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John Hussman: Plunging Equity Valuations Should Impact Stock/Bond Allocation

Buy bonds, markets will deliver s..t in the next 10 to 30 years, buy in small portions long dated treasuries till you retire, if you retire in less than 10 years and your investment is mostly stocks, then let me tell you - in 10 years you are almost bankrupt.
I please all stay away from stocks as an asset class indefinitely, if you are not hedged with double short index ETF or other short index instruments, keep away from it alltogether.We are heading for 3000-4000 Dow Jones at some point in the next 10 years.

Markets Should Rally in 2009

i don't understand what mr. Steve Stovall have to do in your article, it is same like to quote a parrot that shouts " Dow go up,Dow go up" and why you are optimistic in 2009?
I may allow only one final saying, your article being great, next time you see personally any stock market commentator, top analyst, super banker, hedge fund star etc., ask them from me:
If you guys are so f.....g good, why you work for paycheck and not do it on your own, what sense is to shave every morning and smile non stop or make smart face, if with your guys knowledge of the world you can be lying in your yacht taking a nap and trading in your free time from fishing.
ALL WHO WORK FOR CORPORATIONS AND ARE QUOTED IN MAJOR MEDIA PIPES CAN NOT BE TRUSTED AS THEY ARE A...S.

Why Oil Will Head Higher

forgot to add why demand for financial information is down 50%, because people lost hope.

Why Oil Will Head Higher

Oil will not go to 60$ not in December 2009 and not next month, and you know why?
Because all best stock market blogs and websites are getting about 50% less visits than last year, and you know what that mens?
It means that we are in very serious economic collapse that will make many people mostly from middle class very poor and majority of poor very slim.
If you think few billionaires will make for the lost gasoline demand during this 1929 Part II crash, then think again.

Crudomania Is Over

I agree only with 10-20$ Oil as 40-75$ that you project seems weird long term.You all forgot that in 1997 Oil was 10-15$ and nobody cared, then in 2008 many WORLD'S TOP ANALYST were predicting 250$ in a matter of days and we all witnessed where it all finished, sorry, it is not over yet.
I promise all of you, that till 2015 we will hit 9$ a barrell.
Yeah, Oil is now 50$ and I make money both buying/selling it day by day, but I would never buy December 2017 Crude Oil at 80$, the market traders of all kind predict such a price for 2017 and I have no idea how they come into this 60% above now price call, but may I remind you that in 1999 longest dated futures then for December 2008 were tading, well at around 20-25$.

New Cartel Announces the End of Cheap Gas

Russia is not a threat anymore as OIl/Gas is concerned, they are trying to bully in Ukraine ( there is pipeline that brings gas to Europe, about 25% of total demand ) and are showing up at OPEC but I think their mafia politicos are more busy now with coming default of government debt and their silly currency than with any cartels.
Russia makes it's social unrest controlable at Oil above 100$ and all it's commodities 100% above the curent prices, I expect something terrible will happen in Russia very soon and it will make Oil/Gas cheaper as they are scrambling and begging to sell their hard stuff for dollars.

Expert Commodity Picks for 2009: Jim Rogers and Marc Faber

Why you always need some gods like Rogers, Soros, Faber etc.?
Those guys are managers who manage other peoples money, their business is not to make you reach, they are salesmen who sell their products (ideas) and use with this money media influence (what banquets Soros makes for media who cover his talk).
I promise you that they make money not from trading ( this way they lost all long ago) they make money from talking.

2008 Precious Metals Performance: Gold, Silver, Platinum

What is a difference between smart and dumb investor in precious metals?
The dumb will buy Gold because it is down less than Platinum, the smart will not buy either as he will think: How come Platinum considered luxury for the rich of the world went down 70% in few months, isn't it because very rich become concerned about their evaporating savings and stopped buying expensive things.
But dumb investor will say: What do I care Platinum or Rhodium or Palladium crashed, Gold didn't so it looks good I buy in hope others will flood Tiffany's of the world and buy all invenory fast.

Ratio of Gold to Silver

Nice picture, there is nothing safer than going short Gold now instead of Silver as in the biggest Wall Street to Jakarta crash the luxury assets will be punished more than cheaper assets.If one can not afford Gold jewelry they still can buy silver.
SELL GOLD NOW.

Reader's Comment: Oil Stocks vs. Oil Trading Strategy

Any technical strategy works good when there are money on the table to gamble, when current crash cut 50% of money invested worldwide I doubt any strategy has sense.
I only believe in the daytrade as this is the only one strategy that let's trader a minimal exposure to price action moves long term.

Reports of Equities' Death Are Greatly Exaggerated

EQUITIES ARE DEAD in my view, because in the past all investors from 10,000$ investor to 1 trillion $ pension mutual fund made their calculations that stocks will average 10-15 yearly return.
Now this asset allocation model is dead as well as the current mega crash proved that stock investing is pure speculation that has nothing to do with the overall economic growth.
How come global economy grows 2-4% a year and stocks grow 10-20% a year, doesn't this public companies participate in the global economic cycle or they are on their own?
Think about it.

Gold Due for a Pullback; Silver Approaching Resistance

I am watching GC ( have short futures ) with big interest and wonder why those investors on the buy side gave me a great opportunity to sell without even knowing me personally.
Let me explain why GC is down less than Crude Oil ,Palladium, Nickel or Rhodium it is down less for one very simple reason: most investors who bought mining stocks even 5 years ago (I don't even mention those buying in 2008) lost about everything or in best cases 50% which is not bad looking at any other sector in the global economy, so again why GC didn't crash?
The only reason for this that those that were listening to GC stories 1 year ago and missed big rally sitting on the sidelines, lately came to the market as watching GC that got symbolized last year that it is a best protection from all depressions and recessions plus in the booming leveraged world economy new middle class including billions Chinesse, Indians, Russians, Saudis will buy 1 gram of GC each (I remember such explanations) and the GC will be 2000-3000 $ in a blink of an eye.
So those who started to buy lately out of fear of beat market pushed the price to the opposite direction of Platinum price and making out of it the good opportunity to sell because demand for jewelry declines day by day and cash GC trading volumes already collapsed so those buying futures and options and stocks made a mini bubble that have nothing to do with GC demand when major jewelry stores worldwide and luxury industry in particular see their sales disappear overnight and in panic they cancel all their GC buy orders as inventory is full and it will take now years to sell existing stock.
Those of you who think that all commodities went down 50-70% in such a fast time and it is a joke, I wish you happy GC investing while those of you who understand that we are in the beginning of 1929 era ( who bought GC then?) that can last 30 years I advise sell all your physical GC. futures, mining stocks NOW.
GC very soon will make me very rich at 500 $.

Exxon Apostasy: A Closer Look at the Oil Giant's Real Valuation

Very interesting psychological look at the XOM but I must disagree with all for one very simple reason- XOM is a DJIA component ( about 7% weighting) and SP 500 component ( 5% weighting) which means that in any circumstances for the Crude Oil price this stock will have up to 2 times the average deviation from it's index ( XOM beta is 0.5%) that is XOM is able theoretically outperform DJIA or SP 500 by 50% on the downside and underperform 50% on the upside.
That is why exactly XOM is down only 15% not 35% as DJIA or SP 500 from it's high as it's beta is 0.5%.
Investors in XOM who think DJIA or SP 500 are going to be lower from year from now can stick to XOM, investors who are bullish may sell XOM and instead buy more correlated beta stocks to the upside with the value of beta 1 and above.

Iraq Production, Conservation Could Keep Oil Price in Check for Years

I disagree, sorry, not because I am expert on Crude Oil production just the opposite, and it gives me a right to disagree.
OPEC is made of ,now take a deep breath and hoppa, OPEC is made,yeah, traders that simple.
What you think that because they wear different clothes than you and look darker they can not be traders?Middle East has long history of trading commodities and first futures were found by Socrates to meet the supply/demand long term agreements between Olive Oil producers and wholesale buyers to stablize the prices and secure delivery as Olive Oil producer was afraid demand will suddenly evaporate and kill it's profits etc. and buyer was afraid of losing access to stable deliveries in times of expected future rising demand and shortage of Olive Oil elswhere.
Since then (2500-3000 years ago?) the relationship between producer/consumer were not easy as sometimes when prices crashed seller made stable profits and at other times seller lost as prices rose and he had to deliver at below prices.
So who is more important in the OPEC/consumer relationship?
I think that both sides are important as we need OPEC for it's Olive Oil, sorry, for it Crude Oil and OPEC needs us for the same reason to sell us it's Oil and make money whatever the price will be, producer just can't shut it's Oil well and go somwhere else do something else as Oil is all he have and it is in their interest keep it running,developing it,selling it and pocketing the profit.

Risk Aversion Trading Expected to Return

The VIX have nothing to do in the current market conditions, to place one's hope on some technical parameters during the biggest crash in history is like to watch temperature in Beverly Hills becoming in 6 months time equal to the temperature in the North Pole and then for a governor of CA calling a conference on the subject " Competitivness of Napa Valley wines in the current climate conditions".
Come on guys, haven't you lost enough or haven't you witness the reality of the 2008?