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The Rebel

The Rebel
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  • NYT: DoJ finds criminal wrongdoing in GM ignition switch defect [View news story]
    Instead of the government keeping that penalty, you would think they would be magnanimous in allocating it among the victims, both living and non-living, in addition to whatever the victims get from the settlement. I guess that is too much to ask from this administration.
    May 22, 2015. 11:16 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Political Backlash Against Renewable Energy Comes Too Late [View article]
    Unfortunately, when the consensus becomes everything is rosy, how could anything possibly go wrong, is when the rosy scenario goes bad.
    May 22, 2015. 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HCP, Inc.: Is The Bad News Priced In? [View article]
    "HCP's shares have declined twice as much as Ventas' and 70% more than HCN."

    That is YTD. But if you look at the declines from their January highs, HCP, VTR and HCN have all been down 18% from those highs, and they are still close to those lows.
    May 22, 2015. 10:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mississippi utility withdraws as backer of Southern's clean coal project [View news story]
    National Grid raised prices 37% last fall here in New England, and we didn't have a "Kemper" problem.
    May 22, 2015. 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba Shares Are Relatively Cheap [View article]
    From a technical standpoint, BABA today filled a little more than half of the January downside gap. There is still a 3 point gap remaining from today's high of $94.77 to $97.79. Once it fills in the rest of that gap, I believe that BABA will sell off for the short term, but will resume its rise in quick order.
    May 21, 2015. 08:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No, Don't Buy Altria Now [View article]
    I agree. This is another in the long list of Altria articles that completely ignores the SAB Miller stake, as though this was just a tobacco company with no other interests. The rumored M&A activity last year in the brewery industry is what led to much of MO's rise late last year. That continues to be the reason for the premium price. A drop to the upper $40's and I'll be buying.
    May 20, 2015. 09:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait For Realty Income To Fall $9 Before Buying [View article]
    "Interest rates will eventually rise to the natural level..."

    They have been saying that in Japan for 20 years. I think we are going to follow their path for many more years, at least.
    May 20, 2015. 09:20 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait For Realty Income To Fall $9 Before Buying [View article]
    Dick- Since O's peak of $55.54 on 1/28/15, a drop to $38 would be about a 32% decline. Absent a crisis similar to 2008-2009, or a drastic rise in rates, I can't see O falling that much.
    May 20, 2015. 09:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wait For Realty Income To Fall $9 Before Buying [View article]

    From the high on 5/22/13 to the interim low on 6/24/13, Realty Income dropped from $55.48 to $39.83, over 15½ points, or 28+%. During that same period the 10-year went from 2.03% to 2.57%. The 10-year peaked on 12/31/13 at 3.04%, while O hit its low of $36.58 on 12/05/13.

    The takeaway from this is that the bulk of the decline in O came during the first 5 weeks when the 10-year had roughly half of its ultimate increase. During the rest of the year, while 10-year rates went up almost as much as during those 5 weeks, O had a further decline of only a bit over 3 points, or a further decline of 6% from the peak in May.

    Currently, the 10-year has gone from 1.68% on 2/02/15, just a few days after O peaked at $55.54, to 2.28% on 5/12/15, with O reaching a low on 5/06/15 of $45.47, for a decline of 19%. So unless the 10-year rises above 2.9-3.0% this year, I don't see O falling below $43-44. That just happens to be where Tim said he wouldn't pay any more than that for O.

    Time will tell.
    May 20, 2015. 09:02 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo takes late-day tumble [View news story]
    Could it be that if Yahoo can't spin off the Alibaba shares tax free, then the market doesn't have to worry about 384 million shares of Alibaba coming on the market any time soon.
    May 19, 2015. 07:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    SDNS- 100 may be a drop in the bucket, but I wouldn't downplay it like that since we are talking about public employees who belong to public employee unions, that are constantly asking for more and more at our expense. These are some of the same people who take a higher paying job for a short period of time, but receive a pension based on that higher income. The time is long since passed for pension reforms for public employees.

    Also, the NYC case is probably a "drop in the bucket" as to what is the real cost to the public for this type of fraud.
    May 17, 2015. 09:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    That chart line of "quits" wouldn't look nearly as steep if the 300,000-400,000 quits per month for retirement purposes since 2010 had been factored in to the chart.
    May 17, 2015. 08:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    SDNS- Let's not forget one of the biggest of the blue states leading the way on disability fraud. Last year over 100 retired NYC police and firefighters were indicted for massive fraud in their disabilty filings:

    And the public is not only paying for the phony disability claims, but also for their pensions, so it is a double whammy. Convictions for the disability fraud should preclude them from receiving their pensions. A felony conviction can result in the forfeiture of pension benefits, as has happened on many occasions.
    May 17, 2015. 08:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Are Interest Rates Going To Normalize? What We're Watching For... [View article]

    It's actually both low inflation and low interest rates. When inflation and interest rates are low, there is a greater opportunity for higher real earnings growth, increasing the amount people will pay for a company's earnings. The more people are willing to pay, the higher the P/E.
    May 17, 2015. 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Omega Health Investors: Buying On The Dip [View article]
    Since so many investors think that OHI has reduced their dividend thanks to the poor reporting of the interim dividend, it wouldn't surprise me that when the next dividend is declared, that investors will think they raised their dividend substantially, and we will see a melt up in price leading into the next ex-dividend date, lol.
    May 16, 2015. 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment