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AndrewBaker

AndrewBaker
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  • Wall Street Breakfast: How Does The Wild Week End? [View article]
    Some items of interest: North and South Korea are (almost) 'buddies' again, China market volatility and actions are showing signs of returning to (what for them is) stability, Japan is responding in a positive manner, and crude prices are steadying. All we need now is a little rise in the Baltic Dry Index, which will indicate world trade is staring to pick up again; and then that will signal rises in Far East and Asian stock markets, that have suffered so much, and are now, IMHO, worth buying back into.

    The darkest hour is always just before the dawn...
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: How Does The Wild Week End? [View article]
    Inflation happens when prices go up, which happens when pay goes up, which happens when labor markets are strong, which happens when there are more jobs available than people who are looking for work, which happens when economies are booming such that businesses are facing higher demand for their goods and services than they can provide with current production and staffing levels; ergo, that is why we currently have no inflation, and we are flirting in some cases with deflation.

    If, like myself, you believe that the recent big sell off marks the bottom - whichever 'bottom' you want to be considering, as regards business and finance - then now is the time to be readying cash to buy back into markets, whilst others are panicking and selling, causing artificially low prices.

    By the time inflation is once again the dreaded word being reported and talked about as a bad thing, the opportunities to have bought cheaply will have long gone.
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: World Stocks Don Rally Caps [View article]
    Stops are necessary, but not a necessary sell: one should always look at the wider market and economy generally when a stop is triggered. It is only a number, and serves only to draw attention to the stock or security in question, in order that an evaluation may be made as to selling (given stop loss, and not stop profit is being discussed). Timing the market is very difficult to get right in normal periods, but timing it when volatility is so high at the same time that fundamentals are not showing a clear direction, is nigh enough impossible; so selling out on a sharp fall can mean buying back after a big rise produces a loss compared to having sat on ones hands, which I advocated yesterday; and not buying back because of wanting to avoid that loss can exacerbate the problem if the price continues to rise and thus go against you even more.

    If it was that easy, we'd all be doing it, and then there wouldn't be a market anyway!
    Aug 27, 2015. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Is The Worst Over? [View article]
    Usually use of the expression "sit on one's hands" is meant to imply inaction, dithering and lack of certainty or confidence in what to do: I am sitting firmly on my hands until this all blows over and the markets regain a grip again with reality.

    If the real world trading, actions and aspirations of stock markets businesses bounced up and down with the same volatility as their market quotes/prices do when panic and fear set in, every company would go bust on a regular basis: and that does not happen. And is it being suggested that the values that had been put on quoted businesses by so many analysts, buyers and sellers over the past [you name the] period, have been so far out that none of them deserves their jobs because they just got it so wrong? I don't think so.

    In 1987 markets were back at pre-drop levels within a year. If you're investing in the markets with a time horizon of less than five years, you shouldn't be there anyway.

    I'd drink to the above ... but I'm sitting on my hands.
    Aug 26, 2015. 10:52 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Stocks Head For Worst Week Of 2015 [View article]
    Just seen this, regarding the $300,000,000 gold buy by Soros associate Druckenmiller:

    http://bit.ly/1PDxq03

    Soooo ... I'm not alone, lol.
    Aug 21, 2015. 12:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Stocks Head For Worst Week Of 2015 [View article]
    ... and a suggestion to the brave, shorter term traders (and maybe longer term investors too): look at the gold index for the last month compared to the last year, then look at GDX, a gold miners ETF which is a geared play on the gold price. Worth buying right now, I say.

    Disclosure: long GDX(and have been for a while, lol).
    Aug 21, 2015. 09:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Stocks Head For Worst Week Of 2015 [View article]
    China is a reality; and if it is not growing as official figures previously suggested, that is bad news for the world's economies. Have Chinese figures been massaged to suggest higher growth than the reality? The yuan is devalued, the Chinese markets - albeit after a massive one-year rise - are dropping, oil prices are down more than the overproduction by OPEC would reasonably suggest, Dr. Copper has a nasty bout of illness and his price is at a five-year low, and the Baltic Dry Index is flirting with resistance at the 1000 level: and if that drops and stays below, then we really may be looking at a new worldwide recession.

    I truly hope that we are only experiencing a useful and perhaps overdue correction, and that after the holidays and towards the New Year, matters may improve; but we all need to be very vigilant, hold our cash for longer, and take our profits rather than hold on if weakness continues. And in such a scenario, do not expect rate rises any time soon, or at best maybe a one or two basis point token rise, as any more would destabilize an already shaky situation.

    All IMHO. Have a good weekend, everyone.
    Aug 21, 2015. 07:56 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: China Stock Plunge Weighs On World Markets [View article]
    The bodies may be US cars but the engines of many are Japanese: when the original gave or gives up the ghost, they strip it out and replace with an engine from another car, often Japanese. Can't see a collector wanting one of those.

    ... and if you do visit Cuba, don't expect to follow your stock portfolio or post on Seeking Alpha: the internet isn't that easy to access, to say the least!

    But you will get good medical treatment, even though the doc only gets paid around US $30 per month.
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: China Stock Plunge Weighs On World Markets [View article]
    And guess what? You can't even emigrate to another country to get away from the IRS: if you're a US citizen or resident alien, you still have to pay tax on your income wherever it comes from, and to file a tax return, wherever you live in the world. The US is the only country in the world that taxes its citizens living abroad on their worldwide income. The Philippines taxes its nationals living abroad only on their income that is earned in the Philippines; and Eritrea expects a 2% tax to help rebuild the country after many years of war, but doesn't chase anyone abroad who doesn't pay it.

    In any other country in the world, if you don't like your home country taxes, you can leave and not pay them: but not if you are a US citizen; they've got you by those proverbial round things!
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:06 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Airbus Clinches Largest-Ever Plane Order [View article]
    The problem with infrastructure is that roads, bridges, ports, both air and sea, and similar constructions are built to last for decades, so when public money is short for whatever reason, the politicians - whose own time horizon is far shorter and based on the next election - cut funding for repairs and new construction: with the inevitable result in time, but after the politicians have won, lost or gone away, that what is there doesn't function properly any more and even becomes dangerous due to disrepair; or the new technology that was required but didn't get done, makes for a lagging behind in competitiveness compared with other countries that did built those cutting-edge widgets and thus stole a march.
    Aug 17, 2015. 09:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Greek Parliament Approves Bailout Deal [View article]
    BP manipulated the Texas natural gas market ...

    If the company was called USP and not BP, not only would the judges not find against it so much, but they would probably lock up anyone who dared suggest any wrongdoing.
    Aug 14, 2015. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Retail Sales In Focus [View article]
    GregScotts, hi:

    An extract of your post: "Pop your phone in your pocket and take the office with you. This device will be your connection in to the matrix and will run your life." May I, jocularly but seriously also, suggest you missed out an 'i' as the 3rd. letter of 'run'?
    Aug 13, 2015. 11:23 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Retail Sales In Focus [View article]
    Like railways, like cars, like airplanes before them, computers are not just ubiquitous now but the manufacturers, both hardware and software, are mature businesses in an extremely competitive environment. It's getting harder and harder to stand out and have a unique produce that is a must-have, so margins get pared down, and costs need ever watching. None of the businesses in this sector can sit on their laurels, and more will face reduced profits; and losses will happen in the future to those who fall behind.
    Aug 13, 2015. 07:29 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Retail Sales In Focus [View article]
    Canada's October election has become the latest event shaping the seven-year saga of TransCanada's (NYSE:TRP) Keystone XL pipeline...

    It's not needed and only wanted by those who will make money from it, not those who will suffer because of it. There is more than money in life, or there should be, and this should be taken into account as much as the dollars and cents.
    Aug 13, 2015. 07:23 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Retail Sales In Focus [View article]
    Demand for gold fell to its lowest in six years in the second quarter...

    Just as gold starts into a new uptrend, this gets published!!! This must be one of the most manipulated commodities ever, and done in so many different ways. If demand is now, not yesterday, last week or whenever in the past, but now, so low, how come it has been rising in price since the beginning of August, nearly two weeks now? Could it be that not only is it so oversold, but also still a hedge against not just inflation - which as there is little if any at this time, is one reason it has fallen out of favor - but against fiat currencies too?

    In my humble opinion, gold is a necessary part of an investment portfolio in order to hedge against a number of factors that take values of other holdings down. And given its price now, I can see gold rising further over the coming months.

    Disclosure: still long Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which is a geared play on the price of gold.
    Aug 13, 2015. 07:19 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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