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  • Don't Underestimate Kraft's Dividend [View article]
    Ron -- Very well said.
    Oct 19 08:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Stock Market Correction Over? [View article]
    strike -- I believe you misunderstand.

    It's not a question of Rothchild being "always right". Rather it is a misuse of his reference to "blood running in the streets" is comparing a mere 6 or 7% decline with lost fortunes, widespread bankruptcy and very high unemployment, and a collapse or near-collapse of markets -- we are a very, very long way from blood running in the streets.

    To describe a modest pullback as blood running in the streets is laughable.

    Oct 19 08:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Stock Market Correction Over? [View article]
    dj -- A 10 or 20% correction is not what Barron Rothchild had in mind when he referred to blood running in the streets...think 1929 or perhaps late 2008/early 2009.
    Oct 19 08:05 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Stock Market Correction Over? [View article]
    A few random thoughts...
    1. At the month's beginning, I offered that October was likely to be a scary month...and it is thus far, in spite of Jeff's reminder it is statistically a favorable month.

    2. Jeff's 30-day (actually 3-wk) conservative market forecast is Bearish for a second week -- so's mine.

    3. If we ask 5 investors (including a couple professionals) to define market timing, we'll get 5 very different replies. Thus in the broad sense, Klarman's definition of value investing is essentially a timing of beaten-down stocks (he even uses "timing" in his example, but it can also be applied to indexes, including sectors). I'm a value investor, and I admit to timing my every purcbase. It is very likely a largecap leader in its industry, fallen on hard times by its errors or competitive pressure will actually fail (so long as it has a strong credit rating). Intel, Microsoft, and Cisco are recent examples. I only buy at FV or below, and expect the market to eventually value my companies at higher prices (while I collect dividends). Of course when the facts change, I change.

    Oct 19 07:51 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Underestimate Kraft's Dividend [View article]
    IMO Mike, "Nobody is looking after my money but me" ranks equally high.

    Some are too busy, too old, or just uninterested in devoting the time required to study the economy, markets, & stocks; they hire fund managers or investment managers to do it for them.

    That's fine and even appropriate. However, though they can delegate the authority to manage their financial future, they cannot delegate the ultimate responsibility.

    Oct 19 06:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why CSX Stock Is A Good Investment Opportunity [View article]
    Ari -- I am long CSX and in agreement with your analysis.

    Unfortunately, IMO your article will receive scant attention in the Income section, in spite of CSX's exceptional DGR. Most DGIs have minimum yields around 2.5%, and little respect for CSX's 36% total return over the last 12 months.

    Having a combination of ute-like near monapoly in its service area, plus unbeatable low-cost in long distance transportation--makes all rails worthy of my core portfolio when priced at FV (which CSX is).

    Oct 18 09:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Value - With Apologies To Graham And Buffett [View article]
    varan -- You have been in the Income section long enough to write the response to your comment.

    You mention performance, but you know others are less interested in total returns than you or I, and instead dedicate themselves to an income stream.

    it's not my strategy, but I respect it...why don't you?

    Oct 18 08:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Underestimate Kraft's Dividend [View article]
    richin10 -- I'm going to make this short, as I'm traveling to Williamsburg for a week and using a tablet.

    First I suggest you consult Mike's article linked above ('recent survey') and check the FV of those companies at M*--3 stars represent FV, 4 and 5 stars are below FV.

    Keep in mind it is never helpful to buy a company you don't have full confidence in (i.e., don't buy because Eli, Mike, Chowder, or Rich like it for their portfolio).

    Finally, from my own portfolio, and not mentioned in your comment, I recommend due diligence to determine if any of these undervalued companies might be of interest to yourself:


    The list of fairly valued companies is much longer.

    I hope this responds to your inquiry.

    Oct 18 08:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Underestimate Kraft's Dividend [View article]
    Kraft ($18 billion TTM revenue) has struggled following the spin-off of MDLZ ($35 billion); and is now essentially an untested company (with huge brands), and has produced erratic performance metrics over the brief period since its 4th quarter of 2012 re-organization as a North American-only manufacturer/marketer of packaged food and beverage products.

    Kraft paid its first dividend <2 years ago (January 2013).

    Input costs and competitive pressure are a problem for Kraft, and it is hopeful price increases will power its financial metrics through rough seas.

    I'm long KRFT. However, I do not consider KRFT a quality investment equal to KO, PG, JNJ, or KMB mentioned above. If Kraft's earnings power is demonstrated to be their equal, it follows their long-term DGR will be satisfactory or better.

    In the meantime, as yield is a function of share price, many wonderful companies are now fairly valued or below and also offer attractive yields, and have useful DGR track records.

    Kraft products are consumer staples, and thus (hopefully) the shares have limited downside in spite of its erratic top and bottom line performance to date.

    Long: JNJ, KMB, KO, KRFT, MDLZ, & PG

    Oct 18 08:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Myths About SeaDrill That Could Cost You Real Money [View article]
    EG -- Ten thousand thanks.

    I was in the early stage of considering a position in SDL, but have reconsidered and decided the risk is presently greater than the rewards (I'm interested in a company that might cut its dividend).
    Oct 17 04:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Nifty Fifty, Part 1 - Dividend Growth Style [View article]
    Mike -- Gotta uncheck now.

    326 comments and counting; you're article is too popular.

    Oct 17 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Biggest Benefit Of Verizon And AT&T May Be Low Volatility [View article]
    Thank you Robert, that was exceptionally kind.
    Oct 17 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Nifty Fifty, Part 1 - Dividend Growth Style [View article]
    Chowder -- I was referring to approximate closing prices.

    However, it is being reported this morning from the all-time intra-day high to the intra-day, the S&P's decline was about 9.9%.

    Using the intra-day change:
    High = Sept. 19 @2019.26
    Low = Oct. 15 @ 1820.66
    Difference = 198.60 = 9.84%

    An 'official' correction starts at 10% (and a bear market at 20%). Though today looks to open much higher than yesterday's close, we can't assume we have seen the low for this decline.

    Oct 17 07:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Nifty Fifty, Part 1 - Dividend Growth Style [View article]
    Thanks Mike.
    Oct 17 07:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Value - With Apologies To Graham And Buffett [View article]
    I've tired of the escalating depictions of Mr. Market as an idiot (I'm referring to some other SA authors).

    Mr. Market is us...all investors, from the largest to the smallest institutions, hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds, SDIs, and even "mom and pop". Some trade every hour of every day, and some weekly, monthly, or even rarely. Some have a degree of influence on Mr. Market's prices, and some have almost zero.

    Those who describe Mr. Market as an idiot shouting ridiculous prices don't really understand the market is an auction of participating buyers and sellers...and like all auctions, participation is voluntary (and Mr. Market's shifting moods are not those of an unseen hand--those are our moods).

    "If you don't like the heat, leave the kitchen" (Harry S. Truman, the first president I remember).

    I strongly doubt SDIs will sharpen their investing skills by ignoring TV and newspaper articles describing the economy and influences upon Mr. Market's companies--that only indicates you lack critical listening an reading skills, and thus prefer to cocoon yourself in near-ignorance (or have a need to expose yourself to only that which confirms your bias).


    p.s. As a result of my participation in Mr. Market's auction over my first 2 decades of investing, I retired at age 53. As a result of my continued participation over 2+ additional decades, I am now financially independent in the event of any recession (or even depression). You should all be so fortunate.
    Oct 17 06:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment