dj10

How Deep Will the Market Pullback Be? Sentiment Holds the Key

Strong positive sentiment is never a contrarian indicator when bullish investors continue to put money to work.

The July drop in sentiment was likely augmented by the post traumaticstress so many are suffering after the market meltdowns of the last year.

The Fallacy of 'Money on the Sidelines'

Re: The $2.3 trillion gap between the listed market gain and the drop in MM funds, you don't need one dollar in for each dollar rise in gross market cap.

Cash for Clunkers May Cost Up to $45,354 Per Vehicle

Cal Worthington is now Colonel Clunk


On Jul 31 03:20 PM Big Bubbette wrote:

> This is BS. First we bail out the unions, GM and Chrysler. Now we
> are supplementing the purchase of vehicles, which likely will help
> out the Japanese auto makers. Meanwhile, we are borrowing more money
> to fund this program. So we keep borrowing money and buying cars
> and this is a good business model? More debt being piled on the backs
> of taxpayers. Enough already. I do not want to help my neighbors
> buy a car.
>
> Can anyone confirm that Cal Worthington has been named the new Clunker
> Czar?

Market Rally: Secular Bull or Cyclical?

You should broaden the investigation and look at absolute returns,
rather than returns relative to the 200 dma. Also, the context would be interesting, such as the direction of the 200 dma when the index experienced a -10% thrust from the average. And was the time interval between the two 10% occurences meaningfully different in the two groups, the 18 and the 3?

V Bottoms and the Twin-Peaked Bear

Here's one that shows absolute numbers of debt, and the percentage of debt to GDP. It had been as high as 120% of GDP in 1945.

Here's a link to the proposed budget. Much of the deficit results from tax reduction (tax receipts equal to 15.4% of GDP, historical low)

www.whitehouse.gov/omb...

Here's one that shows tax receipts and spending:

www.docstoc.com/docs/2...,

Deficit as a percentage of GDP hit a high of 30% in 1943, but was 23 and 27% in the other was years. The debt load didn't present an insurmountable burden to the Post War economy.

On Mar 15 08:46 AM Allan Frain wrote:

> Got any historical graphs showing economic recovery in the face of
> a Federal deficit that is 12.5% of GDP ?

Jeremy Siegel's Silly P/E

Siegel is correct. The current calculation of the S&P 500 PE is not a true PE, in that it does not represent actual earnings per share for the group of 500. Take the 40 per share and compare it to the SP 500 without market cap weighting.

However, for historical purposes, Siegel's argument does not help much. Changing the calculus will give us apples to oranges. Also, as these companies shrink drastically in market cap (C, BAC, etc), thier impact on the SP500 average likewise diminishes.

So in conclusion, if you look like Larry Fine, but you teach in the Ivy League, you can get published in the WSJ (but I doubt it helps pick up B girls)

No Wonder the $700 Billion Bailout 'Deal' Failed

No problem, gwnc7e. With his math skills, I'm sure WakeUpAmerica can land a management position at AIG, or a large bank.