Seeking Alpha

richjoy403

richjoy403
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View richjoy403's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Dividend Aristocrats In Focus Part 44: Medtronic [View article]
    Assuming MDT locates in Dublin as is the acquired Covidian (if the deal closes), they will be domiciled in the Republic of Ireland (which is not Northern Ireland, thus not part of the U.K.), and dividends will be subject to a 20% withholding tax.

    Rich
    Nov 28, 2014. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Away From Seadrill [View article]
    h -- First, I want to clarify/remind I mentioned above both speculations and investments. Knowing the difference is critical to handling the market's occasional emotional roller coaster rides. I consider SDRL as only a symptom of a too-common condition. A few large losses can wipe out many modest gains and leave a lasting stain on a portfolio (large losses are more likely to arise in speculations as opposed to core positions). I also did not suggest those who know the difference should not speculate--and I have done so myself in earlier decades.

    As for my comments on BBL, they are on the record...here: http://bit.ly/1FC6VBp and here: http://bit.ly/1FC6Ttb

    IMO, Billiton is a deep-value play, not a speculation (and my limit buy order was recently executed).

    OTOH, materials companies are known to be extra-cyclical, and I hold BBL and my other cyclicals in my Opportunistic Portfolio because I do not see them as a core position. I will start selling down my cyclicals about the time the world economy rolls over into contraction, hopefully another 2 years or so.

    I have enough Energy Sector representation, but wanted to add materials to participate in their potential upside. Having 55 positions, I wanted materials representation in as few added companies as practicable...BBL fits my needs (others may want to consider 2 or 3 companies mining only iron, copper, and/or coal).

    Will BBL become a mistake? Time will tell, but IMO the probabilities are it is not. In the meantime, I consider the dividend reasonably safe--the payout ratio is about 46% (and though 71% of FCF, I expect reduced capex in 2015, as it prepares and executes its demerger).

    I take risk very seriously. I moderate risk by limiting my Opportunistic Portfolio to about 25% of my total portfolio, and limit position-size to between 40% and 60% of the size of core positions.

    I hope that addresses your question.

    Rich
    Nov 28, 2014. 01:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Away From Seadrill [View article]
    It's clear many SDIs were lured into 'buying yield' in SDRL, in ARCP, in PSEC, and other highly leveraged companies having high debt, junk or near-junk credit ratings, and questionable management--and always doing so in spite of widespread cautions in the financial media and among respected advisers of the significant risks in doing so.

    That's not a surprise. Many do not distinguish between a speculation and an investment.

    What is somewhat surprising (and certainly disappointing) is the number of SDIs who, having been lured in by a vastly over-competitive yield, consider it their responsibility as owners to abandon their (otherwise) good sense--defend the company's questionable practices, encourage others to buy the company (support the stock price), and having no effective counter to negative comments--resort to accusations they must be shorting the company.

    Perhaps the best fit explanation is 'misery loves company'.
    Nov 28, 2014. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Aristocrats In Focus Part 44: Medtronic [View article]
    The U.K. includes England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.
    The U.K. does have a tax treaty with the USA, and dividends are NOT taxed.
    Nov 27, 2014. 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: A Solid Income Stock Bound For A Rebound [View article]
    berloe -- My thoughts in response to your query...

    T is making moves to enhance its growth potential, and that's good for long-term owners (as is its present bidding on increased spectrum). T has an A- credit rating and debt/equity is 82%, versus VZ's A- rating and debt/equity of 658%, and acquisitions are generally funded by debt.

    As for the dividend, anything is possible, but a dividend freeze or cut is a low-probability event IMO.

    Incidentally, in addition to DishNetwork (if approved), T has agreed to buy (and needs approval for) a Mexican telecom company, and has expressed an interest in buying a portion of Carlos Slim's Mexican telecom empire which the government is forcing him to divest. (OTOH, T can't buy every shiny object it covets.)

    IMO, given T's entrenched position in telecom, and the quasi-utility oligopoly nature of telecom, there are few companies having current yields exceeding 5% in which I would have greater confidence--and I'd be interested in reviewing the nominations of others.

    Rich
    Nov 27, 2014. 07:28 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Mills, Inc. Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    There you go again...I was letting the billionaire thing rest, and it was yourself that chose to resurrect it on another article.
    Nov 27, 2014. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Every Dividend Growth Investor Should Own Kinder Morgan [View article]
    OPEC holds to current production ceiling...oil on the NYMEX falls to $69 and change.
    Nov 27, 2014. 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: A Solid Income Stock Bound For A Rebound [View article]
    AA -- Your conclusions seem about right to myself.*

    Rich-unck:24hrs

    * While I agree with your essential points, compared to yourself I take a more positive view of your supporting points, e.g., T's dividend is growing (though modestly); T has produced positive earnings for at least the last 10 consecutive years, and positive total returns annually since 2009 (though negative in 2008, T still out-performed the market by 9.4 percentage points); 'dead money' cannot fairly be defined as under-performance versus the market; T is not dead money so long as its total returns are positive, or exceed those of a riskless investment.
    Nov 27, 2014. 07:52 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Every Dividend Growth Investor Should Own Kinder Morgan [View article]
    Eli -- Happy Thanksgiving!
    Nov 27, 2014. 07:01 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Mills, Inc. Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    Serenity -- First, you operate an independent Graham site, and hope to steer others to your site by using 'alleged' errors as a pretext to continuously put your site before the readers, who will in turn enroll in your service without paying for the advertising as do others.

    Second, regarding your reference to comments in another article (here:)
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    I commented (correctly) that Buffett was a millionaire (not a billionaire) until after Munger joined him; I ignored your reply because it was not worthy of a return comment--but since you now insist, my reply is to borrow from Mark Twain..."There are liars, damn liars, and statistics". It was disingenuous of you to claim WB was a billionaire in 1983 by your having adjusted his true $620 million of wealth so you could claim he was in 1983 a billionaire by way of inflation-adjusted dollars.

    Rich
    Nov 26, 2014. 07:09 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Mills, Inc. Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    Serenity -- Seems like everywhere I go, I see your ad for the Graham Number, and the text is always the same or similar...it also seems that because you are a contributor, you are getting a free ride on that form of advertising--whereas E-Trade (to the left), and Vanguard (to the right) are paying for ad placement.
    Nov 26, 2014. 03:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 52 Fairly Valued REITs For Substantial Total Income For Your Retirement Portfolios [View article]
    gabby -- Please accept my apology.

    Instead, go to Wikipedia.com,
    in the search bar enter: List of S&P 500 companies

    Rich
    Nov 26, 2014. 02:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 52 Fairly Valued REITs For Substantial Total Income For Your Retirement Portfolios [View article]
    mj -- I understand knowing the weighted allocation of REITs within the S&P500 could be of interest (such as to those who use the S&P's sector allocation as a benchmark for their own portfolio construction and/or re-balancing). Incidentally, there are actually 502 companies in the S&P500.

    Unfortunately, though stats on the present 10 sectors are common, I was unable to locate an allocations on an Industry basis. Here is a Sector Allocation:
    http://bit.ly/1vlX5lN

    OTOH, Financials are now about 16% of the S&P500--and exceeded only by Information Technology at about 20%--both being much larger today than in the depths of the recent recession.

    REITs are almost all smallcaps and midcaps (and the S&P500 is labeled a largecap index). We know the S&P500 companies are not of equal size, and if they were, any 16 companies would be about 3.2% of an unweighted index. So I'll offer a SWAG those 16 eREITs presently included in the Finance Sector would comprise about 3% percent of total Finance, and likely <1% of the weighted S&P500.

    The good news...as we get closer to the effective date of the 11th sector, I expect we will see several reports directed to your need.

    Rich
    Nov 26, 2014. 01:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Aristocrats In Focus Part 44: Medtronic [View article]
    I've been long MDT for 3 yrs 2 months, and it is among those horses pulling my wagon the hardest (and deserves a rest).

    My total returns on invested capital are comfortable north of 100%. Net of dividends and shares trimmed for profits, my capital at risk is down to 58% of invested capital, and the value of my remaining shares exceed my total invested capital, thereby reducing my risk.

    For myself, MDT is an excellent example of the low-beta, low-yield, high-growth, companies I often recommend be combined with other higher-yield companies in my portfolio (they provide an extra boost to the portfolio's TR).

    OTOH, investing is about the future, not the past. IMO, MTD is a tad overvalued today, and I'm more likely to sell a few shares than buy any.

    Rich-unck:24hrs
    Nov 26, 2014. 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 52 Fairly Valued REITs For Substantial Total Income For Your Retirement Portfolios [View article]
    DVK -- Thanks, I hadn't seen the Forbes article (as I didn't find it in a Forbe's search, perhaps you can provide a link). I don't recall seeing that separation mentioned by S&P. You are correct, S&P will add the 11th sector in 2016.

    The mortgage (mREITs) are obviously a horse of a different color, and creating separation from equity (eREITs) is appropriate IMO; it would seem logical the best way to separate them would be for the mREITs to remain in the Financials Sector, while moving the eREITs to the new Real Estate Sector.*

    Incidentally, none of the mREITs are large enough to be included in the 16 REITs listed in the S&P 500 companies by sector and industry.

    Rich
    ___________
    *As an aside, the mREITs deal in paper (generally electronic transactions representing paper), and do not actually invest in physical land, thus I'm a bit surprised they received approval as REITs years ago--that's an opinion, and of course others will quickly take the opposite view.

    As an investment, I have little present interest in mREITs, as I view them as having elevated-risks until interest rates 'normalize', and eventually start another cycle of decline; the same reason I don't presently hold bonds.
    Nov 26, 2014. 09:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
9,462 Comments
21,227 Likes