Storm Cat's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/332723/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/172743-saudi-oil-pricing-paradigm-shift-wti-index-out-asci-index-in?source=feed#comment-755426 755426
"Does anyone bother to look at current consumption of oil by the United States? 25% of total crude consumption daily at 86.14/mlb/d is about 21mlb/d. Our (U.S.) current consumption of oil is between 13-14 mbl/d. That equates to approx.14-16% of world oil consumption. Even in 2008 average consumption of oil was about 14-15 mbl/d."

... and your point is?]]> Wed, 11 Nov 2009 11:31:15 -0500
"Does anyone bother to look at current consumption of oil by the United States? 25% of total crude consumption daily at 86.14/mlb/d is about 21mlb/d. Our (U.S.) current consumption of oil is between 13-14 mbl/d. That equates to approx.14-16% of world oil consumption. Even in 2008 average consumption of oil was about 14-15 mbl/d."

... and your point is?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172743-saudi-oil-pricing-paradigm-shift-wti-index-out-asci-index-in?source=feed#comment-755349 755349
I feel they are tired of having so much USD exposure in an environment where US economic policy supports/causes the dollar to significantly debase.]]> Wed, 11 Nov 2009 10:47:21 -0500
I feel they are tired of having so much USD exposure in an environment where US economic policy supports/causes the dollar to significantly debase.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168109-barnes-and-noble-s-nook-may-not-ring-death-knell-for-amazon-s-kindle?source=feed#comment-725213 725213
I travel a lot for work and own a kindle. It is functional but has many shortcomings (eg, no backlight, poor wireless reception, slow, pricey). As soon as a better alternative comes out I will stop using the kindle. I will look closely at the nook but probably wait for Apple's response.

Sorry guys, you are incorrect here. Kindle is functional but severely lacking for the price. ]]> Thu, 22 Oct 2009 10:54:08 -0400
I travel a lot for work and own a kindle. It is functional but has many shortcomings (eg, no backlight, poor wireless reception, slow, pricey). As soon as a better alternative comes out I will stop using the kindle. I will look closely at the nook but probably wait for Apple's response.

Sorry guys, you are incorrect here. Kindle is functional but severely lacking for the price. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152891-cftc-belatedly-discovers-the-speculative-oil-bubble?source=feed#comment-612921 612921
"Personally I think futures should only be sold to those needing to
hedge oil, corn, etc"

And the buyers would be who exactly? If you bar the speculators you'll have an issue here. You can't match end-users and producers without timing & volume issues ]]> Mon, 03 Aug 2009 11:47:11 -0400
"Personally I think futures should only be sold to those needing to
hedge oil, corn, etc"

And the buyers would be who exactly? If you bar the speculators you'll have an issue here. You can't match end-users and producers without timing & volume issues ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152891-cftc-belatedly-discovers-the-speculative-oil-bubble?source=feed#comment-612915 612915
That is perhaps the funniest post I've ever read on this site. "The Saidi minister said so: ... LOL , If you believe that you are a complete moron.]]> Mon, 03 Aug 2009 11:44:38 -0400
That is perhaps the funniest post I've ever read on this site. "The Saidi minister said so: ... LOL , If you believe that you are a complete moron.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153049-speculators-stabilize-oil-prices-here-s-proof?source=feed#comment-612902 612902 StopOilSpeculationNow.com"

I am sad that you are not a believer in free markets]]> Mon, 03 Aug 2009 11:37:54 -0400 StopOilSpeculationNow.com"

I am sad that you are not a believer in free markets]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153049-speculators-stabilize-oil-prices-here-s-proof?source=feed#comment-612876 612876
Right. The exemption was granted to permit banks to hedge the transactions they enter into with Oil & Gas companies (who are hedging production). Why should a bank's hedge of such a transaction be included as a speculative position when it is plainly "Commericial" in nature.?

I do agree that classifiying a bank entirely as "commericial" yields inaccurate data because they do also take speculative positions. However, the broad brush you are using overestimates the magnitude of the distortion.

"The really shocking thing about the Swaps Loophole is that Speculators of all stripes can use it to access the futures markets. So if a hedge fund wants a $500 million position in Wheat, which is way beyond position limits, they can enter into swap with a Wall Street bank and then the bank buys $500 million worth of Wheat futures. "

Except that the vast majority of HFs don't execute a position of such magnitude on a linear basis (ie, long/short). Moreover, banks don't take unlimited credit risk on HFs. Such a position (long/short) would most likely need to be fully collateralized making it cost prohibitive. Moreover, the counterparty would need an ISDA agreement and credit/risk limit approval

" Another example of the effects of speculators in the crude oil commodities market was the “ Rogue Trader” who with a 16 million barrel order of crude, pushed up the price of crude oil $4 in the blink of an eye."

I trade oil for a very large bank. No salesman would execute an 18MMbbl order without insuring it is authorized. Moreover, an order like that isn't executed "in the blink of an eye". It is executed quietly and slowly over the course of one or more trading sessions. Finally, a "rogue" trader can and does happen in ALL markets.]]> Mon, 03 Aug 2009 11:26:35 -0400
Right. The exemption was granted to permit banks to hedge the transactions they enter into with Oil & Gas companies (who are hedging production). Why should a bank's hedge of such a transaction be included as a speculative position when it is plainly "Commericial" in nature.?

I do agree that classifiying a bank entirely as "commericial" yields inaccurate data because they do also take speculative positions. However, the broad brush you are using overestimates the magnitude of the distortion.

"The really shocking thing about the Swaps Loophole is that Speculators of all stripes can use it to access the futures markets. So if a hedge fund wants a $500 million position in Wheat, which is way beyond position limits, they can enter into swap with a Wall Street bank and then the bank buys $500 million worth of Wheat futures. "

Except that the vast majority of HFs don't execute a position of such magnitude on a linear basis (ie, long/short). Moreover, banks don't take unlimited credit risk on HFs. Such a position (long/short) would most likely need to be fully collateralized making it cost prohibitive. Moreover, the counterparty would need an ISDA agreement and credit/risk limit approval

" Another example of the effects of speculators in the crude oil commodities market was the “ Rogue Trader” who with a 16 million barrel order of crude, pushed up the price of crude oil $4 in the blink of an eye."

I trade oil for a very large bank. No salesman would execute an 18MMbbl order without insuring it is authorized. Moreover, an order like that isn't executed "in the blink of an eye". It is executed quietly and slowly over the course of one or more trading sessions. Finally, a "rogue" trader can and does happen in ALL markets.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149812-remember-20-oil-looks-like-it-s-coming-back?source=feed#comment-596598 596598 the people who filled their tankers to the brim & now have them
parked in the gulf of mexico or wherever."

Absolutely false, those tankers were filled with nearby priced oil and hedged with long-dated futures. The profit is locked in. It's called CONTANGO !!]]> Tue, 21 Jul 2009 11:45:49 -0400 the people who filled their tankers to the brim & now have them
parked in the gulf of mexico or wherever."

Absolutely false, those tankers were filled with nearby priced oil and hedged with long-dated futures. The profit is locked in. It's called CONTANGO !!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149848-is-natural-gas-about-to-break-higher?source=feed#comment-596574 596574
Come on. Can this website get an experienced commodity trader to write about Oil & Gas for once. This premise borders on the ridiculous. Equity traders that watched oil collapse to $35 from $145 simply started accumulating oil & oil related stocks figuring the bottom must be near. Most traders buy/sell based on expectations. The risk/reward of getting long oil related equities when oil is trading $35 doesn't require a PhD from MIT.

]]> Tue, 21 Jul 2009 11:32:07 -0400
Come on. Can this website get an experienced commodity trader to write about Oil & Gas for once. This premise borders on the ridiculous. Equity traders that watched oil collapse to $35 from $145 simply started accumulating oil & oil related stocks figuring the bottom must be near. Most traders buy/sell based on expectations. The risk/reward of getting long oil related equities when oil is trading $35 doesn't require a PhD from MIT.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147955-t-boone-pickens-epic-wind-fail?source=feed#comment-582653 582653
> T Boone is a pioneer - has game chaning ideas - NG fueled cars ,
> Wind turbines etc - all are very viable ideas - he is simply ahead
> of times. NG fueled vehicles should have taken off a long time ago
> but the conversion/acceptance has been very low despite all the effort and investment on his part.

I disagree. His ideas are not "game changing". They've been around. However, I do give him credit for attempting to bring them to the forefront ... granted, he wasn't doing out of the goodness of his heart .. but that's what drives innovation .... PROFITS .. maybe someone should teach that to the current Admin ]]> Fri, 10 Jul 2009 15:36:53 -0400
> T Boone is a pioneer - has game chaning ideas - NG fueled cars ,
> Wind turbines etc - all are very viable ideas - he is simply ahead
> of times. NG fueled vehicles should have taken off a long time ago
> but the conversion/acceptance has been very low despite all the effort and investment on his part.

I disagree. His ideas are not "game changing". They've been around. However, I do give him credit for attempting to bring them to the forefront ... granted, he wasn't doing out of the goodness of his heart .. but that's what drives innovation .... PROFITS .. maybe someone should teach that to the current Admin ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146213-natural-gas-worth-another-look?source=feed#comment-570257 570257 > the dollar to fall, thus increase the prices of commodities.

Again flawed logic. A falling dollar boosts oil prices because it increases the purchasing power of those whose base currency is something other than the greenback (think China, India, etc). For example, as the dollar falls, 1 Chinese yuan buys more oil than before. Demand rises.

NG is a domestic market predominantly traded by those of us whose home currency is the USD. Very little FX impact]]> Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:50:15 -0400 > the dollar to fall, thus increase the prices of commodities.

Again flawed logic. A falling dollar boosts oil prices because it increases the purchasing power of those whose base currency is something other than the greenback (think China, India, etc). For example, as the dollar falls, 1 Chinese yuan buys more oil than before. Demand rises.

NG is a domestic market predominantly traded by those of us whose home currency is the USD. Very little FX impact]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146213-natural-gas-worth-another-look?source=feed#comment-569693 569693
> I am just pointing out the fact that there is a link between political
> tensions and energy prices....
>
> More than likely, a rise in prices at one location will cause prices
> to rise at others; i.e. Henry Hub.


Amazing! This is but one of several articles I have read by authors on this site that lead me to believe they know little, if anything, about the energy markets. You can try to cover your tracks by claiming you are pointing out the link between political tensions and energy prices but it is a poor defense. EVERYONE understands that already. It's like stating "the ocean is deep". Yeah, no kidding.

Moreover, political unrest in Iran has ZERO impact on US Nat Gas prices. My bet is you have very little experience in the natural gas market. I'm just annoyed that I'll never recover the 30 seconds I wasted reading this article!]]> Wed, 01 Jul 2009 09:04:35 -0400
> I am just pointing out the fact that there is a link between political
> tensions and energy prices....
>
> More than likely, a rise in prices at one location will cause prices
> to rise at others; i.e. Henry Hub.


Amazing! This is but one of several articles I have read by authors on this site that lead me to believe they know little, if anything, about the energy markets. You can try to cover your tracks by claiming you are pointing out the link between political tensions and energy prices but it is a poor defense. EVERYONE understands that already. It's like stating "the ocean is deep". Yeah, no kidding.

Moreover, political unrest in Iran has ZERO impact on US Nat Gas prices. My bet is you have very little experience in the natural gas market. I'm just annoyed that I'll never recover the 30 seconds I wasted reading this article!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/22305?source=feed#comment-472851 472851


On Apr 22 12:12 PM Anwar Bhamla wrote:

> Larry Kudlow is nothing more than a right wing shill. Why are his
> thoughts on an economics/business site?]]> Wed, 22 Apr 2009 12:43:11 -0400


On Apr 22 12:12 PM Anwar Bhamla wrote:

> Larry Kudlow is nothing more than a right wing shill. Why are his
> thoughts on an economics/business site?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132313-is-it-possible-the-current-recession-was-caused-by-oil-prices-not-housing?source=feed#comment-472378 472378
I still believe the driving force behind the current malaise was housing. More specifically, the the packaging and mass distrubution of loans backed by non-creditworthy individuals magnified by huge leverage, poor risk management and less than sufficient regulation/oversight. Of course, punative energy prices exaserbated the problem






]]> Wed, 22 Apr 2009 09:14:06 -0400
I still believe the driving force behind the current malaise was housing. More specifically, the the packaging and mass distrubution of loans backed by non-creditworthy individuals magnified by huge leverage, poor risk management and less than sufficient regulation/oversight. Of course, punative energy prices exaserbated the problem






]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132040-john-hussman-wishful-thinking?source=feed#comment-471267 471267
Kindly show some hard data to support this sweeping, unsubstantiated, off the cuff remark.

"In both cases, low capital costs and free trade made it easy to move machines and destroy equity capital .... The fact that today most of American manufacturing companies are debt bombs is hardly a coincidence"

How can you make a statement like this without referencing the outrageous salary and benefit costs imposed on American manufacturing by Unions?


"For myself, I see no real reason why unemployment can't go to 20%. The only real justification is that drops in the past were followed by expansions."

I'm not even sure what this means

Our reserve currency status is over.

You are incorrect. Our reserve currency status will remain in place until we are no longer the world's dominant military power. Do some research and you will find this is typically the case.

"GE may have leveraged up too high but they also pissed away their equity by buying shares and paying dividends. There's little reason to believe it'll be different this time."

These two sentences don't even belong together. The GE statement is a nonsequitur.

Why did I bother to pick apart your comment? Because I'll never get back the 30 seconds I wasted reading your incomprehensible post.
]]> Tue, 21 Apr 2009 12:09:07 -0400
Kindly show some hard data to support this sweeping, unsubstantiated, off the cuff remark.

"In both cases, low capital costs and free trade made it easy to move machines and destroy equity capital .... The fact that today most of American manufacturing companies are debt bombs is hardly a coincidence"

How can you make a statement like this without referencing the outrageous salary and benefit costs imposed on American manufacturing by Unions?


"For myself, I see no real reason why unemployment can't go to 20%. The only real justification is that drops in the past were followed by expansions."

I'm not even sure what this means

Our reserve currency status is over.

You are incorrect. Our reserve currency status will remain in place until we are no longer the world's dominant military power. Do some research and you will find this is typically the case.

"GE may have leveraged up too high but they also pissed away their equity by buying shares and paying dividends. There's little reason to believe it'll be different this time."

These two sentences don't even belong together. The GE statement is a nonsequitur.

Why did I bother to pick apart your comment? Because I'll never get back the 30 seconds I wasted reading your incomprehensible post.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115396-goldman-analyst-expecting-swift-and-violent-rebound-in-crude-oil-prices?source=feed#comment-361228 361228
The energy articles on this site appear to be written by individuals with very little energy expeience.]]> Tue, 20 Jan 2009 16:51:04 -0500
The energy articles on this site appear to be written by individuals with very little energy expeience.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115396-goldman-analyst-expecting-swift-and-violent-rebound-in-crude-oil-prices?source=feed#comment-361133 361133
You really should do some research before you write stuff like this. Look at their earnings, they MAKE billions trading commodities and have the last few years. I listened to the Goldman analyst call. They are looking for prices to decline to $30 and possibly recover at yr end or early next year. Their oil recovery scenario is based on the economy improving.

I'm not a huge Goldman fan. But I don't like when people distort things
]]> Tue, 20 Jan 2009 15:01:08 -0500
You really should do some research before you write stuff like this. Look at their earnings, they MAKE billions trading commodities and have the last few years. I listened to the Goldman analyst call. They are looking for prices to decline to $30 and possibly recover at yr end or early next year. Their oil recovery scenario is based on the economy improving.

I'm not a huge Goldman fan. But I don't like when people distort things
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114754-crude-reality-how-long-can-oil-stay-down?source=feed#comment-357425 357425


On Jan 15 05:50 PM henarl wrote:

> Wow, lots of comments on this subject. Here's one more: Since perception
> is as important as reality to the short term price of oil, how about
> the perception of a possible war in the whole middle east. If Hezbollah
> starts lobbing more rockets into Israel in sympathy with Hamas and
> in an effort to eliminate Israel once and for all (after all, they
> are both controlled by Iran), and then Israel in desperation bombs
> Iran - Hello WW3. What effect do you think that would have on the
> price of oil?]]> Fri, 16 Jan 2009 08:57:40 -0500


On Jan 15 05:50 PM henarl wrote:

> Wow, lots of comments on this subject. Here's one more: Since perception
> is as important as reality to the short term price of oil, how about
> the perception of a possible war in the whole middle east. If Hezbollah
> starts lobbing more rockets into Israel in sympathy with Hamas and
> in an effort to eliminate Israel once and for all (after all, they
> are both controlled by Iran), and then Israel in desperation bombs
> Iran - Hello WW3. What effect do you think that would have on the
> price of oil?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114806-taxes-so-complicated-even-the-folks-in-charge-can-t-get-it-right?source=feed#comment-355763 355763
In any event, what do you think would happen if you had either of the tax code violations you reference above. I doubt highly you'd get the same slap on the wrist.

]]> Wed, 14 Jan 2009 13:57:26 -0500
In any event, what do you think would happen if you had either of the tax code violations you reference above. I doubt highly you'd get the same slap on the wrist.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113400-three-stocks-that-should-benefit-from-2009-s-trends?source=feed#comment-349950 349950
This is an irresponsible comment. Anyone who has traded crude knows when the term structure is in steep contango it forecasts a decline in prices .... it doesn't speak to a recovery ... ridiculous ... ]]> Thu, 08 Jan 2009 13:54:14 -0500
This is an irresponsible comment. Anyone who has traded crude knows when the term structure is in steep contango it forecasts a decline in prices .... it doesn't speak to a recovery ... ridiculous ... ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/14732?source=feed#comment-348781 348781 Wed, 07 Jan 2009 12:57:27 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/14732?source=feed#comment-348579 348579 Wed, 07 Jan 2009 11:04:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113634-commodities-volatility-indicate-firming-demand-rising-prices?source=feed#comment-348399 348399 Wed, 07 Jan 2009 09:09:48 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113634-commodities-volatility-indicate-firming-demand-rising-prices?source=feed#comment-348389 348389
Look at the daily continuation chart. The mkt has dropped from the $147 high last July without any retracement until now. This is a DEAD CAT BOUNCE]]> Wed, 07 Jan 2009 08:59:12 -0500
Look at the daily continuation chart. The mkt has dropped from the $147 high last July without any retracement until now. This is a DEAD CAT BOUNCE]]>