Seeking Alpha

beach bum 2009

beach bum 2009
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The 'Own Your Own Home' Policy: A Relatively New Thing [View article]
    "Next to our intuitive thirst for greed, the difficulty of keeping perspective amidst the epically long and complex evolution of" your sentence structure is amazing. Take a grammar lesson!
    Oct 14, 2009. 10:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Risky Adventures in 'Riches Among The Ruins,' by Robert P. Smith [View article]
    Great review. Makes me wanna read it.
    Oct 3, 2009. 04:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ten Reasons for an Imminent Stock Market Crash [View article]
    Two questions for the author:
    1) How long have you been bearish?
    2) Are you calling this the top?
    Sep 30, 2009. 08:27 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economics and Its Discontents [View article]
    Dear Mr. Mad Hedge,
    You are posting the same comments on every article I read. Why??? Surely you have more to say than "cut" and "paste".
    Sep 14, 2009. 10:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Report: Innovators, Imitators and Idiots [View article]
    I wonder if things are a little backwards this time. The idiots (I think of myself as part of this crowd) got in first because we operate from emotion. Greed got me in early and kept me in while the "smart money" said this is a bear-market rally. Then I stayed in while the pros said it's going to be a double dip. Then I stayed in when the big guns said the market's way overbought. I'm still in and now the big money's starting to move in chasing performance. Maybe I'll get out when the "innovators" and "Imitators" declare this a bull market.
    Sep 14, 2009. 09:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • THE DEFLATION FEAR: WHAT IS IT REALLY?  [View instapost]
    Thanks for the reply. I dig your art as well.
    Sep 11, 2009. 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • THE DEFLATION FEAR: WHAT IS IT REALLY?  [View instapost]
    Great article. I've been thinking lately that the deflation in housing was a transfer of wealth from the rich to the poor, and you have really expanded on that for me. But it was also a transfer of wealth from the slow to the nimble as stock market went to hell (666) and back. This crash was the opportunity of a lifetime for those who sold early. A good reallocation on the way back up could have been fantastic. I was down 50% along with the market, but decided to get into commodities in early March. There was definitely a transfer of wealth to me. I sold my house near the top and have been renting ever since & will become a buyer again when I feel that we are near a bottom. I am fortunate and have had much with luck, but this is definitely the time for the nimble to rise.
    Sep 10, 2009. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Case-Shiller Home Price Gains Real? [View article]
    I think we're in the beginning of a multi-year drop in RE prices (inflation adjusted) If we see general deflation, look out below! Even If we have a robust economic recovery, we have the following head winds:
    1) Elimination of easy money in the mortgage market.
    2) Elimination of the idea of residential RE (single family homes) as an investment. Therefore less demand.
    3) Demographic headwinds from the boomer downsizing and retirement.
    4) Immigration? (This might shift to emerging markets)
    5) low employment
    6) Mortgage rests not yet peaked.
    In favor of increasing prices:
    1) Inflation???
    2) Low interest rates (for how long?)

    It doesn't look good from my perspective, unless you are a 1st time buyer who wants to stay put and is not interested in ROI of their home. There will be pops in price along the way, as we have already experienced, but the longer term looks a little cloudy. I'm curious if anybody can provide a convincingly rosier outlook...PLEASE!
    Aug 30, 2009. 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Speculative Trading Indicates Rally Losing Steam [View article]
    Very well said. Don't bet against the fed.


    On Aug 29 03:26 PM ari5000 wrote:

    > And that's the other thing bears don't get.
    >
    > A sudden surge of inflation may cause stock markets to blast off
    > -- a la Zimbabwe.
    >
    > There's a lot of things bears need to fear... even after the recent
    > rally off multi-year lows. It's very clear that government intervention
    > is at unprecedented levels -- so expect the impossible.
    >
    > I was just looking at my Motley Caps portfolio. I shorted AIG on
    > Aug. 14 -- I'm down 102% on that pick. I can only imagine what
    > it's like to be real-money short on AIG or C... And I know people
    > who went long AIG/C -- let me tell you, everyone who has the (no)
    > sense to be long those names is high as kite from the money they
    > are raking in. They approach every selloff now as an opportunity
    > to buy the dip and make another fast 10 grand. It's infectious as
    > all bubble markets are. But this is one of the first bubble markets
    > to get a stamp of approval from the Fed -- they created it! <br/>
    >
    > Being in cash is understandable... but being short can be catastrophic
    > when there's no limits to Wall Street's power over the Fed.
    Aug 29, 2009. 04:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Speculative Trading Indicates Rally Losing Steam [View article]
    Every investor is a gambler, don't be fooled by semantics. You place your bets whether they are based on fundamental analysis or a hot tip at the Tiki bar; whether they are held for years or milliseconds. Even Carl Icahn famously said after the market tanked that he lived one year too long. Why is he considered an investor and not a gambler? The two are in fact equal.

    Call me a gambler, call me a fool, call me lucky, it does not matter. I made some money this time around. The game's not over until I cash it all in.

    Check back with me in 20 years.

    On Aug 29 11:49 AM enigmaman wrote:

    > You said " If I lose it all, I have nobody to blame but myself and
    > not the anthropomorphic market."
    >
    > So your a gambler not an investor, then your paper gains are not
    > relevant or any indication of your prowess, its what you take home
    > thats signifies whether your a genius or fool, that your willing
    > to throw the dice and risk losing it all means your reckless, especially
    > saying that your willing to take more risks for more reward as the
    > laws of probability stack up against you
    Aug 29, 2009. 12:24 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Speculative Trading Indicates Rally Losing Steam [View article]
    Clearly, the return to "normal" from the pit of fear hid enormous opportunity. Pickings will be slimmer going forward. I expect never to see 100% gain in a mere 5 months on my portfolio again. But I will continue to take higher risks in search of higher rewards. If I lose it all, I have nobody to blame but myself and not the anthropomorphic market. Citigroup looks nice, especially while the MBA's all scoff at it. A 6% short interest helps too! Good luck to you ALL.


    On Aug 29 09:37 AM enigmaman wrote:

    > beach bum- you are the exception and not the rule, being able to
    > do what you did in the face of all the chaos and concern is text
    > book contrarian thinking, great you could do it, because the masses
    > could not. When the fire department is yelling fire and run for your
    > lives its wise to listen to them, doing the opposite is nonsensical,
    > except during certain crazy times in the market place. Now if you
    > are able to keep 80% of your gains I would really be impressed, all
    > you have to do is sell everything on Monday, will you or are you
    > willing to throw the dice a few more times. You looked into the blackness
    > of the abyss and saw opportunity and it worked, was it pure luck
    > or genius, now though your looking into brighter skies but the future
    > is murky and harder to read, what will you do?
    Aug 29, 2009. 10:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Speculative Trading Indicates Rally Losing Steam [View article]
    I'm up over 100% on my entire portfolio since the March lows. I'm way above where I was at the peak of the market. I am not a genius, but when the market tanked, I thought to myself that the opportunity of a lifetime was just around the corner, and I was subsequently proven right. Yes, there's a lot of risk, but there is also a LOT of money to be made. I would rather trade from my "bedroom" than from a cubicle suffering from "group think"


    On Aug 28 01:47 PM manya05 wrote:

    > Nothing surprising here...investors have fled this market a long
    > time ago. The market is now just a big casino dominated by day trades
    > (from the little guy trading from his bedroom, to the GS trading
    > desk). It is all day trading and gambling. Investment for the long
    > term is dead, there is very little money to be made there and tons
    > of risk.
    Aug 29, 2009. 08:54 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Speculative Trading Indicates Rally Losing Steam [View article]
    "Fundamental valuation analysis remains paramount for equity investors, so be sure not get sucked into highly speculative trading unless there is a strong, rational basis for such investments."

    Thanks for the text book advice, but I'll go with the momentum. I just want to make money. I don't care if it makes no sense to the MBA's.
    Aug 29, 2009. 08:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Lies Ahead for Hybrid Car Investors? [View article]
    First, PHEV stands for plug-in hybrid electric. Meaning there's also a gas engine.
    Second, even all electric vehicles polute unless you recharge them via solar, wind or other alternative electric source and not coal.
    Third, when all electric vehicles run out of battery, you are stuck. which is why PHEV's are great. They have a gas engine to take you where you want once the battery dies. They are an improvement over plain old hybrids because when you plug them in to charge them, you can do all of your short range driving without gas (and let's hope without coal).
    Jun 28, 2009. 08:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
14 Comments
39 Likes