kruser53's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/329631/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/149598-perhaps-there-are-unseen-green-shoots?source=feed#comment-594138 594138 Sun, 19 Jul 2009 16:30:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148663-goldman-sachs-not-so-confident-after-all?source=feed#comment-590502 590502 Thu, 16 Jul 2009 11:09:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/226469-steven-hansen/12802-quantum-shift-in-economic-baseline-a-black-hole-recovery?source=feed#comment-583522 583522
1. The employment graph and table you compare are concictent because the durration of unemployment in this recession is much longer than any previous recession of the past 65 years. This means that the number of unemployed is realtively large in this recession compared to the new unemployment claims.

2. The insured unemployment number is a week behind the initial claims number. We have to wait until next week to find out if there is an effect on continuing claims from the drop in initial claims this week. Also, the impact on continuing claims will be lessened because initial claims a year ago were much lower and these are the folks for whom extended benefits are expiring. In other words, incoming folks outnumber outgoing folks. ]]> Sat, 11 Jul 2009 11:12:09 -0400
1. The employment graph and table you compare are concictent because the durration of unemployment in this recession is much longer than any previous recession of the past 65 years. This means that the number of unemployed is realtively large in this recession compared to the new unemployment claims.

2. The insured unemployment number is a week behind the initial claims number. We have to wait until next week to find out if there is an effect on continuing claims from the drop in initial claims this week. Also, the impact on continuing claims will be lessened because initial claims a year ago were much lower and these are the folks for whom extended benefits are expiring. In other words, incoming folks outnumber outgoing folks. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148177-productivity-and-the-future-of-computing?source=feed#comment-583496 583496
It is not that I think that application software will necessarily go the down the same path, but there may be some faintly parallel (to the hardware story) future for software. If so, there will be great wealth to those who pursue it and ruin for those who miss out. ]]> Sat, 11 Jul 2009 10:51:26 -0400
It is not that I think that application software will necessarily go the down the same path, but there may be some faintly parallel (to the hardware story) future for software. If so, there will be great wealth to those who pursue it and ruin for those who miss out. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147807-are-financiers-overpaid?source=feed#comment-580776 580776
Is inventing a new burgulary tool of value to society because it increases the burgulars income? Perhaps the burgular should pay a bigger debt to society for having used the tool.

The premise of the researchers work is that the value of the financial innovation is positive. Could that be a false premise?]]> Thu, 09 Jul 2009 12:16:59 -0400
Is inventing a new burgulary tool of value to society because it increases the burgulars income? Perhaps the burgular should pay a bigger debt to society for having used the tool.

The premise of the researchers work is that the value of the financial innovation is positive. Could that be a false premise?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147916-unemployment-initial-claims-down-continuing-claims-at-record-high?source=feed#comment-580753 580753 Thu, 09 Jul 2009 12:06:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147590-are-stocks-always-best-for-the-long-run?source=feed#comment-578588 578588 Wed, 08 Jul 2009 08:57:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147590-are-stocks-always-best-for-the-long-run?source=feed#comment-578574 578574
The previous commenter has added some valuable discussion of why the auto pilot small retail investor has so much angina. The average guy on the street might not understand and appreciate the analysis of the commenter (most SA readers will), but the oversimplified presentation of the author would be more understandable to the guy on the street who hasn't been able to figure out why his retirement accounts have made so little progress. ]]> Wed, 08 Jul 2009 08:53:02 -0400
The previous commenter has added some valuable discussion of why the auto pilot small retail investor has so much angina. The average guy on the street might not understand and appreciate the analysis of the commenter (most SA readers will), but the oversimplified presentation of the author would be more understandable to the guy on the street who hasn't been able to figure out why his retirement accounts have made so little progress. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147106-new-securitization-schemes-just-when-you-thought-it-was-safe?source=feed#comment-575418 575418
I won't ask you to eat any words if you learn such details, but I will be appreciative if you share them (the new details).

This is a good piece, quite to the point.]]> Mon, 06 Jul 2009 09:35:06 -0400
I won't ask you to eat any words if you learn such details, but I will be appreciative if you share them (the new details).

This is a good piece, quite to the point.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147068-true-unemployment-numbers?source=feed#comment-575391 575391
Imagine! Defining the level of employment (and unemployment) by counting the man-hours worked instead of counting the number of people leaning on shovel handles. It doesn't seem an original idea, but since it appears to be a new definition maybe it is (an original idea). I believe that many have focussed on the shorter average work week and the increasing numbers of part-timers, but the author has put it all into one simple package. And the package makes perfect sense.]]> Mon, 06 Jul 2009 09:24:18 -0400
Imagine! Defining the level of employment (and unemployment) by counting the man-hours worked instead of counting the number of people leaning on shovel handles. It doesn't seem an original idea, but since it appears to be a new definition maybe it is (an original idea). I believe that many have focussed on the shorter average work week and the increasing numbers of part-timers, but the author has put it all into one simple package. And the package makes perfect sense.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/98115-john-lounsbury/11161-does-anyone-have-a-clue?source=feed#comment-572186 572186 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:14:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146150-the-cpsc-and-homeownership?source=feed#comment-568125 568125 Tue, 30 Jun 2009 08:47:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145716-florida-home-sales-increase-for-the-9th-straight-month?source=feed#comment-566148 566148 Sun, 28 Jun 2009 17:54:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145707-weekly-economic-wrap-truth-in-government?source=feed#comment-566146 566146 Sun, 28 Jun 2009 17:51:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/143863-where-are-the-trillions-going?source=feed#comment-556322 556322
If you have such a "round-robin as you describe, if the financial health of anyone in the group comes under question the impact is spread over everyone. That is why Lehman Bros. had such a dramatic effect on the financial sector last fall.]]> Sun, 21 Jun 2009 13:45:41 -0400
If you have such a "round-robin as you describe, if the financial health of anyone in the group comes under question the impact is spread over everyone. That is why Lehman Bros. had such a dramatic effect on the financial sector last fall.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142969-chart-of-the-day-length-of-recessions?source=feed#comment-544355 544355 Fri, 12 Jun 2009 15:38:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/142466-markets-are-at-a-crossroads?source=feed#comment-543350 543350 Thu, 11 Jun 2009 23:43:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/98115-john-lounsbury/5396-chart-of-the-day-pe-ratio?source=feed#comment-514511 514511
Thanks for posting this chart.]]> Fri, 22 May 2009 12:02:15 -0400
Thanks for posting this chart.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139207-on-the-radar-recent-intermarket-relationships?source=feed#comment-514502 514502 Fri, 22 May 2009 11:56:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/136498-ever-more-unemployment?source=feed#comment-496954 496954 Sat, 09 May 2009 15:34:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/226469-steven-hansen/3404-ecri-international-inflation-pressures-still-receding?source=feed#comment-495246 495246 Fri, 08 May 2009 08:34:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/136058-the-declining-usefulness-of-debt?source=feed#comment-493507 493507 Thu, 07 May 2009 08:51:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/135669-a-stress-test-shocker-bofa-needs-35-billion?source=feed#comment-491640 491640 Wed, 06 May 2009 09:02:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/98115-john-lounsbury/2752-independent-bank-stress-test-reported?source=feed#comment-487984 487984
I was at a friend's house when I wrote my comment and used their computer.

Joh Lounsbury]]> Sun, 03 May 2009 19:27:46 -0400
I was at a friend's house when I wrote my comment and used their computer.

Joh Lounsbury]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/98115-john-lounsbury/2752-independent-bank-stress-test-reported?source=feed#comment-487983 487983
I apologize for not perceiving that you were asking a question. I liked your comment, thought you made some good points and gave a "thumbs up" vote. I will try to interpret what your question might be and address that. If I am on the wrong topic, please let me know.

You wrote (previous comment): "The cynic in me finds it hard to believe the banks are unaware of their own best interest. In fact, the last 12 months have been a real eye opener with respect to just how far and how blatantly they will pursue their own best interest at the expense of everyone, even other banks.

These are institutions that were never taught to "play nice with others." The big banks are in some type of sadistic Thunderdome scenario. I think they all know some of their brethren won't survive and the tension is mounting."

You have some of the same perspectives that I have. My thought process goes a little farther. Many foreclosures occur for one of the following reasons:
1. No one takes responsibility for the mortgage. It has a servicer, but the ownership is buried in a mortgage backed security. With no one responsible, workouts that might be feasible are not initiated. The result is that the direct loss is increased by the factors I have mentioned in other discussions: foreclosure and maintenance costs, plus often a significant writedown for distressed sale out of foreclosure (significantly greater loss than would have been achieved in a renegotiated mortgage).
2. The bank ownership of the mortgage is identifiable, but the bank is overwhelmed with potential foreclosures and does not have the staff and procedures to efficiently identify which mortgages would be beneficial for them to pursue renegotiation. Only those renogotiations pursued by the mortgagee get their attention and others they could pursue to their (the bank's) benefit fall through the cracks.

I think there is great potential to avoid some foreclosures and put mortgagors in a better financial position if some procedures were added to the legal process. I don't know if the defeated bill was the best one for this process, but I think something would improve the situation. It was only recently (2005-6?) that cram down procedures were removed from the foreclosure laws. I think that was a mistake.

I hope this amplifies some of my thoughts on the "cram down" question.


On May 03 03:36 PM mikebrah wrote:

> John,
>
> I raised a question to you in another SA article and was curious
> to hear your response. The article was: Another Happy Day for Banks:
> Cramdown Bill Fails.
>
> seekingalpha.com/artic...
>
>
> Would like to hear your response when you get a minute.
>
> Thanks!
> MM]]> Sun, 03 May 2009 19:25:54 -0400
I apologize for not perceiving that you were asking a question. I liked your comment, thought you made some good points and gave a "thumbs up" vote. I will try to interpret what your question might be and address that. If I am on the wrong topic, please let me know.

You wrote (previous comment): "The cynic in me finds it hard to believe the banks are unaware of their own best interest. In fact, the last 12 months have been a real eye opener with respect to just how far and how blatantly they will pursue their own best interest at the expense of everyone, even other banks.

These are institutions that were never taught to "play nice with others." The big banks are in some type of sadistic Thunderdome scenario. I think they all know some of their brethren won't survive and the tension is mounting."

You have some of the same perspectives that I have. My thought process goes a little farther. Many foreclosures occur for one of the following reasons:
1. No one takes responsibility for the mortgage. It has a servicer, but the ownership is buried in a mortgage backed security. With no one responsible, workouts that might be feasible are not initiated. The result is that the direct loss is increased by the factors I have mentioned in other discussions: foreclosure and maintenance costs, plus often a significant writedown for distressed sale out of foreclosure (significantly greater loss than would have been achieved in a renegotiated mortgage).
2. The bank ownership of the mortgage is identifiable, but the bank is overwhelmed with potential foreclosures and does not have the staff and procedures to efficiently identify which mortgages would be beneficial for them to pursue renegotiation. Only those renogotiations pursued by the mortgagee get their attention and others they could pursue to their (the bank's) benefit fall through the cracks.

I think there is great potential to avoid some foreclosures and put mortgagors in a better financial position if some procedures were added to the legal process. I don't know if the defeated bill was the best one for this process, but I think something would improve the situation. It was only recently (2005-6?) that cram down procedures were removed from the foreclosure laws. I think that was a mistake.

I hope this amplifies some of my thoughts on the "cram down" question.


On May 03 03:36 PM mikebrah wrote:

> John,
>
> I raised a question to you in another SA article and was curious
> to hear your response. The article was: Another Happy Day for Banks:
> Cramdown Bill Fails.
>
> seekingalpha.com/artic...
>
>
> Would like to hear your response when you get a minute.
>
> Thanks!
> MM]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132618-book-review-when-giants-fall-by-michael-panzer?source=feed#comment-478107 478107 Sun, 26 Apr 2009 15:00:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132331-notable-by-their-absence-at-tuesday-s-hearings?source=feed#comment-473111 473111
Keep up the good work, Simon.]]> Wed, 22 Apr 2009 15:24:04 -0400
Keep up the good work, Simon.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/98115-john-lounsbury/1508-comments-on-james-quinn-article-what-will-this-crisis-lead-to?source=feed#comment-473090 473090 Wed, 22 Apr 2009 15:11:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132282-what-will-this-crisis-lead-to?source=feed#comment-473070 473070
Great article.

John Lounsbury - - -

Thanks for taking a long comment out of this comment stream to an Instablog. It makes reading the other comments much easier.]]> Wed, 22 Apr 2009 14:57:21 -0400
Great article.

John Lounsbury - - -

Thanks for taking a long comment out of this comment stream to an Instablog. It makes reading the other comments much easier.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131705-converting-tarp-s-preferred-to-common-stock-great-idea?source=feed#comment-470239 470239
You wrote: "...common stock improves lending incentives for troubled but solvent banks. Preferred stock is too much like debt to encourage banks to make good loans. "

I draw your attention to "...troubled but solvent..." Aye, there's the rub. No one knows who's merely troubled and who's insolvent.]]> Mon, 20 Apr 2009 16:16:54 -0400
You wrote: "...common stock improves lending incentives for troubled but solvent banks. Preferred stock is too much like debt to encourage banks to make good loans. "

I draw your attention to "...troubled but solvent..." Aye, there's the rub. No one knows who's merely troubled and who's insolvent.]]>