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Smee

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  • Keurig Green Mountain Market Response Today Vs. MM Forecasts [View article]
    If you would, please tell me more about the list: where do you find it; how much does it cost; how do you go about buying it on a regular basis; what's on the list?

    My own experience with GMCR has been pretty good. It turned up on one of the One True Way SA Public Lists last fall, and I just kept it since then. Since I don't know of any way to get regular replacement candidates (i.e. new lists) on a regular basis, I usually just hang on to items that have met their up-side predictions. So far that has worked out pretty well.

    But I would like to have new options on a regular basis from new lists.

    Regards,
    Smee
    Aug 24 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market-Makers: Equity Investment Know-It-Alls In 2013? [View article]
    Hi Peter Way,

    Looking forward to the New Year's (initial) resolutions. Lets hope this year is like the last one.

    Meanwhile, is it possible to get an Excel CSV version of the BlockDesk pdf (jpg) file to which you refer in your article. I'd like to re-organize it slightly by symbol to see how in-and-out One-True-Way trading compares to just hanging on to some of these items.
    I actually made most of these trades, especially in the 2nd half of the year. Such fond memories... Chicago Bridge and Iron -- Who knew? I kind of regret having sold it, as per the Way. ESL is one I just kept. Seems to have worked out right thus far.

    I'm assuming the BlockDesk jpg file was originally done with Excel. In the Days Held column, are those market days, or calendar days?

    Regards,
    Smee
    Jan 9 11:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 ETFs That Can Beat SPY 4x Over, At Same Risk Ratio, Better Odds [View article]
    Correction: TQQQ is not something to hang on to if things are NOT working out...

    Regards
    Smee
    Nov 16 06:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 ETFs That Can Beat SPY 4x Over, At Same Risk Ratio, Better Odds [View article]
    Very Clever! --- to have sustained the Fight metaphor through the whole article.

    Here's a question, bearing in mind earlier discussions about the nature of risk -- (e.g. something (a market) might be riskier at a new high than during more normal times...)

    Suppose you asked the magic database: What are the win-lose ratios in those similar RI episodes when SPY was in New High territory? Other than the number of observations being smaller, would the win-lose ratios be materially different?

    Does it make sense to ask the question this way?

    It's hard not to be nervous here at this hither-to unexplored altitude, especially with things like TQQQ. TQQQ and similar items are definitely not something to hang on to for 3 to 6 months if things are working out.
    Nov 16 04:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech Investments? Get A Second Opinion [View article]
    Except for the more-that-3-years-data qualification, SNTS would have been Nr1 or 2 in the the above list, which I find very impressive! It helps that I actually had a real position in this one -- not my usual nickle slot-machine bet.

    In the big spill yesterday, there were 2 real clunkers that ended up on the day: IRM and TDC. Makes you wonder if maybe they have been punished enough.

    Congratulations on the preliminary report card! I look forward to the article.

    Regards,
    Smee
    Nov 8 06:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech Investments? Get A Second Opinion [View article]
    You have to admit, this 'follow the Smart Money' approach to biotech investing sure beats throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal.

    Given the recent action in biotech stocks, there is maybe cause to wonder if we really are going to live forever.

    But we should take a moment to appreciate the position of SNTS in the above list... especially since it opened up 30% this morning on a buy out offer.

    Regards
    Smee
    Nov 8 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Info Networks Gains: Forecasts At Twice The Market Proxy, By Market-Makers [View article]
    Thanks very much. The above answers my question -- the same question I always seem to have -- namely, where does the current recommendation (LNKD) rank in terms of the day's best recommendations.

    It's great that it rates well among its social networking quasi-peers, and it's great what that it rates well against the average. But what really matters is how does it rate against the other 'Bests'.

    Sounds like it rates pretty high, which is reassuring. Besides we have to find something to do with Flying Buffolos (BWLD). And since a previous turn on the dance floor with LNKD worked out well, it might be time to try it again.

    Regards,
    Smee
    Nov 5 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Cubes' (QQQ) Now The ETF Best Buy [View article]
    Question (similar to the above) --

    If QQQ is forcast to be good, why wouldn't TQQQ be somewhere between 2 and 3 times better. After all, regardless of what Market Makers may think about order flow and other such particularities, if QQQ goes up, TQQQ is going to go up too, and then some.

    Same thing could be said for EWY and KORU (triple long Korea). Only this would take considerably more intestinal fortitude, given the low volume and such.

    Smee

    Smee
    Oct 31 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fresh 'Best Buy' Candidates, Top 1% Of 2600 Stocks And ETFs [View article]
    "More Pork Sausages, Mom!"

    Does anyone besides me remember this TV ad from the -- when? -- 60's? 50's?

    What brings it to mind is the combination of me hollering for another fix, and the answer coming back: HRL Hormel Foods. That... plus the fact that I had a birthday not long ago, and got six (6!) cans of Spam, one of which I am eating right now. So of course I placed my bet on Hormel.

    I'd like to thank Peter Way for the recommendations. We wait, watch, and salivate.

    And one of those recommendations has already popped. Who knew that Buffalos had wings? Must be some new North Dakota discovery.

    But I have a question about the rules. Do you require that a stock close at or above its target price? Or does it need only to hit the target inter-day? I have in mind here DLB, recommended on 9/13/13. On Wednesday it blasted way past its target price, only to fall back significantly below the target by the end of the day.

    Is that considered a hit, or should one wait for a closing price at or above the target?

    Thanks
    Smee
    Oct 31 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Al Michaels & Chris Collinsworth: Market Forecasters? [View article]
    Hello Peter Way

    (and anyone else who might be able to shed some light on some (rather basic) questions) --

    Is big-block trading considered part of normal trading that results in bid-ask-last prices that we all can see? Or is big-block trading something separate -- running in parallel with the normal market. If big block trading runs outside normal market channels, is there a separate 'big-block tape'? Are there trade reporting requirements? How does big block trade information get folded into the conventional tape?

    Are the prices for big-block trades significantly different from the roughly simultaneous regular trades? Do big-block trades exert some kind of gravitational pull on the conventional market?

    Also, if an institution had a large quantity of an ETF that it wanted to dispose of (or acquire), why would it (the institution) subject itself to the Market-Makers' spreads and other expenses? Why couldn't the institution just avail itself of the ETF share creation (and retirement) process, and just skip the Big Block market?

    Now, about the actual, day-by-day one-true-Way, and the Portfolio of the Many Small Bites...

    Is anyone (besides Peter Way) making an effort to track the recommendations? I try to log as many as I can (until I run out of patience typing numbers into spreadsheets). But I really pay attention the items I actually bet on. And the results are remarkable.

    Of Six REITS 8/22/13, 5 have hit their targets (as advertised). Number Six (FRT) is making progress. Watching the show in terms of Range Index, FRT started with 2. Price now is 78% of the target price.

    Of 8 Biotech stocks 9/3/13, 5 have reached their advertised targets. On the Range Index scale, BIIB has progressed from 10 to 85. VRTX and MDVN are both in the black, but they have a ways to go.

    There are 27 various other items that I've bet at various times since 8/3/13. Of these, 10 have hit their targets. Another 5 are making good progress. 4 are modestly in the red -- except TDC, which was down 30% at one point. That's not modest.

    But here's a sobering thought: For most of these, one could have done significantly better by just hanging on to stocks that hit their targets. In the case of clusters of industry-related stocks, e.g.. the REITS and the Biotech stocks, just holding an (industry) index ETF to date would do at least as well and probably better than selling stocks the reach their targets as per the One True Way.

    For the One True Way to compete, there has to be the rapid replication of many small gains -- bunts; singles; doubles to make up for there never being any home runs. And as it stands, we don't have replacement recommendations for the items that get sold.

    So my suggestion is that it might be time for another "Top 30." This would be a particularly good time because things will get more challenging as the market approaches new highs. This will not be a case of 'buying on the dip.' For those who anticipate staying fully invested in the revolving Portfolio of the Many Small Bites, this might be a good experience. We'll see what happens.

    This has been longer than necessary, but I have one final question: On the blue and white Range Index graphs, what is it that causes a price/forecast to turn Green? What causes it to turn Orange?

    Thanks
    Smee

    PS -- UDOW's red-haired cousin SVXY did as expected. Seems that if UDOW is good, SVXY will be GREAT! Maybe we should send the Tea Party a Thank You note.
    Oct 24 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Robotics And Automation: The New ETF And Where To Invest [View article]
    Right link to the Folio 'Ready to Go' list

    http://bit.ly/HkaRzd
    Oct 24 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Robotics And Automation: The New ETF And Where To Invest [View article]
    Hello Igor,

    Allow me to direct your attention to FolioFn http://www.foliofn.com
    FolioFN is an innovative brokerage that allows you to run baskets of stocks and 'synthetic (home-made) ETFs'. Fees are very low -- $300/year for virtually unlimited 'basket-investing.'

    There is also an interesting list of over 100 ready-to-go baskets, with performance figures attached. http://bit.ly/1amfsMu

    Why this Infomercial? I'm just a happy customer. I think you would find the site useful.

    Regards
    Za Durga!

    Smee
    Oct 24 06:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - The Stock You Love To Hate Continues To Produce 80%+ Rates Of Return [View article]
    Here's what I'd like to know about AMZN: where does it stand in a listing of, say, the top 10 prospects today as seen by odds of success, payoff, drawdown, etc etc.

    In other words, is there some particular reason we should be focusing on AMZN, given the array of other (maybe better) investment prospects? How does it compare, for example, to SVXY?

    Regards,
    Smee
    Oct 12 12:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Levered Long ETFs = Big Gains - For Some, Not Others [View article]
    Seems a little counter-intuitive at the moment, but if things are looking up for UDOW, can SVXY be far behind?
    Oct 7 07:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iron Mountain: Market-Makers Bet On Its Secure, Big, Next 3-Month Price Gains [View article]
    Thanks for the thoughtful reply.
    Henceforth we'll treat each recommendation as an independent, free-standing entity, without reference whatever else may develop in succeeding weeks. The idea of diversification in time(s) of commitment and scaling in and out of positions in small bites makes a lot of sense.

    The FolioFN (http://www.foliofn.com) way of doing this is to create another basket for names that come on the active list more than once.

    If I were you, I might be wondering: is answering questions really a good idea? 'It only seems to encourage them.'

    Earlier in the summer (when the overall market was in a swoon) you presented lists that had twenty or thirty names. Lately, (in the time of new index highs), the lists are a lot shorter. Any significance here, maybe indicating that there just aren't that many enticing propositions here at this altitude?

    Regards,
    Smee
    Sep 27 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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