Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View TRHanson's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Why I Hate Apple [View article]

    I wasn't explicitly saying $1bn in relation to apple, I was answering the question about the law of large numbers as it applies (or possibly gives the illusion of applying) to investment.

    I teeter on wanting to own apple and being unable to pull the trigger. Not because of how large they are, just that in my opinion, their products are overpriced, under-powered, and insanely locked down. I have a company supplied iPhone and dislike it. A lot. But Apple is trendy, and all the cool kids have it. They rake in profits. So I sit on the fence wanting to jump into that pool of profit, while in the back of my mind fear that when I do, people will finally realize that there are superior phones for less or same money.
    Dec 5, 2014. 03:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Hate Apple [View article]
    It's pretty easy to double a dollar. It's difficult to double $1bn. That's the general gist. It means that the larger the company, the more difficult it is to maintain past results.
    Dec 5, 2014. 02:33 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem With 'Just Exchanging Your Shares' [View article]
    "Most people have as much of their asset base in tax-deferred accounts (IRAs, etc.) as possible so changing the mix to get additional dividends is a non event."

    I just want to say that this isn't really a good argument. Young professionals (I'm including people that have a degree and are making a decent return on that degree) are easily capping out their IRAs. 401ks are tough to cap out, and for a lot of people you wouldn't want to because most 401k plans are garbage (I know mine certainly is). I actually budget to invest 3x the IRA cap. So while yes, I have as much of my asset base in a tax deferred account (as allowed by law), I have a lot of investment dollars that *must* be in a taxable account.

    I mostly agree with your other points. Anytime you pick N companies and compare it, you'll probably end up cherry picking ones that "prove" your point. But by that same token, those 6 that were picked are definitely a group of stocks that many people probably held in their portfolios.
    Nov 13, 2014. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Is It Time To Dump These Dividend Aristocrats? [View article]
    I'm still long KO, but sold my MCD a couple of quarters ago. I haven't been happy with the direction MCD was going in a while, and I actually went there with a friend. It was disgusting. Nuked burger, soggy fries, not clean interior. It really made me do more looking into MCD and I just can't get behind it anymore, so I took my profits. Fast food is very competitive, and the overall decline in ff is troubling. Couple that with the decline in food quality and it's not looking good. Their menu is a mess (not that BKs menu is any better).

    KO has some problems, but I think they have a better chance at fixing it. Their recent acquisitions haven't been particularly well performed, but I think they are trying to move in the right direction. I also still consume coke products, and like them. I think it says a lot about if you should own a company if you like or loath their product.
    Oct 24, 2014. 10:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris beats by $0.06, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Revenue down 1% y/y and volume down 0.4% y/y is good?

    I'm long PM, but when i see volumes and revenues heading down, it makes me a bit nervous.
    Oct 16, 2014. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sony to reportedly charge up to $80/month for Web TV service [View news story]
    << TV network owners remain as uncompromising as ever in their refusal to break up traditional pay-TV bundles >>

    This is why I gave up pay TV all together. Netflix + an OTA antenna is WAY cheaper and I get way more value out of it. I don't need to pay $60+ for the 4 channels I would watch and 96 channels I wouldn't.
    Oct 7, 2014. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Beginning A Retirement Portfolio At A Market Top [View article]
    <<Beginning a retirement portfolio at a market top.

    Not the best situation.>>

    I don't think anybody here would argue against that position, but what determines a market top? In 2006, people probably thought that was a top. Maybe in 2007 same thing. There was a top followed by a hard crash, but if it was easy to predict a top and a bottom, everybody would do it and the tops and the bottoms would level out. But this is a fantasy world.

    For the most part, if we are talking about *building* a retirement portfolio, this probably means that you are going to be pumping money into this portfolio in regular intervals. If you have a lot of money sitting on the sideline, it's probably harder to jump in. If I had 250k+ that I wanted to put in the market, I would probably try to spread that out evenly over 5 or so years. Possibly poor use, but you can dollar cost average better in the event of a decline, but I'm wandering from my point.

    My point is this: if you are adding money to an account in regular intervals, entry point means less and less. I was lucky. I graduated college winter 2008. I started pumping a 401k and a Roth IRA in 2009 riding that inline and setting up a base. But lets assume I did this in 2007 instead. My initial investments lost A LOT. But I would have been continuing to pump on the way down and would dollar cost average that I probably ended up with a significant increase by the time the market returned to the previous value.

    That all being said, I still will hunt for the bargains to buy, but I won't sit on funds for extended periods of time due to inflation loss. So I like the buy the dips approach, but thats me...
    Oct 6, 2014. 03:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Phillip Morris: Will Collateral Damage From Reynolds American Judgment Create Opportunity? [View article]
    China is a tough situation. PM licenses to the state run cigarette manufacture (Chinese National Tobacco Corporation) to make Marlboro in China. While this seems good (they are getting money from the Chinese market), it puts them in a tough spot if/when China allows for foreign manufacturers to sell tobacco in China. Hopefully they have some sort of escape clause in their licensing agreement, or their premium brand may be lost in China.
    Jul 21, 2014. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin/Litecoin Miners Leave AMD And Nvidia In The Dust [View article]

    The cost of both the Xbone and PS4 comes in just under their retail prices. I'm not sure how much retailers make on the consoles, but I'd bet they pay less than the cost of the consoles. The PS3 wasn't profitable for a long time and the 360 wasn't initially either. They'll lose money on the hardware up front with the idea of making it back on licensing for software that is sold. Every game sold, the console maker gets a cut of. Sort of like how a McDonalds owner probably loses money on dollar menu items, but they expect to make it back up and more on the drink that the person also buys.
    Jun 26, 2014. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris Shows Strength, Despite Recent Blows To The Industry [View article]
    I think I'd take my chances with the smokes, haha.
    Jun 25, 2014. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • French minister tells GE to make new proposal for Alstom [View news story]
    You do know that GE had a footprint in France prior to this right?
    Jun 25, 2014. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Fire Phone Is A Flop [View article]
    Steve, check out Straight Talk. They run on the major networks (if you buy online you can chose) and it runs $45/month unlimited talk and text with 2 gb of data, i think. I'm doing that all off memory, so actual values may be different.
    Jun 24, 2014. 05:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin/Litecoin Miners Leave AMD And Nvidia In The Dust [View article]
    For the record, once again, ATI cards top the best bang for the buck meters over at tom's hardware:

    That includes the high end market.

    @Tri it's tough to say what console designers will choose for the next generation, but assuming its going to be x86 based doesn't have a lot of history backing it up. Yes, the PS4 and Xbone both use that architecture, but the 360 was PowerPC based, and the Ps3 was cell based. PS2 I believe was MIPS based and the OG xbox was Pentium 3 based (which would be x86). I'm not going to say it isn't going to stay that way, but I wouldn't say it's going to with any conviction.
    Jun 24, 2014. 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fertilizer Company With $31.17 EPS, $1 Dividends, Low P/E And High Margin [View article]
    For some reason, I didn't realize that there was going to be that much capex in the next 2 years. With that in mind, you are probably correct, that if we see dividend increases, they will probably be modest.
    May 21, 2014. 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fertilizer Company With $31.17 EPS, $1 Dividends, Low P/E And High Margin [View article]
    For some reason CF has traded between a PE of about 6 to about 10 for a while, if you ignore the recovery in 2011 where the price jumped ahead of the earnings while earnings were rebounding. I don't think that will change any time soon, but going back to a pe of about 10 is pretty reasonable to think. Near term gain of around 25% for that.

    I've owned CF for a while. I like the stock, and the company. I've said before that the one thing people will not and can not stop doing is farming. And as the arable land is somewhat static, but the world population continues to increase, yield is going to become more and more important, meaning fertilizer is going to be more and more important. Everybody should own a fertilizer stock, and I think CF is in a great position value wise.

    The other thing to note about CF is that it is in a pretty explosive dividend growth territory. Yes, the yield is only 1.61%, but they've been growing their dividend incredibly fast with a 5 year DGR at 48%. That's not sustainable, of course, but with a payout ratio of only 9% and profits that continue to rise, we'll see double digit dividend growth for a long while.

    Right now, we're cyclical down for the farm industry. I don't know for how much longer, but I've filled my position in both CF and DE somewhat recently. And I look at them as hold forever stocks.
    May 21, 2014. 10:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment