jerrion

$59 Billion Dubai Debt Default Could Have Much Wider Implications

they produce about 240,000 barrels of oil day which would not equate to 2 billion dollars per day more like 20 million per day.


On Nov 26 09:10 PM Maha Lesch wrote:

> Over all Dubai GDP was 37 billion in 2005, at 15% growth this would
> be around 55 million by 2008. Now 16% of that number comes from real
> estate developments. that is around 9 billion. I am puzzled where
> the 50-80 billion numbers came from. Dubai income from its "little"
> oil alone is 2 billion/day. I see no fear of a default. What I see
> is probably a tactical move that was overblown out of proportions.
> Markets hate uncertainty, once more clarity is available into this
> situation, markets will surge on the same "bad" news it declined.

Earnings Preview: The Hartford

book value per share $48.13.

Great Recession Datapoint of the Day

Yes that is correct. Exports are not running at half the rate of 6 months ago as the author thought. Instead they are now running about 14.5% below the level of 6 months ago.


On Apr 29 03:56 PM jerrion wrote:

> Amounts are taken from the BEA GDP table for 1st quarter 2009. Amounts
> are in billions of chained (2000) dollars.
>
> exports for 3rd Q 08 seasonally adjusted annual rate was 1,556.1billion
>
>
> exports for 1st Q 09 seasonally adjusted annual rate was 1,331 billion
>
>
> half of the rate 6 months ago would mean an annual rate of 1,556.1
> / 2 = 778.05 billion
>
> 1,331 billion annualized export rate in the 1st quarter is a far
> cry from 778.05 billion

How Does $9000 Gold Sound?

do you carry gold with you when you travel to pay for stuff? What form is the gold; bullion, coins, lead dip in gold, what?


On Apr 29 12:14 PM Analyste de Boston wrote:

> Gold at $3,000? Catastrophe! OTOH, a 5-10% stake in bullion is an
> excellent hedge against complete collapse or long-term eroded value
> during inflationary times.
>
> Gold in fact IS money. You can cash in your bullion at many jewelers,
> coin shops and - in some countries - even banks. Gold is currency,
> when & where you travel and if you chose to spend it.
>
> Poor people respect gold most of all. It's gratefully accepted around
> the world!

Great Recession Datapoint of the Day

Amounts are taken from the BEA GDP table for 1st quarter 2009. Amounts are in billions of chained (2000) dollars.

exports for 3rd Q 08 seasonally adjusted annual rate was 1,556.1billion

exports for 1st Q 09 seasonally adjusted annual rate was 1,331 billion

half of the rate 6 months ago would mean an annual rate of 1,556.1 / 2 = 778.05 billion

1,331 billion annualized export rate in the 1st quarter is a far cry from 778.05 billion

> By my reckoning, that means exports are now running at half the > level they were at six months ago, more or less.

Perrigo - A Prime Buying Opportunity

$400 million of that debt is secured by restricted cash on their balance sheet.

China Looks to Electrify Our Cars

"Japan beat us to the punch on hybrid technology – and now they pretty much run the hybrid show"

What kind of profit margin do they have on these hybrids?

Weekly Observations: Even with Government Intervention, Deflation Risks Continue

In my opinion the Chinese stimulus plan is an illusion. Instead of spending their surplus on treasuries to stimulate demand from the U.S. for their products they are creating demand directly in their own economy. I don't see an increase in aggregate demand from their fiscal policy, just a shift in what is being demanded. For fiscal stimulus to work, I would think China would need to issue debt to increase aggregate. Makes sense right? or am I on the wrong track?

Also, didn't the fed stop issuing the m3 money supply figures a few years ago?

Good article, gives me alot to think about. The statistics you cite show why the fed and treasury are right to still worry about deflation.




On Apr 19 10:50 AM Bevo wrote:

> Stimulus good, debt bad---the Chinese are stimulating their economy,
> and they can afford to. Us? ..not so sure how much more debt our
> system can bear!

Li-ion Batteries and How Cheap Beat Cool in the Chevy Volt

Where does the hydrogen come from for the fuel cells?

I don't defend GM often, but they were the first car company to build a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle in 1966.


On Mar 23 10:39 AM conceptwizard wrote:

> I really can't agree with the overall technology on these cars. Once
> again GM is behind the curve. Very soon if people have not figured
> out already that when these cars are being plugged they USE ELECTRICITY!
> these USA currently uses 49% of power from COAL, which emits 10 times
> what a car does. Its fruitless, like fuel from corn, now commoidities
> are up and people are starving..GEESHH. Honda is on the right track
> with their new Hydrogen fuel cell fleet in California. Why is GM
> just following the trend instead of being the trend. The company
> is a dinosaur and will go the way of the dinosaur, if thats the best
> that we can come uyp with.

Productivity Should Rise as Unemployment Rises: It Isn't

Productivity probably fell because demand and price levels are falling faster than employers ability to get rid of workers and lower wages.

Of course I have no idea how productivity is calculated. If I did that might change my reasoning.

Quicksilver Resources' Barnett Shale Gamble

There was a loss in the 3rd quarter related to investment in a partnerhsip, but this was not an impairment of oil and gas properties. The author is correct impairment took place at year end not in the 3rd quarter.

Quicksilver Resources' Barnett Shale Gamble

Approximately 76% of their 2009 natural gas production is hedged, with a weighted average floor of $8.66, and a ceiling of $10.96. If need be they could further cut capital expenditures for 2009 and 2010 and just complete enough wells to keep production flat and produce at least what they have hedged for 2009 and 2010. Plus their costs of drilling completing wells is 20 to 30 % lower than 2008 levels. Even though they bought the properties at the peak in natural gas prices they hedged to make sure they had sufficient cash flow to meet obligations and fund capital expenditures. They should (can't guarantee anything especially now) be able to suvive this downturn. Drilling for most Natural gas companies has slowed significantly and most conventional wells have high decline rates, therefore prices will comeback with a vengence just not sure when.

An Alternative to Schiff's Doomsday Scenario

Hedge fund manager John Paulson got it right and made billions. Now I don't know what economic philosophy he follows but he is just one expample besides Schiff who got it right.

Also, could someone please explain to me how the the fed funds rate influences the rates on mortgages. I thought the forces of supply and demand in the Mortgage Backed Securities market led to the low rates that helped fuel the housing bubble, (along with lax lending standards) which started this whole mess. Did someone force banks and foreign lenders to buy up these securities and accept a low yield for them.

I'm no economist or finance expert so if my thinking is wrong an explanation would be appreciated.