RomanFinancial

To Heck with Fundamentals: Dow 11,000 Is Up Next

You sell January 2010. Buy out of the money puts


On Oct 19 06:54 PM The Geoffster wrote:

> When do I sell?

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

I'm laughing.... hard. Life is too short to not enjoy the incompetence of society.


On Mar 19 07:28 AM pacman1947 wrote:

> Can you imagine having these conversations just over a year ago?
> It's like reading a comic book or watching Stewart late night --
> a joke, right? The Fed floating $5 trillion in counterfeit money
> to pay off our banks, insurance companies, China and our foreign
> debtors? Bonuses of hundreds of millions to crooks that bilked the
> Treasury of more billions? Millions of homeowners foreclosed and
> on the street after their jobs were trashed? Ponzi schemers who got
> away for years with billions of pension and charity money from widows
> and orphans?
>
> I'm not laughing anymore. It ain't funny.

Signs of the Apocalypse in Markets?

Macro Man and Paul Krugman are all you can trust in environments these days.

World Equity Markets Take Two Steps Forward and Two Steps Back

I gave you a thumbs down as I am from California, and while your logic is sound in certain areas it lacks logic in general.

First off, you are correct that the stability in our dollar and the international holdings of our dollar have kept the U.S. from bankruptcy. But since the 70's our country has run off a balance, a net deficit that is. It will continue because other countries pour their exports into our homes enticing foolish credit expanders into purchasing said exports. These export countries give Americans credit to purchase these items so their own growth continues to expand. Soon credit gets contracted and our balance gets so high the exports stop flowing...hurting the world. We are essentially the worlds unpaid festering credit card with only export countries to blame for the allowable credit. As soon as export countries learn to stop using the "bloated credit car" (A.K.A: America) for their capital dumping needs the world will balance out until another credit card is found and others dump on them - most likely Brazil or China next.

Second, Europe has severe problems America does not fortunately share - that is very unstable countries like Bulgaria and Greece sharing the currency. These countries have unstable governments that have a risk model included into the EUR currency value, which has to incorporate their possible default. EUR also has a legislative and economic challenge; working together efficiently. EUR has yet to do so and many countries have major disagreements to the direction of EUR, thereby making the EUR more volatile.

Third, Europeans tend to be snide, snobby, stinky, foolish humans. They think they are removed from abject moves of imperialism yet the world lay in utter shit due to their visions of grandeur. They preach nonviolence as they lay under the bicep of Russia's natural gas exports and middle east oil. U.S. takes a different stance - we tend to believe that beating the crap out of the weakest kid in the room will send chills to bullies of equal value to us like china. Also, as a Limey you should be more concerned with the absolute collapse of the pound and your total infrastructure failure. UK is a smoldering heap of burning "rubbish". While here in California we tend to have credit expanding idiots, we will become more humble over the matters and will learn to cease complaining like EUR continues to do...





On Feb 03 01:46 PM OldLimey wrote:

> Of course the Anglo-American media blitz against the EUR will continue.
> After all, any threat to the USD's primacy as the world's reserve
> currency - no matter how distant that threat - has to be addressed
> because that primacy is pretty much all that separates the US from
> outright default on its foreign debt. But could somebody, after they've
> hit the thumb's down of course, explain this to me: why does the
> potential default of Ireland or Greece pose a threat to the viability
> of the EUR when the obvious bankruptcy of California (one of the
> world's top ten economies) is immaterial to the upward march of the
> USD?

E*TRADE FINANCIAL Corporation Q4 2008 Earnings Call Transcript

Agreed.


On Jan 29 05:49 AM constructe wrote:

> It is too bad that E*Trade ever got into the home loan market. Talk
> about diverging dramatically from its core business. The long cleanup
> has been slow but at least they are doing it. I wish banks would
> be more forthright and forthcoming on such measures.

The State of Financial Markets and U.S. Dollar in 2009, Part I

This was quite the comprehensive piece here. Pharms will probably get love from institutional investors around March-April. Earnings releases were decent for Q4, but they still have significant write-offs. The banking system has definitely contracted to a level appropriate. Additionally, 09 will see a lot of debt unloaded from 08 and thus a forced credit expansion. However, Feb will be the worst month so far which we'll see through the lenses of SRS as commercial space unoccupied will lower the value of REITS even further. Additionally, bank write-offs due to unsecured lending on commercial RE will drop pushing Q1 09 write-offs to it's peak...

How to Trade in 2009

Looks like these charts are done in E*Trade Pro. My favorite platform! Excellent macro analysis. This is good stuff!

Forex: Why the Dollar Is Staying Strong

Well this is because we are not having a strong dollar, we are in a deflationary period, plus historically the dollar has been stable when currencies like the Yen and Jakarta are suffering.


On Jan 07 01:27 PM silverwood wrote:

> Andrew Wilkinson says
> "When the President-elect speaks and sends a chilling message, it’s
> worth listening despite the fact that he is still a couple of weeks
> shy of inauguration. When he finally gets to the White House, much
> might not have improved for the economy. That tells us that a stronger
> dollar rather than a weaker one will likely greet him on Pennsylvania
> Avenue."
>
> So I gather that a weak or sick economy spells a strong dollar, then
> as the economy improves the dollar should weaken, right? There is
> just something intuitively wrong with this picture. I could understand
> the deleveraging effect as traders unwound positions and covered
> loans causing a demand for the dollar. So are we to expect another
> round of this?

Forex: Why the Dollar Is Staying Strong

I very much agree with this analysis. Deflationary period will reverse end of Q2.

Four Stocks for 2009

Well, I own a truck load of JASO with a cost basis of $10.80 a share. If this stock rises to $20 where it belongs by Q3 I'l buy seeking alpha a new 7 series BMW with fitted logos. This stock could be the life or death of my fortune

Apple: A Question of Leadership

Preposterous article. Steve Jobs has been on the innovative side of nearly every move in a heavy market share transition period for Apple. When Bill gates left the company, it had reached it's optimum market share. Apple on the other hand has a long way to go. Plus Apple's appeal is more on new groundbreaking products, not the case for Berkshire Hathaway, Walmart, Microsoft, and DELL. These companies thrive off of basic neccessity products. You don't need an IPOD but you need Walmart's cheap prices, a computer with solid OS, and coke.

Fairy Tales: Reassessing the Market Mindset

Death, ignorance, and taxes are all you can be sure of. I suppose however, that the next thing is what to expect for the next decade. I ponder a repositioning of American Hegemony will realign our stock markets at the % level declines of the London Stock Exchange in the 50's. It won't happen overnight, but it will eat at our infastructure like termites until we learn controlling the world has diminishing returns.

First Call of a Double-Dip Recession: Setting Up a Market Bottom?

I wouldn't try to catch falling knifes. Your best bet is to watch level II quotes on QQQQ's and predict the only safe industry - pharms.