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richjoy403

richjoy403
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  • InsiderInsights.com Daily Round Up 8/29/14: Prospect Capital, THL Credit, Kindred Biosciences, Select Medical [View article]
    This is not an "article" in the tradition of David Jackson's Seeking Alpha.

    It amounts to a free advertisement, and circumvents SA's paid-ad model...I'm surprised SA editors approved it, and more surprised management has not yet yanked it.

    Insider Insights lists some 'factual' data, but also points out those data are not buy and sell recommendations (and thus the article offers no actionable information).

    Instead, the article constitutes an obvious solicitation for their 'blackbox' subscription service (ranging from $30/month to $100/month).
    Aug 30 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InsiderInsights.com Daily Round Up 8/29/14: Prospect Capital, THL Credit, Kindred Biosciences, Select Medical [View article]
    This article highlights a 'blackbox' ranking of insider transactions, but offers no actionable recommendations...you must pay for those.

    Thus the article is a very, very thinly disguised solicitation for a subscription business. I'm surprised the SA editors allow it to appear as a (non-paid) article, rather than a paid-advertisement.
    Aug 30 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Cisco A Buy From A Dividend Investing Perspective? [View article]
    "The current stock valuation implies a perpetual dividend growth rate of 7.5%-8.0%."
    ___________________

    Unlike the author, I would never, ever, associate "perpetual" with any metric associated with any equity. Furthermore IMO, it is ludicrous to describe as "perpetual" the DGR of a cyclical company that only started paying dividends in 2011!

    Nonetheless, it appears CSCO's BoD may now be on an annual February cycle for addressing the dividend.

    I built positions in CSCO, INTC, QCOM, and MSFT when they moved from growth to value (and were under-valued) in 2011-2012. My total returns in CSCO and the others are well more than satisfactory.

    There are many models for calculating FV; they produce different estimates because they depend upon assumptions--they are indicators, and not science in the sense that 'X+Y+Z always produces the predicted result'. Thus IMO, by consulting several models, one develops his own ranking of them in accordance with his comfort zone. A reasonable and actionable FV range is thus established.

    I won't quibble as to the author's computation of "10% undervalued", though I consider CSCO and QCOM to be the only of those 4 to be LOW in its FV range today.

    CSCO is trading sideways, below its 50 day SMA, and below its 2010 and 2013 peaks (and well below its 2007 peak). CSCO is IMO, a good candidate to build a position on limit-buys so long as it fits one's goals and strategy; however, it also requires a constructive view of growth in the world economy and near-term demand for networking equipment.

    Going forward, CSCO's smoothed dividend growth rate is likely to be on a trajectory similar to its smoothed earnings growth rate. The payout ratio is approaching 50%, which is about the top of the recommended range for cyclical to preserve the dividend in cyclical troughs; however, dividends as a percent of FCF is only about 34%.

    Rich
    UNCK: 24 hrs--see profile
    Aug 30 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let Williams Partners L.P. Be Your Kinder Morgan Alternative [View article]
    Thanks ddadmin, I did make a mistake...I meant ENB (Enbridge), not EMB.
    Aug 30 06:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is GlaxoSmithKline A Solid Long-Term Investment? [View article]
    Emerald -- Thank you, and I too am hopeful GSK will weather the storm (or maybe be acquired...perhaps by PFE). Among bio-pharmas, I am long AMGN, JNJ, MRK, & PFE.

    Live long and prosper!

    Rich
    Aug 29 05:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Microsoft Looks Like A Sell [View article]
    "Microsoft is floundering."
    __________

    Knock-knock ...knock-knock ...knock-knock... Wake-up Rip Van Winkle!

    Certainly you can find something valid to complain about Microsoft.

    But to label as "floundering" any company that has outperformed its industry each year since 2010, and including YTD, is clearly not valid.
    Aug 29 04:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is GlaxoSmithKline A Solid Long-Term Investment? [View article]
    As a search on IAEResearch indicates only SA entries, I assume you are an SDI, and have no listed qualifications.

    As for GSK, unlike yourself, I am a long.

    Your article significantly under reports the significance of GSK's admission of guilt in China. You also fail to mention GSK in under investigation by both the U.S. and UK (here, present and former employees are also being questioned by the FBI). Also you might have mentioned corruption at GSK is also claimed in 5 other countries.

    GSK's management is being investigated because there is evidence corruption is not limited to a rogue employee in China.

    However, the potential good news is GSK has a pretty good pipeline to overcome new competition to cash-cow Advair; shares may have bottomed @$46, as they are up 6.5%, @$49.

    Rich
    UNCK: 24 hrs--see profile
    Aug 29 02:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Microsoft Looks Like A Sell [View article]
    Strange a newbie here would complain of being tired of lazy articles.

    I'm a 6 year member, and IMO, SA has far superior standards (and multiples of professional contributors) to its early days.

    Though I too find it less than what I'd like it to be, and many miles from being on a par with the WSJ, SA is a blog--it is improving.

    Rich
    Aug 29 01:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T And Consolidated Edison A 'Tell' Of 2 Champions: Part 3 [View article]
    Thanks Chuck -- Instructive, while also a spot-on discussion and recommendation for those whose goals you identify.

    Rich
    Aug 29 01:00 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Microsoft Looks Like A Sell [View article]
    wil -- Your question was simple; however, I don't normally respond to those lacking a profile, as it requires too many caveats when they ask a more complex question.
    Aug 29 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Let Williams Partners L.P. Be Your Kinder Morgan Alternative [View article]
    OldFig -- Same boat. My warden has done our taxes forever. I once bought an MLP, and suffered (except loss of consortium) for my grievous error; which is why I own the owners of MLPs.

    Different strokes for different folks. Fortunately, there are those who prefer MLPs.
    Aug 29 09:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let Williams Partners L.P. Be Your Kinder Morgan Alternative [View article]
    Well done Casey.

    I own only the owners of the MLPs--KMI, EMB, TRP, & WMB. Though I am quite pleased, I am aware some are unhappy with KMI, and they need a place to go.
    Aug 29 07:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Live Off Of Dividend Growth Income In Retirement? [View article]
    Mike -- The TLT (ETF for the 20-yr Treasury bond) is up 19% YTD, vs the S&P500's advance of 8%. That's put a large smile on the faces of those who prefer bonds--because rates have trended downward.*

    IMO, that's also a peek of what can be expected when rates reverse, and trend upward--and when it does (and because the Fed has little influence on the long end of the curve), the TLT and the like, will very likely move more quickly than the rates (and sell at a discount to NAV) because many investors will run to the sell side of the boat.

    The point is, when I want to put my cash to work in equities, I don't want to risk its having shrunk by 20% or more (maybe even more than the equities I want to buy).

    Others will see it differently...I can live with that.

    Rich

    * OTOH, total returns for the TLT in 2012 were 2.6% , and 2013 were -13.4%; whereas the S&P500 returned 16%, and 32.3% in those years. Of course, those who own bonds to add a SMOOTHING and relative safety to their portfolios are still pleased with their total returns.
    Aug 29 07:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Microsoft Looks Like A Sell [View article]
    FV = fair value
    M* = Morningstar
    Cap IQ = S&P Capital IQ

    wil -- Please complete your profile
    Aug 29 06:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Microsoft Looks Like A Sell [View article]
    I agree NOK is not presently looking like a smart aquisition (though inexpensive phones for emerging markets should work), and MSFT is lagging in their consumer products; but MSFT is strong and getting stronger in their enterprise market (which is their larger market).

    In the 3 years I've owned MSFT, it has averaged 24% annual total returns, and outperformed the market.

    However, the article is suggesting MSFT is a sell!...

    At today's close, $44.88, MSFT is trading below the FV estimates of M* ($46) and Cap IQ ($49). MSFT has reduced shares outstanding by 23% since 2005, has increasing free cash flow, a payout ratio of only 41%, and analysts are Bullish...I wish all my companies had 3-yr projected EPS CAGRs of 9% per year!

    Rich
    UNCK: 24 hrs--see profile
    Aug 28 08:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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