Jonas

Options Update: LEN, PALM, MS, DRYS, ROH

Baltric dry went up +6% today, witch could make dryships to go as far as 18 or 19$ a piece. I still expect it to grow as far as 35 by the end of the month. I even sold my toyoto tm stock to buy extra today. TM is going to drop anyway, I had premarket warnings to arround 30$ this morning. Might have been a glitch because it was at one moment -56.36%

Toyota: Undeniably Cheap Despite Industry Slump

Stock will likely first go to 35$ and come back by the end of 2010 to 75. As they budgetted record sales for 2008 and where faced with declined sales of -15%, their spending was through the roof. With ratings down from AAA to AA, lending money is more expensive for them. If sales for january will also be low, concerns will rise and a step back will be necessary.
We will soon hear more bad news from them. Stock will stay in the green till friday as pension funds and live funds keep bying to fill their portfolios. After that, we will see decline in stock. Lets not forget that Toyota will never get help, and the help that is given to GM en Chrysler and Ford is actually working against them. These kind of articles are typical before stock is going down. I sold my stock yesterday as risk is to high.

DryShips: Poised to Rally

Baltic dry index is at an all time low, when it reaches 3000/4000 DRY will go to 40$/60$ and 90$ in 2010. I will sell at 60$ and buy financials long. I would not even be surprised to see a pop of +50% during the next few days.

Did New Car Sales Bottom in November?

Sales will be down. People are still scared of taking extra credit. Nevermind the low rates. More credit in a time when jobsecurity is low is just not done. Expectations about more incentives in march from the industry topping 3500 instead of the 800 now are high. The second hand market is performing much better, witch influences the new car market. The consumer can only bye one car at the time.

What's Driving Toyota Down?

Toyota also announced that their electric cars will only be ready for the market not earlier than 2016. Mitshubischi, GM en Ford will be faster with these introductions. Why? Because they have to. That is a better motivator than the motivator the people at Toyota have. They are still in the fase where they think it is temporarily.

What's Driving Toyota Down?

It's also good to look at the second hand market. Value for a second hand toyota drops 15% faster than ford or a GM model. As the current cars are now about 10% older than a year ago, people are seing the differences.

Baltic Dry Index Signaling a Market Bottom?

Drybulk is going up. All major companies had stock of raw materials for at least 6 months, witch they bought at a very high price. All these companies are liquidating their stocks and stopped buying raw materials. These stock are becoming depleted! Raw materials are going up like a rocket pretty soon! As raw materials are low, and the horizon is in sight, companies are beginning to place new orders, withc will max up within 1 or 2 months. If you have the possibilety to look into warehouses, you'll see a big difference with last summer.

PS: Armanda Shipping leased their ships, and had contracts running without demand. They did not have any ships of their own, and could not get credit without activa.

It's Likely That Auto Sales Have Bottomed

It is better to look at companies in general. It is them who buy a lot of the cars for their employees, and face the facts: investments like buying cars have stopped. Look at the transportation sector. In a normal year; 20% of all trucks are replaced by new ones. For 2009, they have placed fewer than 1% orders. Sames for the car industry. A car can drive 10 years and more. Companies can wait another year to replace the 4 year old ones and save money on expenses that are not needed.