PharmBoy

YAO: A Whole New China ETF

terrific article, thanks for the recap.

MGM Writedown Puts Gaming ETF in Focus

Instead of gambling on this ETF, I'd rather take my money directly to the casino. I could lose either way, but the latter at least has some entertainment value.

Bond ETFs: Winds of Change Begin to Swirl

I've been long TBT for a couple of weeks. A little early but this is one leveraged ETF that is actually worth holding onto for the intermediate term without fear of being crushed (ala SKF)...this is going to 50 in a hurry, long treasuries doesn't seem to be the trade going forward.

Microsoft Squashes Rumors of EA Bid

still a takeover candidate someday, still a buy at these levels, imho

Ten Reasons for an Imminent Stock Market Crash

Summary of 2009 so far: the shorts have been crushed. Don't fight the tape. In pure dollars and cents, being right too early is the same as being wrong. But I do like your thoughts sir. Long commodity stocks with operations overseas and high gearing to a global recovery (ex-US?) in Q3 2010.

VIX ETN: Ineffective as Both Short-Term, Long-Term Play

Is this rolling of futures contracts the same reason why UNG (recently) and USO (last year) do/did a lousy job of keeping up with the improved pricing of their respective commodities they track?

Market Outlook: Bill Gross Has It Exactly Right

I'm currently long TBT and down 5.5% from my entry at 46.50. Was I too early on this trade? Should I cut my losses and re-enter when the longer-term picture is clearer or stick to the trade for the next 3-6 months? Thanks.

Research In Motion: A Smart Call, Long Term

RIMM is a screaming buy here. When a premium product at the store goes on sale, do you turn your noses up at the marked-down price? On the contrary. Most rational people would back up the shopping cart. If your investing horizon is limited to the short-term, RIMM is quite possibly not the best smartphone candidate out there (hats off to AAPL on that one), but if you think that this arena has huge potential and are willing to look out several years, one will be able to look back and see what an opportunity it was to establish a partial position in this stock. Buy yourself some deep, long-dated ITM puts in case the thesis doesn't pan out. But to think that RIMM won't be higher by at least two dozen points 12-24 months out from now, that would be flat out boinkers.

DryShips: Poised to Rally

Mark, my average price being what it is, is due to me buying 100 shares to start, then only 50 at each of the lower price levels. I didn't buy equal position sizes each time. That being said, hindsight is 20-20. Who could have known that DRYS would storm back so hard, so fast. They say not to average down on your losers, so I kind of took the middle ground. Buy some more, but don't bet the house on it. That being said, if you were smart enough to back up on the truck at 3 and change, nice one!!




On Jan 06 02:41 AM Mark Anthony wrote:

> PharmBoy:
>
> I don't understand! Based on your description where you entered DRYS
> you should not have an average DRYS price as high as $25. Actually
> you should be makign money by now. You first bought at $70, and then
> at $14, and then at $5. Suppose you spend $10K at each price level,
> you would have bought 143 + 714 + 2000 = 2857 shares for a total
> cost of $30K, or average cost of $10.50, and you should have a comfortable
> 32% profit at today's close price of $13.85.
>
> Your investment strategy must have a problem. You should view the
> lower price as a big buying opportuity, not as opportunity to lose
> money. When DRYS was at $3.05, you had an opportunity to buy way
> much more shares that you could have bought when it was at $116 a
> share.
>

Shorting to Take Advantage of Overbought Market

I bought FAZ twice already and it just keeps sliding...can't decide if it's worth averaging down for when the rally eventually (?) comes to an end.

How Will Fortune Magazine's 10 Stock Picks for 2009 Fare?

How do you spell love? P-O-T. I bought it 10% under the peak, sold multiple contracts (OTM calls) against it all the way down and used the premiums to pick up more shares at 50 bucks, the steal of the year. This rally is just the beginning of some serious Elliott Wave action. And thanks to the buyer of 3 of my POT April 130 calls today for 4 bones apiece, that'll help with the bills!

The Pitfalls of Using Inverse ETFs

I wish I had read this article *before* buying FAZ. On the plus side, stochastics are heavily oversold, RSI just crossed over from oversold conditions, it looks like a triple bottom has formed, and banks have more bad news to report. So what's the dilly yo? Any chance of this stock seeing the 80's and 90's again? I'm tempted to hedge with buying some BAC or JPM calls (probably 2011 LEAPs).

DryShips: Poised to Rally

I bought DRYS when it retraced to the mid 70's and thought I was getting a good deal at the time! I then doubled my holdings by purchasing more at $14 and finally $5. My average price is now around $25/share (excluding Aug and Oct dividend payments of 20 cents/share).

At today's price, I don't want to lock in a loss by selling ATM calls for $2 and OTM calls for mere pennies and then have the shares called away later this month. Additionally, there doesn't appear to be any substantial overhead resistance until around the $25 mark (Sean, you called it at $18...?), which appears to be marked by a double top on Oct 13th and 20th, and a weaker 3rd peak on Nov 4th which begat the slide to 3-ish.

On the other hand, they say you should sell into strength, and this rally has had legs for over a month now (though this leg's volume is markedly lower than the first leg's, not to mention a severely overbought scenario on the RSI). My dilemma boils down to this (with a nod to Kenny Rogers): should I hold 'em or fold 'em? Any comments welcome.