bagnap's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/329662/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/147015-gm-says-it-straight-and-simple-shares-are-going-to-zero?source=feed#comment-576418 576418
Is there any way to profit out of this, at all?]]> Mon, 06 Jul 2009 19:22:06 -0400
Is there any way to profit out of this, at all?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134154-ecb-ignores-deflation-at-its-own-peril?source=feed#comment-484849 484849
Firstly, you seem to imply that the ECB is more likely than not to keep rates on hold (or maybe with a slight downward bias) but without drastic monetization measures.

Everything else remaining the same, this would result in upwards pressure on the Euro relative to the dollar, especially if you are contrasting the european policy measures with the US.

I take your point that there may be some risk of the EU coming apart, but predicting that on the basis that Spain and Ireland are having a hard economic time right now....surely their policy makers would look north to Iceland and say something like:

"Well, we are a small country coming out of a oversupply of credit and dealing with its consquences. Thank God we're in the EU. Look what would have been imposed on us (i.e. IMF high rates etc) if we'd been on our own".

I'd be interested to hear your view on this.]]> Thu, 30 Apr 2009 21:18:11 -0400
Firstly, you seem to imply that the ECB is more likely than not to keep rates on hold (or maybe with a slight downward bias) but without drastic monetization measures.

Everything else remaining the same, this would result in upwards pressure on the Euro relative to the dollar, especially if you are contrasting the european policy measures with the US.

I take your point that there may be some risk of the EU coming apart, but predicting that on the basis that Spain and Ireland are having a hard economic time right now....surely their policy makers would look north to Iceland and say something like:

"Well, we are a small country coming out of a oversupply of credit and dealing with its consquences. Thank God we're in the EU. Look what would have been imposed on us (i.e. IMF high rates etc) if we'd been on our own".

I'd be interested to hear your view on this.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132521-observations-on-the-credit-equity-relationship?source=feed#comment-476411 476411
This is a relative value analysis - it tells you that one of those things (i.e. CDS or the financials equity market) is out of whack. However, it doesnt tell you which one....

Tyler seems to imply that the financials equity is out of whack.

There may be an alternative reason - the CDS market is out of whack because:

1. a reduced number of players (i.e. they are all bankrupt, or now prohibited from trading CDS), which leads to reduced liquidty and more opportunities for arbitrage.
2. banks etc unwinding their of portfolios of CDS, causing the CDS market RELATIVE to the equity market to be experiencing sell pressure.

Whatever it is, it looks like a good opportunity for anyone with a CDS trading desk left to take advantage of....
]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 16:50:02 -0400
This is a relative value analysis - it tells you that one of those things (i.e. CDS or the financials equity market) is out of whack. However, it doesnt tell you which one....

Tyler seems to imply that the financials equity is out of whack.

There may be an alternative reason - the CDS market is out of whack because:

1. a reduced number of players (i.e. they are all bankrupt, or now prohibited from trading CDS), which leads to reduced liquidty and more opportunities for arbitrage.
2. banks etc unwinding their of portfolios of CDS, causing the CDS market RELATIVE to the equity market to be experiencing sell pressure.

Whatever it is, it looks like a good opportunity for anyone with a CDS trading desk left to take advantage of....
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114495-improvements-in-market-valuations-are-on-their-way?source=feed#comment-354841 354841 Tue, 13 Jan 2009 16:14:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114335-markets-are-perched-on-a-precipice?source=feed#comment-353842 353842
While I'm at a loss to show some good leading indicators, I wouldn't be trading the future based on those indicators.

Things are bad - we know that. So does the man on the street. We expect unemployment to go up. We expect earnings to suck. We expect house prices to go down.

What is left that is unexpected?





On Jan 12 09:05 AM CautiousInvestor wrote:

> There have been many warnings including weak consumer spending, rising
> layoffs, lousy guidance, falling home prices and others.]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 17:42:49 -0500
While I'm at a loss to show some good leading indicators, I wouldn't be trading the future based on those indicators.

Things are bad - we know that. So does the man on the street. We expect unemployment to go up. We expect earnings to suck. We expect house prices to go down.

What is left that is unexpected?





On Jan 12 09:05 AM CautiousInvestor wrote:

> There have been many warnings including weak consumer spending, rising
> layoffs, lousy guidance, falling home prices and others.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113653-satyam-scandal-india-s-claim-to-ponzi-fame?source=feed#comment-349329 349329
The only problem with the cockroach analogy is that the cockroach is not a leading indicator.

Usually, by the time the cockroaches/naked men/rats leave the sinking ship....

...its too late. The ship has sunk. The markets crashed. The tides out.

I don't think there is any real way to trade this news as it always lags the market.


On Jan 07 08:07 PM E Nuff Sed wrote:

> Well the Satyam ("truth" in Sanskrit) has emerged from this pile
> of dung.
>
> Warren Buffet saying that "when the tide goes out, you see who is
> swimming naked" is so true - and so is the cockroach theory of investing.
> When you see one or two roaches come out of the woodwork - sell and
> run for the hills - there something rotten behind those shining walls.
>
>
> We have seen this again and again with Madoff, AIG, Citi, Enron,
> Worldcom to name a few.
>
> Unfortunately I learnt this lesson the hard way with AIG and Worldcom.
> Never again!]]> Thu, 08 Jan 2009 01:02:51 -0500
The only problem with the cockroach analogy is that the cockroach is not a leading indicator.

Usually, by the time the cockroaches/naked men/rats leave the sinking ship....

...its too late. The ship has sunk. The markets crashed. The tides out.

I don't think there is any real way to trade this news as it always lags the market.


On Jan 07 08:07 PM E Nuff Sed wrote:

> Well the Satyam ("truth" in Sanskrit) has emerged from this pile
> of dung.
>
> Warren Buffet saying that "when the tide goes out, you see who is
> swimming naked" is so true - and so is the cockroach theory of investing.
> When you see one or two roaches come out of the woodwork - sell and
> run for the hills - there something rotten behind those shining walls.
>
>
> We have seen this again and again with Madoff, AIG, Citi, Enron,
> Worldcom to name a few.
>
> Unfortunately I learnt this lesson the hard way with AIG and Worldcom.
> Never again!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112774-australian-dollar-preparing-to-break-out?source=feed#comment-345165 345165 Congrats on making money.

If you are looking for another popper, take a look at AUD/GBP on a 10 year chart.

www.ozforex.com.au/cgi...


]]> Sun, 04 Jan 2009 06:59:07 -0500 Congrats on making money.

If you are looking for another popper, take a look at AUD/GBP on a 10 year chart.

www.ozforex.com.au/cgi...


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112774-australian-dollar-preparing-to-break-out?source=feed#comment-343934 343934
Let me attack your ideas one by one.

1. "I am one of those expecting a shift in economic power from Western economies (namely the US) to Eastern economies (China, Japan, etc)". Well, sure, nice idea. Very Macro. You are to be complemented on your Forward Thinking-Ness. So, as a fairly advanced, western economy, what does the Aussie dollar have to do with this trade opportunity? Why not buy yen? Why not buy Chinese shares or some Nikkei futures? Buy some Indian shares?

2. "In particular, Australia, as a producer and exporter of precious metals". Well, yes, that is true. However, there are a few other things we export, like iron ore and bauxite (aluminium ore) which completely overshadow our gold exports. We also have a fairly strong banking and services sector.

3. "fiat currencies are troubled". Umm....The Australian Dollar is a fiat currency.....en.wikipedia.org/wiki/.... We did away with the gold standard some time ago....And if fiat currencies are troubled (in the sense that they are losing some of their 'fiatness'), why wouldnt hedge funds pick on the one with the most liquidity (5th most traded currency in the world) and is the most vulnerable (tiny army, vulnerable to global demand through commodity prices, small central bank, similar property problems as the USA).

4. "fiat currencies are troubled"....Anyway...... they? How? Since when? Do you count the strengthening Euro in this statement?

5. "fiat currencies are troubled". Hell...buy gold...Dont buy the Aussie Dollar. Just buy gold..Buy gold....

6. Lucky last....if you are looking for such a long term macro trend why restrict your historical bear market to such a short term horizon starting since August 2008?

6. Buy for the breakout...Well, yes you could, but if you are really trading such macro trends surely you would want to look at a little more history a but further back than AUGUST 2008....You'll see (if you look back a bit further and do some research) that in the last commodity price shock (Asian Crisis, where oil went down to $10 per barrel) the Aussie was completely hammered down to sub 50c.



I'll address them one by one.
You claim to bel]]> Fri, 02 Jan 2009 02:53:18 -0500
Let me attack your ideas one by one.

1. "I am one of those expecting a shift in economic power from Western economies (namely the US) to Eastern economies (China, Japan, etc)". Well, sure, nice idea. Very Macro. You are to be complemented on your Forward Thinking-Ness. So, as a fairly advanced, western economy, what does the Aussie dollar have to do with this trade opportunity? Why not buy yen? Why not buy Chinese shares or some Nikkei futures? Buy some Indian shares?

2. "In particular, Australia, as a producer and exporter of precious metals". Well, yes, that is true. However, there are a few other things we export, like iron ore and bauxite (aluminium ore) which completely overshadow our gold exports. We also have a fairly strong banking and services sector.

3. "fiat currencies are troubled". Umm....The Australian Dollar is a fiat currency.....en.wikipedia.org/wiki/.... We did away with the gold standard some time ago....And if fiat currencies are troubled (in the sense that they are losing some of their 'fiatness'), why wouldnt hedge funds pick on the one with the most liquidity (5th most traded currency in the world) and is the most vulnerable (tiny army, vulnerable to global demand through commodity prices, small central bank, similar property problems as the USA).

4. "fiat currencies are troubled"....Anyway...... they? How? Since when? Do you count the strengthening Euro in this statement?

5. "fiat currencies are troubled". Hell...buy gold...Dont buy the Aussie Dollar. Just buy gold..Buy gold....

6. Lucky last....if you are looking for such a long term macro trend why restrict your historical bear market to such a short term horizon starting since August 2008?

6. Buy for the breakout...Well, yes you could, but if you are really trading such macro trends surely you would want to look at a little more history a but further back than AUGUST 2008....You'll see (if you look back a bit further and do some research) that in the last commodity price shock (Asian Crisis, where oil went down to $10 per barrel) the Aussie was completely hammered down to sub 50c.



I'll address them one by one.
You claim to bel]]>