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Why Everyone Is Wrong About the Inflation/Deflation Debate

You can not look to the price of gold or oil to indicate anything about inflation or deflation or the economy. Everyone from large investors such as endowments and pension funds to the average Joe buying ETFs online have gotten into the commodities game. That makes the price of these assets realitive to nothing but the whim and fancy of investors. Gasoline Station sales were down 6.5% from August to September and the price of oil went up... It is what is... and it ain't demand.
Printing money means NOTHING if it is not being spent. Take a look at the velocity of money and see for yourself that the massive amount of money being printed is sitting in banks to prop up their balance sheet.
The Fed is going to do everything in their power to keep the wealthy wealthy. It is our turn to take control. Stop spending every penny you don't have to. We can crush the rich with asset devaluation.

The U.S's Permanent Depression

Love the post, hate the comments... Why does everyone blame the rich? The rest of us (I am not wealthy by any standard) seem to line up to give their money to the rich. Who in their right mind took out a mortgage with a reset they could not afford? Who in their right mind runs up tons of consumer debt? Who in their right mind does not save a few bucks for a rainy day? That's right- the average American. Remember, if the middle class simply made the payments they agreed to, their would not have been a crisis. Who do you blame- the man who makes the gun or the man that shoots someone with it? The average American gets what they deserve. Don't blame the bankers. Blame the morons that borrowed the money and then could not pay it back.

Investors Fled out of Leveraged ETFs at Exactly the Wrong Time

The drive to regulate leveraged ETFs is all about the short funds not the long funds. The Gov is trying deparately to control the market. They do want to see a repeat of last winter/spring of 08 market declines. The Gov has done EVERYTHING within it's grasp to get control of the market. This rally has been a complete farce and now the Gov wants to curtail short selling to keep the market from tanking too fast. Leveraged ETFs are fine, never been marketed to the average investor. This is bunch of crap brought to you by the Gov.

Case-Shiller's Recent Strength: It's Not Just Seasonality

If it smells like poop and steams like poop it must a pile and that is what this article is... a big pile of poop. Just don't step in it. Residental housing sucks and will suck for probably another 10 years. The Gov is paying people $8k to buy a house and still sales fell in August. A month over month price national price increase is NOTHING but the slight uptick in the sale of low priced properties. These are a much smaller part of the pie that all residental mortages represent than the mid and jumbo market does. This is market is getting crushed now and will in turn crush the banks in the next year. Less people working, those that are working are making less, and the money they are making the are saving and NOT spending, while avoiding debt at all costs... Yeah I see a housing boom right around the corner. Get ready, the fat lady ain't sung yet....

S&P / Case-Shiller Home Price Numbers

You are not taking into account the shadow inventory being held by the banks, both foreclosed properties not on the market and those left in default but not foreclosed. In addition you are not considering the continued decline of the job market which will lead to additional foreclosures. Lastly, the "increase" is month over month. It is almost meaningless that prices have increased in the height of the buying season with a $8K tax credit in place.

Buffett's Latest NYT Op-Ed: The Greenback Effect

Blah Blah Blah... Tell Warren to cram it. Sure he tells America to buy equities- HE IS TALKING HIS BOOK! WB is probably the greatest stock picker of all time, in the past he has always refrained from offering opinon on the economy. He should go back to that line of thought. THERE WILL BE NO INFLATION UNTIL THE VELOCITY OF MONEY INCREASES DRAMTICALLY... That is a long, long, long way off in the future. America is in a deflationary sprial. Are you paying more or less for a car, a house, milk or gasoline as compared to last year? Are you making more or less that last year? (That is assuming you are still working).
LESS PEOPLE ARE WORKING, THOSE THAT ARE WORKING ARE MAKING LESS MONEY AND THE MONEY THEY ARE EARNING THEY ARE USING TO PAY OFF DEBT OR FOR SAVINGS. How does this add up to inflation of prices? Warren know this but does not want to admit to you and me.
DEFLATIONARY DEBT DESTRUCTION!
"those city jobs are gonna fast and they ain't comming back"

Upscale vs. Downscale: Luxury Retailers Dramatically Outperforming Wal-Mart

Are you kidding? I want some of what you are on... Hermes ain't a pimple on the buttocks of Walmart. OK they had a nice quarter, whoppe dooo for them... Are you betting on Luxury Retailers?
If you are, what percentage of your total portfolio is that sector?

Retail Data Fails to Inspire

TinyTim- The unemployment numbers DO add up to the drop in retail sales. Even though the unemployeed are still buying necessities the drop is indicative of the over spending that was going on pre-crisis... Don't forget everyone was leveraging their persons and their homes to the hilt. Now that people are not working and those that are working are in fear of losing their jobs spending is in the crapper. As the Great Deflation reaks it's havoc of lower wages and thereby lower prices the retial sector will suffer. Which way to turn? Remember the 3 D's Deflationary Debt Destruction- then what? Short American equities, Go long emerging markets- bonds, Look for fixed income deals NOT IN THE FINANCIALS!!!

Closing Update for Wednesday, August 12: The Fed's Relative Optimism Is Catching

Really Ben? Come on! Retail Sales DOWN! (Even with the Gov paying people to buy cars! This means it slowed that much more in other categories) Unemployment UP! (like that is any surprise) Foreclosures UP! (what did you expect?) Home Prices DOWN! (That sure sounds like good news) Stop the BS, the economy is still declining. Remember- Deflationary Debt Destruction... Until the excess debt is discharged there will be recovery. Ignore this at your own risk...

Cramer's Mad Money - Paul Krugman Is Wrong (8/10/09)

Kramer is part of the US Gov attempt to reinflate the economy. All mainstream media is screaming recovery at every opportunity. Nothing has changed in the last 4 months other than the market is up. Unless you bought low and are now selling high that means nothing other than the confidence it inspires. The residental housing market is still mired in deep trouble. There is a shadow inventory the banks are not putting on the market to keep prices up. As unemployment worsens the number of foreclosures is bound to rise. Supply increases, demand falls so more loans go bad, the banks can not or will not lend and even more banks fail. The economy is caught in a cycle of deflation and rightly so after the last decade of cheap money inflation. As the US consumer sits on the sidelines scared or simply out of money/credit the economy stays depressed. Some stocks will make money, I happen to like Wendys as I believe fast food will be a winner as more Americans trade down to save money. But do not make the mistake that we are past the problems.

Peak Oil for Dummies

Why would OPEC fudge reserve #s to the bad? It makes no sense.. OPEC wants the price of Oil to go UP. Despite what they tell the media I am sure they would rather pump Oil at 120 a barrel vs 60. For decades the Peak Oil People have been chanting the demise of oil and yet we still have more than enough. Sounds like all the gold bugs... There must be something wrong with your brain that you can ignore the reality that we have more than enough sources of energy. In fact the USA has abundant oil off the east coast but can not drill for it. There will be no peak oil. The world is not going to end. Wake up....

Are Stocks Way Overbought?

Do you really need a number to let you know that this market is overbought? I call bull&()*!

Recession Is Over: Long Live Depression

Often I don't agree with Mr. Schiff but this piece is on the money. The cash for clunkers program is a bunch of hooey... my tax dollars helping some moron buy a new car so he can increase his debt. Nice... At least I have my assult rifle..

Six Signs Economy Is Turning the Corner

Every time the market goes up some moron comes up with a list of reasons that all is well. Let me respond with the 3 reasons the economy will continue to suck- Retail sales are down over 10% for June compared to 2008- 70% of the GDP is consumer driven this is distressing to say the least, unemployment is still rising along with wages that continue to fall- can you say deflation? Home prices continue to fall and the shadow inventory of homes assures that will continue for another year or more- More foreclosures are the ticket to economic recovery, right? Does any of this sound good?

Economy Watch: We're In an Inflationary Recession That May Start to Accelerate

Are you paying more for a house than you were a few years ago? Don't be a fool- as long as home prices fall we will have DEFLATION. It may take some time to work through to other items but it will. We have every sign of classic deflation- increasing unemployment, falling wages, increased personal savings, falling residental and commercial real estate, increasing bond failures, tax revenue shortfalls... How does LESS PEOPLE WORKING, MAKING LESS MONEY AND SAVING MORE