kruser53

Perhaps There Are Unseen Green Shoots

Aren't the big "seasonal adjustments" for the week of July 4 due to the fact it was a holiday week?

Goldman Sachs: Not So Confident After All?

Sleepless has a point. The author points out that insiders were selling 1.5% of the float at the same time that they were increasing the float by 27%. This clearly doesn't smell right.

Quantum Shift in Economic Baseline: A “Black Hole” Recovery

Great report! I have two comments.

1. The employment graph and table you compare are concictent because the durration of unemployment in this recession is much longer than any previous recession of the past 65 years. This means that the number of unemployed is realtively large in this recession compared to the new unemployment claims.

2. The insured unemployment number is a week behind the initial claims number. We have to wait until next week to find out if there is an effect on continuing claims from the drop in initial claims this week. Also, the impact on continuing claims will be lessened because initial claims a year ago were much lower and these are the folks for whom extended benefits are expiring. In other words, incoming folks outnumber outgoing folks.

Productivity and the Future of Computing

This discussion reminds me, in some ways, of the discussion about the PC in the 80's. Back then only a few foresaw the role that the microprocessor would play in future technology. What has happened since is that the boundary between PCs, servers and many mainframes is simply the number of microprocessors under the control of one CPU.

It is not that I think that application software will necessarily go the down the same path, but there may be some faintly parallel (to the hardware story) future for software. If so, there will be great wealth to those who pursue it and ruin for those who miss out.

Are Financiers Overpaid?

I am intrigued by the attempts to value the work content of financial engineering. In some aspects, I think it should have negative value. Can some economist do a results based analysis? The researchers whose work is discussed in the article carefully avoid addressing the systemic effects of financial innovation.

Is inventing a new burgulary tool of value to society because it increases the burgulars income? Perhaps the burgular should pay a bigger debt to society for having used the tool.

The premise of the researchers work is that the value of the financial innovation is positive. Could that be a false premise?

Unemployment: Initial Claims Down, Continuing Claims at Record High

Yes, the numbers are better, but I can't cheer. A year ago 500,000 weekly initial claims would have been considered disastrous. That reduces my enthusiasm about the drop to 565,000.

Are Stocks Always Best for the Long Run?

Oops! Prof. Banks comment got in before mine. The previous commenter I referred to is User 353732.

Are Stocks Always Best for the Long Run?

I think this article is one that would serve the average citizen who is a casual investor well. Many people who just idly put money into some IRA, 401(k) or other retirement mutual fund accounts each year which are basically indexed have no idea what they are doing. They believe the pablum that these fund and plan sponsors feed that says they can be successful on auto pilot.

The previous commenter has added some valuable discussion of why the auto pilot small retail investor has so much angina. The average guy on the street might not understand and appreciate the analysis of the commenter (most SA readers will), but the oversimplified presentation of the author would be more understandable to the guy on the street who hasn't been able to figure out why his retirement accounts have made so little progress.

New Securitization Schemes: Just When You Thought It Was Safe

John Lounsbury, you wrote: "I may have to eat these words when I learn more details"

I won't ask you to eat any words if you learn such details, but I will be appreciative if you share them (the new details).

This is a good piece, quite to the point.

True Unemployment Numbers

Wow! A real original research paper right here on SA. This goes way beyond the category of analysis, which many SA authors do so excellently. This is original thinking and provides a thoroughly solid foundation for future analysis.

Imagine! Defining the level of employment (and unemployment) by counting the man-hours worked instead of counting the number of people leaning on shovel handles. It doesn't seem an original idea, but since it appears to be a new definition maybe it is (an original idea). I believe that many have focussed on the shorter average work week and the increasing numbers of part-timers, but the author has put it all into one simple package. And the package makes perfect sense.

Does Anyone Have a Clue?

What a collection of rhetorical questions. My answer to the title question is: If they do, they are not talking.

The CPSC and Homeownership

Owning your own home - the American dream. Many have found out that some dreams are pleasant and some are nightmares.

Florida Home Sales Increase for the 9th Straight Month

Agree with sleepless - comments are excellent.

Weekly Economic Wrap: Truth in Government

Steven Hansen, excellent article (and good comments by JohnL, as well). You do a great job every week with your economic review.

Where Are the Trillions Going?

thiazole, I am reading this several days late so you may never see my comment. But here it is anyway.

If you have such a "round-robin as you describe, if the financial health of anyone in the group comes under question the impact is spread over everyone. That is why Lehman Bros. had such a dramatic effect on the financial sector last fall.