Lsente

Are S&P 500 Growth Projections Realistic?

This whole thesis is predicated upon M&A behavior. The currency of choice to facilitate the acquisitions is primarily stock. This arb behavior seems to be left out of the discussion. The quality of the premium is what I would like to call into question.

The only thing I know for sure is that risk is cheap, Vega is cheap, and VXX is cheap. Unless corrections are not part of the new normal?

Stock Prices and Unemployment Peaks

Love ya MadHedge,

Now Cam just needs to start slamming CNBS and all the charlatans trying to convince a shaky and unsure public that the kool-aid is refreshing and delicious.

www.theonion.com/conte...

on time and actionable, Big Dap knows handjobs!

Property Values Set to Fall 43% from Current Depressed Levels

I pay credence to your article but think that USD is no longer a linear variable. I still appreciate your article and it conjured a memory of a chart I could not get out of my head.

whiskeyandgunpowder.co.../

Third chart down, you'll find it in numerous places and I do not know who should get credit for it, but definitely a buttress to your thesis. I hope we are both wrong but I will be behaving as though we are both right.

Thanks for your submission

Cramer Does It Again with CIT Call

your name is ANTI-FOOL. You my friend have achieved ironic nirvana.

On Nov 02 12:33 PM Anti-Fool wrote:

> Wow...what a bunch of "haters." Smells like jealousy with a little
> envy mixed in. If you hate the guy so much...don't watch him!

Sold SPY Calls and Sitting on a Mountain of Cash

Either Index Neutral Funds have stopped trading VWAP, or something is manipulating this market. Mechanism being used is a point of contention, but source is what Mark is highlighting here. This is not mutual, pension flows.

Oh well, back to Kudlow Report, I am glad they found a home for Beaker.


On Oct 12 06:56 PM logicalthought wrote:

> >>...I think the government has their hands in this market...<<<b...
>
> I'm not sure what you mean by that, other than in the indirect sense
> that they've created a bunch of cash which-- instead of being loaned
> to businesses no longer profitable enough to pay it back-- may now
> be chasing stocks (as well as having devalued the dollar enough to
> cause foreign buyers to chase them). If the government could truly
> "control" the market, we never would've seen the 600s in March. This
> (decreasing volume rally) too shall pass.

The Great Shift: China Rising, U.S. Falling

It is a zero sum game barring some new market efficiencies. Only automobile/microprocessor innovation can generate a higher standard of living on balance.


On Oct 08 06:55 PM zhliu wrote:

> Can't the living standard of China and US rising together, it is
> not a zero sum game.

The Great Shift: China Rising, U.S. Falling

Two points that I would love to add to your article.
1. The Chinese wonder is in it's infancy and has yet to be derailed. This initial "shock" might do a bit more damage without pieces that move. This rigidity is inherent in planned economies and this is probably the biggest risk looming on the horizon.
2. The rise/fall thesis is predicated on the allocation of resources globally. Any disruption to the allocation system and it's underpinnings (read credit markets and participants) can create long-term dislocations. The ability to create these disruptions could easily push out the inevitable equilibrium that you are not properly discounting.

Great article

Gold Rises, the Dollar Falls: Is This Really a Good Thing?

The slow descent of the dollar is an amazing feat. Despite record auctions and the promise of policies that will ensure future record auctions, we are still 5 handles up on the DXY from the low. Crazy stripper/midget action isn't this entertaining.

I posit the opposite, that this course has proven the might of the dollar. I would assume that some balance between input costs/crude, and competitive exports is the only way back to prosperity (fuck me running, I sound like Kudblow). It would be a sliding scale based upon global capacity utilization. This outlook has kept me on a pretty solid path, and there is a paved road of kittens and puppies down to DXY 71. Down there all bets are off, something fast and furious will happen down there.

It's been fun so far...

Get Your Cheap Gold Coins Here

RBA raised 25bps

A Different Take on September's Employment Numbers

You just (inadvertently) confirmed how absolutely abysmal that jobs report was.

I would also like to point out to those critical of the approach taken in this article; I think Mr. McTeer's blog does not service the finance community. So save your critiques for the strippers at scores and CNBC analysts. Harbor a guess why these two are correlated.


(all about big fat tits)

Get Ready for $35 Billion More in Handouts

The clip is f*cking priceless. I thought I was watching CSPAM...

'Clunkers' Spending Siphons Savings

C4C hangover aside, the true pulse of this article was the end of this credit cycle. Inflation/deflation, the argument is an extension of the beginning of a new secular shift in consumer spending.

Metals, Euros, equities, commodities are all looking important right now (recovery paradigm the Fed has mentioned previously). For any one to claim importance over the other, so early in the cycle shift is pretty ignorant and one of my issues in the comment streams.

If LIQUIDITY/risk averesion become important, we'll see a momentary shift into USD and this ebb/flow will probably be part of this transition process. So for the love of any deity of your choosing, stay nimble and use this cheap risk environment to your advantage.

PIMCO Warns of Coming Deflation

And he has a buttload of AUM


On Sep 30 01:58 PM Stephanie Sammons wrote:

> Bill Gross's comments may be self-serving in some ways, but he's
> got significant influence with financial advisors (who manage wealth),
> and you could argue that he's got influence with the government.
> I think if he makes a call you'll see money flow in that direction,
> self-serving or not.

A depressing report suggests that even if adding two million jobs a year, it will take seven years to restore employment to pre-recession levels.

Jobless recovery in '91 was 36 months, '01 was 55 months (both approximations) before achieving pre-crash levels with respect to jobs.
Higher highs baby

The FDIC Just Doesn't Get the Economic Situation

Curious what kind of discount will be applied to this pulled forward payment. Will the FDIC discount these payments at current rates or will the banks get some kind of premium...

-I am guessing a premium higher than what the fed is paying for banks to sit on reserves. Yet another fleecing, brilliant really; to the average American it seems somewhat sacrificial by the banks. "What else could they do?"

So when the FDIC taps the treasury, which they will. Along the way they gave the banks a great XMradioesque haircut on their DIF premiums.

Maybe this conjecture is way off, but until proven otherwise, one must consider this deal is to the detriment of the US taxpayer.

Keeping my TGT's short