital for its own capital adequacy..

Bulls Hold The Line - For Now

Good article. Although my own bias is for the market to set a new deep low sometime in the summer months, the near term technical picture + a (false?) hope for 2H recovery should push the SPX above 944 we saw in the new year.

No certainty, always probability.

Bernanke Speaks Out on the Great Recession

It's hard to believe he continues to focus on a broken financial architecture which is impossible to repair. This top down approach is too late now. Instead he should circumvent the existing financial system and focus on how to help the real economy. The commercial paper program is in the right direction. But buying toxic assets or bailing out banks is throwing good money on bad.

Blaming on subprime shows that he still doesn't see the problem: a disproportionately large % of GDP is generated by the financial sector which will collapse even without subprime. It can be triggered by anything.

Wall Street's finacial games have risen to a laughable level prior to Aug 2007 when they "perfectly" hedged their risk positions and thus leveraged up to the neck. Also, since monetizing human activities on the earth at the present time was limited in size for them, they turned their focus on "future". Those 30-year or even 50-year swaps may not be enough. If without subprime, they porbably will do 100-year or 1000-year swaps to find some arbitrage opportunities.....In the end, it is only a game. They have no economic substance.