sunny12945

Nassim Taleb's Latest: Rogue Traders and Why Big Banks Fail

All the numbers are 'tweaked, twisted, massaged and manipulated' to squeeze out some ROSY outlook to convince average Joe to keep investing in the Mkts.

FACTS don't matter and FADS along with 'better than expected' can handle all the NEGATIVE fundamental facts b/c Uncle Same is armed with TARP and TALF !

Credit Default Swaps May Be Playing a Supporting Role in Chrysler Bankruptcy Filings

'If union claims are senior to all debt, then the contracts signed between bondholders and management are violated'

How does the CREDIT Mkt perceive this?
Who want to buy senior secured creditor - bonds which means absolutely zilch. Would you buy one?

CDS insurance contracts were developed in the SHADOW BANKING which is opque and unregulated. Those Frankensteins are coming out for their feeding!

One is facing his/her KARMA!

Getting Out of the Debt Crisis: Just Renounce It

Trying to get out deflationary cycle by re-inflation sounds good on the surface but it leads to another unintended effect - Inflationary depression! worse than stagflation!

Progressive Inflation with increase in prices of all commodities, basic materials, energy incl food/items - every day consumption. Progressive deflation (decrease) in wages and salaries due to immediate counter effect of globalization, where Americans cannot compete wit rest of the World. There will be no inflation threat from labor which WAS one of the source in previous inflationary periods!

Fiat devaluation is another detrimental factor re US $ especially IMF issues SDR - new global currency(?)

This scenario has been given less attention than it deserves!

Bank Stress Tests: Tangible Common Equity a Critical Metric

1.B/c of derivatives and other esoteric financial instruments of Mass destruction, what's the exposure of top 'fit' 4 banks to the lower 5?

2. What the basis for 3% TCE Is it from FASB? With MtM gone, how does Enron style accounting gimmicks for with 'charade'?

3. What happens to 3% TCE when there are definitely more write offs coming down the ward on ASBs That might be below 3% like the bottom 5 and the bottom below 2%!

"I'm not a psychologist, but if you ask me whether there has been a sea change in consumption in society, I would say yes," Jamie Dimon (JPM) writes in an op-ed for Fortune. "If people are a little more thoughtful, more conservative, and if their fundamental values are more important than how much money they make, those are all good things. These changes are not going to destroy our country; they're good for our country."

We need a 1930s PECORA style, bipartisan Congressional investigation (similar to Watergate) to find the root causes, the culprits, the enablers, regulatory officials sleeping at the switch, crony capitalism conflict of interest etc

Then Jamie Dimon can take the podium. Till then you are just another BANKSTER sucking the teat of Taxpayer!

Thoughts on Geithner's Testimony

'we all want a healthy US economy, which is very essential for the world economy'

Look at the Guys in charge of FIRE Economy sucking all the resources needed for a 'healthy Economy!

The same old leading charltons of BANKSTERS in firm control of Treasury, Fed and the Congress. The status quo doesn't bring any change. What you are suggesting is to blindly to support status quo ! Get real and think

State of the Recession: Long Way to Go

'I believe that we have progressed to the point that we are dealing with “known unknowns” rather than “unknown unknowns”'

This statement indicates the author lives in a different universe, so are the sycophants with wishful thinking. Reality has been masked by Fed induced rally.

I would like to know if they feel the same after the facts in the slide show below:

Housing Crisis Slideshow: “Why There is More Pain to Come”
optionarmageddon.ml-im.../

Wells Fargo's Record Profit: Beginning of a Trend?

How can any bank worth it's name can claim profits when they have received Billlions of dollars to keep their bottom from falling out? They have to produce profits without considering TARP money, which is and should be a liability! If there is true profits, Taxpayer is entitled a part of that profit and not just the share holders

This appears too good to be true and smells of Enron style accounting!

4 Possible Market Scenarios

We are just coming out of Madeoff Economy withphantom wealth built on Consumption based on debt+excess leverage!

Trillions of disappeared out of housing and Equities all over the world. Trillions more have to be written off based on coming Commercial RE, Auto loans and CC. There is cascading effect on housing values with 5.1 M unemployed with no end in sight. There is a generational attitude change re using credit. This not a liquidity problem but insolvency! Heli cop Ben can keep on printing, till China and rest of the World lose their patience. There is a dead zone between the stable Lender and qualified borrower. You cannot force either one of them to increase the velocity of money. Just look at Japan!

Deflation, leading a variant of Depression 2 followed by inflation. Emerging Mkts will recover first. Tech sector is also a good bet. We have yet to see the bottom!

The Big Banking Emperors' New Clothes

'Remember, the banks have the most knowledge and experience in how to handle and manage RISK. They had been doing that for centuries.'


OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Big Banking Emperors' New Clothes

Most of the articles at SA are 'eye' opener, conveniently ignored by pumping channels.

The coming 'core capital debate',unintended consequences of removal of MtM, credibility of Banks' balance sheet are just a few. Churning of all kind ideas incl comments where we have a chance to see the glimpse of truth buried in a lot of mush!

Three Reasons Commercial Real Estate Could Hold Back a Recovery

No lender will lend or refinance the debt on a commercial property (bought prior to 2007) which in most cases was over priced and also bought on over leverage. The asset prices are declining faster than the affected debt holders trying to re-finance on an over priced assets in the first place! No lender can afford to finance a property which may be close to BK in this on going recession.

Bottom line asset prices are declining for 2 reasons - over priced and over leveraged! This is a solvency issue not a liquidity issue. Bubba and the gang are trying re-inflate prices of houses and commercial properties, when any lender knows how risky it is, irrespective of QE! Policy makers are ignoring this glaring truth. May be they can own these commercial properties like they own 80% of AIG. INSANITY rules!

10 Reasons Why We Still Haven't Hit Bottom

'Everyone is looking for the bottom. No-one is looking for the hole'.

My sentiments exactly. Till housing value STOP declining and Unemployment stabilizing everything else is wishful thinking. No wonder majority lost nearly 50% in 2008 and didn't learn a thing about REAL Economy!

Cure the ills of DEBT with more DEBT and encourage more CONSUMPTION to artificially pump up the Economy, Housing value and other deflating asset prices is akin to recreating the MADEOFF Economy with phantom wealth, ONE MORE TIME! This is called INSANITY but the Mkt likes it!

Truth and Consequences of the Fed Purchasing Treasuries

What's 'an inflationary depression'

My understand would be there will be deflation in certain sectors of Economy and inflation in other ones Am I right?
If not could you elaborate? Thanks.


On Mar 19 08:58 AM Steve in Greensboro wrote:

> Thanks, Mr. Hansen, for the article. Here's my impression, for what
> it's worth.
>
> Bernanke does not think he is debasing the USD by buying Treasuries.
> Bernanke is fighting the last war (The First Great Depression) and
> according to his reading of history, deflation was the enemy. The
> fact that there is no sign of deflation doesn't matter. Bernanke
> fears the current disinflation as a precursor to real deflation.
> He wants higher levels of inflation, just to be safe. To achieve
> this, he wants to increase the money suppy by any means available.
>
>
> He thinks that at some point, when growth begins again (and double
> digit inflation starts up), he can resell Treasuries to soak up the
> excess money. This is why he will try to trade the toxic assets
> he has now on the Fed's balance sheet to the government for Treasuries
> on the theory that the reselling of Treasuries will be easier, when
> the time comes.
>
> Bernanke is grossly misreading history and economics. As many others
> have said, we are headed toward an inflationary depression, due to
> gross mismanagement of the money supply by Bernanke and reckless
> spending by the U.S. government.
>
> We are bolted into the barrel and going over the falls. Everybody
> hang on.

What's Another $1.15 Trillion?

Cure the ills of DEBT with more Debt - Worth the Noble prize in Economics.

B/w NO country in the World has achieved progress or success by spending more!

May be your 'faith' will do the miracle!


On Mar 18 04:29 PM Raution wrote:

> Fed plays the role of a big daddy and not of a day trader. So they
> have to ensure that all the statements are well calculated and does
> not transmits the wrong signal. Second they do not want to pre-conclude
> any assessment whether it is about declaring its recession or stating
> that we are on recovery. So I am impressed with the Fed moves and
> I think they are doing the right things at the right time. They understand
> that there are some positive sentiments in the market and they need
> to feed this faith till negatives die out of starvation.