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The Rebel

The Rebel
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  • Can DGI Aristocrats Beat The Market? [View article]
    Seng Hong Teoh- My illustration could not assume dividends reinvested due to the fact that they have yet to be issued for 2015. But with the 5 examples given, even if dividends for the first 4 years were reinvested and the 5th year assumed dividend was based on past performance, they would still trail by a considerable margin the SPY with the same dividend reinvestment scenario. My conclusion therefore still stands.
    Dec 27, 2014. 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can DGI Aristocrats Beat The Market? [View article]
    The selection bias shows a recent tendency for the last two sampled year groups to favor SPY over DGI. I am afraid this will continue, at least for the next 5-year period from 2011-2015. For the 4 years 2011-2014 (with 3 trading days left), 5 of the 10 selected stocks are trailing badly the SPY:

    KO +31%
    MCD +28%
    XOM +27%
    EMR +10%
    PG +45%
    SPY +66%

    Reinvested dividends have not been taken into account. The remaining 5 stocks are up between 61% and 93%.

    Each of these 5 companies has specific issues that they have been dealing with either recently or over the past few years. I'm not sure if the outcome would be different, but a more diversified Dividend Aristocrat portfolio with 25-30 stocks would stand a better chance of beating the SPY in these more recent years. But I guess that would still be selection bias.
    Dec 26, 2014. 11:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: ARCP - And Here Goes The Dividend [View article]
    All anyone who has sold in the last couple of days of a previous year has to do is look at your brokerage statement. You will see those trades are included for that year. It is the trade date that dictates. The exception to this is for short sale transactions. If you buy shares to close a short sale at a profit, the trade date dictates. However, if you buy shares to close a short sale at a loss, then the settlement date dictates. Unless this rule has changed in the past year that I'm unaware of today.
    Dec 26, 2014. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: ARCP - And Here Goes The Dividend [View article]
    Mark_A- I would presume that with all the work being done re: the 2nd and 3rd quarters, that the audit for the year end would take much less time than normal for completion. Also, by then, hopefully there will be a new top management team in place, and lenders and investors can look forward to a clean, fresh start.
    Dec 26, 2014. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: ARCP - And Here Goes The Dividend [View article]
    Gratian, I fully agree with you. First, we had the news of the terminations of Schorsch and Kay, then the news of the defamation lawsuit, and then Wednesday's news of the dividend suspension and other lender issues. In each case the low reached on November 3rd of $7.38 has not been breached. In fact, after a low of $8 on the open Wednesday, ARCP slowly climbed throughout the day and ended up flat on the day. The only way this gets below $7.38 is if the restated financials uncover other heretofore unknown accounting discrepancies, leading to more lender restrictions.
    Dec 26, 2014. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARCP Provides Update on Business Priorities, Lender Consent and Dividend [View article]
    Once ARCP resolves these outstanding issues and has strengthened its balance sheet, you can be sure there will be new auditors and new lenders.

    If the economy really takes off next year, banks will be looking for new places to lend, and ARCP will then be better positioned to extract more favorable terms than what their current lenders are giving them. Also, once a lender invokes these types of covenants and restrictions, they tend to maintain an ironclad grip on lending, even after the situation has cleared and improved. It would be in ARCP's best interests to replace them at that point. This assumes that a new top management team has been put in place and has demonstrated positive developments for at least one quarter.
    Dec 24, 2014. 08:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Seadrill Ltd. Reinstate Its Dividend? [View article]
    "I can't believe how many investors keep ranting about the price of oil affecting SDRL currently. SDRL is not a big oil company. They lease out new sophisticated offshore oil rigs. The don't sell oil. The recent drop in oil prices have nothing to do with SDRL'S current contracts."

    If you believe this, then how do you explain the massive drops in RIG, ESV, NE, and DO? I guess the price of oil doesn't affect them either.
    Dec 24, 2014. 06:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Seadrill Ltd. Reinstate Its Dividend? [View article]
    It has been less than a month since SDRL suspended the dividend. Speculating so soon on when they might reinstate it is a bit over the top. Let's get a few quarters under our belts and see how things go with the debt reduction and any possible new or renewed contracts.
    Dec 24, 2014. 02:05 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty -7% as accounting fallout continues [View news story]
    First we had the news of the terminations of Schorsch and Kay, then the news of the defamation lawsuit, and now today's news. In each case the low reached on November 3rd of $7.38 has not been breached. In fact, after a low of $8 on the open today, ARCP has slowly climbed throughout the day, and as of this moment is up slightly on the day.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AbbVie HCV competitors getting slapped in early trading [View news story]
    Shares of Express Scripts saw some unusual options trading activity on Thursday, November 13th. Investors purchased 17,355 call options on the company, which was an increase of approximately 688% compared to the typical volume of 2,203 call options. Perhaps the SEC would like to investigate whether any ESRX employees benefited from any of this activity?
    Dec 23, 2014. 11:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is The Devil? Will Gilead Fall Or Soar In 2015? [View article]
    Since some members of Congress have complained about GILD's pricing, I see this as the Administration's way of forcing prices down, patients concerns be damned.
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is The Devil? Will Gilead Fall Or Soar In 2015? [View article]
    If GILD were to fall to $50 (unlikely), would you still wait for the Dow and S&P 500 to fall significantly?
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is The Devil? Will Gilead Fall Or Soar In 2015? [View article]
    "Insurance companies have sales reps too. Do you think Express Scripts will say to potential customers "we love to limit choice"."

    It's news to me that ESRX is an insurance company.

    "My wife is a biotech sales rep, and she thinks it is hilarious that people think this exclusive agreement is new. She told me 'these deals have been going on forever'."

    PBMs have been making large profits on specialty drugs they sell, but to my knowledge, almost all exclusive agreements in the past have been for rare drugs.
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan pipeline endorsed by New England trade unions [View news story]
    They may have to deal with Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection:

    http://1.usa.gov/1xGgEYt
    Dec 22, 2014. 10:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural gas -9.5% following mild weather forecast, bearish inventory views [View news story]
    All the numerical global computer models are showing a lack of extreme cold weather in most of the US for the next 2-3 weeks. When those models turn around in January, if they do, then the longs will have their revenge on the shorts, lol.
    Dec 22, 2014. 10:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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