22percent

Is Financial History Bunk?

Amen brother!

Just think how much meteorological data we have collected over the last 100 years, but still we can't predict the weather 5 days out with any real accuracy. Yet, from just one single set of inputs for global economic history resulting in one unique historical output, we're suppose to be able to determine that the likely length of a market trough!

I would encourage the doubters to read Taleb.