YBUL

Don't Believe Long-Term Oil Forecasts

As agriculture uses 25% of all oil in production and it is not profitable in its current form, we will see a movement back to regional food models. Based upon pastoral agriculture methods both reducing ags demand on oil and natural gas (for fertilizer) consumption.

Demand will fall if prices stay high, wether that is a result of inability to extract more oil or something else. We can use windmills to split water, use the hydrogen in conjunction with carbon, using solar concentration to raise the temps of the environment to use the fisher tropsche process to make oil.

Dollar Update: Inflation Forces Are Brewing

Because if one were to buy a 30 year treasury and rates were to double today, the value of your initial investment based upon new interest rates would fall. So if you need to liquidate a 30 year t-bill 5 years into it and interest rates have gone from 3% to 10% people will only be willing to pay you half to one third of your investment.


On Aug 30 08:06 AM Hihoze wrote:

> Why equities over T-Bills. If Treasury notes are the plague then
> how are stocks any better since the value of stocks is measured in
> dollars? Treasury notes are tied to intrerest rates and those rates
> go up with inflation. Will stocks do the same or better? Only if
> the dollar becomes toilet paper will a stock certificate become more
> valuable.
>
> Am I wrong? Why?

Pullback Time? There's No Better Predictor than Credit Spreads

SInce I no longer follow credit spreads, what are they. I have myself tied up in agriculture today as it seems recession proof and will weather inflation fairly well.

The Up-Tick Rule Reimplementation Is Bad for Markets

Few would argue that it is possible these days to
> trade on fundamentals, which is what "efficient pricing" is all about.

Efficient pricing would put GM, Chrysler and Ford at zero.

Sorry but the fundamental problem of the market is government regulation of mortgage interest deductions and retirement funds. If mortgages were not tax deductible then most people would pay of their homes prior to dumping money into unknown investment options. Then couple that with a tax break for saving for retirement, though not in your own company, has fueled unreasonable amounts of money being dumped into the markets.

The whole problem lies in the financial sector and the governments desire to socially engineer the world.

Regulation is a good thing, however, the uptick rule will have little effect on the whole of the situation. There are too many obligations the government must meet, high inflation are probably going to rule to roost for the United States. People just better get ready for it, as it is coming and gold and silver are dead assets so you better plan on how to combat the deteriorating purchasing power we will have in the United States and probably Europe as the rest of the world will probably not want to support will not want to support our lifestyles forever and they control most manufacturing today.

GDP = Going Downhill Precipitously

For every Federal Stimulus Dollar to be spent there are probably two being cut at the state and local levels.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

While you may be right that GM may be around for a long time. The value of current shares might be little-nothing for a long time.

It's Time to Stop the Economic Gloom and Doom

<<We never have had a true Keynesian Economics, unless that model is spend or spend more. >>

The building of roads and bridges are unsustainable operations, as it does nothing to increase sustainable tax revenues, created by small business.

It's Time to Stop the Economic Gloom and Doom

<<We never have had a true Keynesian Economics, unless that model is spend or spend more. >>

The building of roads and bridges are unsustainable operations, as it does nothing to increase sustainable tax revenues, created by small business.

Returning to a Gold Standard Is a Bad Idea

On Dec 30 10:49 AM Jolly_Rancher wrote:
\
>Banks need to concern themselves
> with the profitability of the borrower's investment rather than just
> the interest rate return on loans. A mortgagor produces no profit
> and so a bank should not consider a mortgage to be a very desirable
> loan to make. On the other hand, a loan to a profitable oil driller
> would be a very desirable loan. Banks need some incentive to make
> very profitable loans.

That is the problem with fractional reserve banking. Investment capital is created from deposits. The bank then has 10-20 times the initial "capital" to lend and as a result allows more investment than should have occurred. The bank securitizes their investment, and if they function properly then they should assess risk and offer a lower interest rate to a stable/well capitalized company. Versus, the current paradigm, where most countries tried to manipulate their currencies by buying US based debt, creating more capital chasing after fewer good loans, fueling consumption and inflation.

The idea that a gold standard would fail and lower the standard of living is a farce. The gold can simply be stored, the problem largely resided in additional hard money being created, coupled with the fractional reserve system.

If is unfortunate that ill informed people think they can solve our problems. This is the main problem, in that our leaders think they can forge a better system, than simply letting people take care of themselves.

Peace