housam Jarrar

Why Aren't We Undergoing Another Great Depression?

It is amazing that a well read and reputable author as krugman would totally dismiss two very important factors in his misguided agrument .First,the big assumption that governments can control economies via producing inflation which oddly enough has never been proven,especially after a credit bubble(no examples of such a scenario can be located in any counties history..period).Secon... the governments lack of action during the great depression was unfortunate,it allowed the economy to reset.those who should have been allowed to go bankrupt were allowed to fail and debt was mostly defaulted,which allowed the economy to be revived when a stimulus plan was introduced.fast forward to today and what we see is a government that is trying to pull an elephant out of a hat,without solving what got us here in the first place.

NY Fed Model: No Chance of Recession in 2010

I definitely agree with most people posting here that the predictive powers is definitely questionable at best and flat out wrong at worst.One more thing which no one has mentioned so far is the fact that even if this tool was proven to be accurate in its predictive powers,no one seems to mention the fact that the feds have been buying treasuries to artificially lower rates in hopes of allowing for a recovery(I doubt) and how such actions can and will skewer any validity to a tool that uses treasury spreads as an indicator.

S&P 500 Near Overbought Levels

I that this market has been surrounded by skeptics ever since this rally began,which from a contrarian point of view is healthy.I believe that so much bad news has been priced into stocks that the only way they will go is up.Whether its a bear market rally or not,I have come to believe as a trader that the first mistake you can make is trying to fight a trend.Whether its from the bottom callers or the top callers makes no difference.The only fact that matters to me is that there are stocks out there and people are buying them.People as recent as the end of march claimed the rally will be over when the end of the quarter buying subsides,which did not happen..so claiming that something else might is just as foolish.

Bank Nationalization: It's Just Plain Wrong

I am puzzled by your rationalization simply because you are basing your opinion on assumptions of what would have happened if the government extended guarentee's ,liquidity and deposit insurance to banks in the RTC era.However,you are completely ignoring the fact that all you suggest was in-fact implemented by japan in the 90's to no avail.The thought that continuing injection of capitol into banks will eventually work itself out did not happen.The fact of the matter is that no one knows what these institutions have on their balance and off balance sheets which is a ticking time bomb and so what the banks are facing is not a bank run due to liquidity but a run due to insolvency.What you propose is allowing the people who made the mess to correct it and I do not see ay reason to give them the benefit of the doubt.nationalization is going to be painful but at least we will know just how deep the hole is and maybe with a little luck restore the ever distant trust into our banks which is clearly and forever changed.

Solving the Bank Crisis: More TARPs Are Not the Answer

I agree with everything you said.However,I was not sure about your point regarding paying the shareholders for their shares.The banks made risky bets and shareholders reaped the benefits for many years,therefore they should be entitled to no more than 0$.

Was Q4 2008 the Worst of It?

I do agree with allot of what this article had to say,however,I believe we are far far away from a recovery any time soon.Aside from the obvious alt-A and option arms that will reset in 2009, which will lead to another round of banks tightening their belts(not lending) and raising additional capitol for the lost values on their balance sheets.The banks will have to deal with a much bigger and frightening realitiy of the commercial real estate debacle which will lead to even more write downs and further losses.There is allot of bad news that is not baked into the markets cake and I think that 2009 will in one way or another dwarf what we saw unfold in 2008.But thats just my line of thinking.