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JMBrazil

JMBrazil
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  • Bailing Out Of Brazil [View article]
    This article is the typical commonplace I've seen during practically my entire life despite of the tremendous progress this market has presented both economicelly and socially. It jus reveal the short view and misanderstanding many analists have about Brazil. It's not necessary to be an expert to realize the tremendous progress the contry has made in the last 15 years becomming the 6th economy in the world, strongly reducing poverty adding 35M people to the middle class, stating much better macroeconomic indicators when compared to the so called "developed economies" , all of that in an unquestionable democracy. All this type of investors has just been prevented of earning a lot of money in Brazil. On the other hand others better informed did.
    http://reut.rs/NX3VK9

    .
    Sep 29 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The long-awaited cutback in Chinese iron ore production may be starting as an unnamed official at Minmetals Luzhong says his company is digging up less and other miners have halted altogether. What the market may really need are the gorillas - VALE, RIO, BHP - to not just slow expansion plans, but to slash production. [View news story]
    The cutback will obviously affect the supply demand current balance and, unles you do not believe in this basic economic law, it will affect trade terms.
    Sep 11 10:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The long-awaited cutback in Chinese iron ore production may be starting as an unnamed official at Minmetals Luzhong says his company is digging up less and other miners have halted altogether. What the market may really need are the gorillas - VALE, RIO, BHP - to not just slow expansion plans, but to slash production. [View news story]
    Gorilas dont eat bananas, chimpanzees do. Hope you understand more of commodities market than of biology...
    Sep 11 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil has sacrificed ~$20B and lost a significant share of the global seaborne iron ore market in the past decade, mainly due to licensing difficulties which have caused mine project delays, a Vale (VALE) exec says. The world's largest iron ore producer must obtain no fewer than 174 environmental permits to complete projects for which $34B in investments already have been approved.  [View news story]
    YM you should not make an statement you're not prepared to. Did you pay any bribe? To whom?

    The number of "174 liscences" is simply not true. How could VALE became the second biggest mining company under such conditions? It's non sense... Yes, the process of environment liscensing is complicated and it's very much due to international pressures for environment presenvation. Brazil still has 60% of it's territory as preserved forests. Maybe the process of liscensing and preservation should be copied for those coutries that have basically destroied it's own environment.
    Aug 1 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil's Selic Rate Cut To New Low: Is It Enough To Spark Economic Growth? [View article]
    If bureaucracy, protecionism and corruption is the explanation for the lower growth, what about China than?? This issues are out of the focus of the article. For those "on the ground" can clearly see that selic reduction is definetly re-sparking activities and will assure a growth of 4% for 2013 according to the most qualified analisys.
    Jul 24 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil's Selic Rate Cut To New Low: Is It Enough To Spark Economic Growth? [View article]
    CM that was at least for me a fruitfull discussion despite our different views. I just would like to point out that I never dinied the structural issues in the brazilian economy. This is basically a consensus and they have been adressed step by step as it has to be in a democratic society. Our main disagreement is related to the connection you made between these structural issues to the impact of the selic reduction as per our above comments. Thank you.
    Jul 19 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil's Selic Rate Cut To New Low: Is It Enough To Spark Economic Growth? [View article]
    CM I think we've reached now a point where it became clear our different analysis of the same data. I stick to my point of view. This is a typical cycle and the historic reduction of selic is a coherent action from the Central Bank. The connections with other structural indicators and the conclusions you got does not make sense in the context of the article. I'll just allow myself to give you a hint: economic activity is already giving signals of speed recovering after this short slow down. Let’s wait and see…
    Jul 18 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil's Selic Rate Cut To New Low: Is It Enough To Spark Economic Growth? [View article]
    CV I have here already expressed my opposite view of the same data you used as a base for your conclusions. Gini coef. trend is higly favourable, average income is much better than other countries in rapid expansion, not saying that the total salary mass is still increasing; credit to GDP ratio has still a lot to grow which for example let it opened a lot of opportunities in the real state industry; exports are well shared among many different markets and industrial goods are about 40% of that. In this respect Brazil has a privileged situation with a commercial surplus between 15 to 20 BUS$/year and there's no forecast for a further strong decrease in comodities average price which by the way has been totally compensated by the recent Real devaluation. The inflation forecast is rapdly decreasing which allowed the central bank to reduced the basic interest rate in a higly expected decision. The reduction of Basic Rate is in line with decisions from FED, BCE, Bank of Japan, etc. If the results in Brazil will be different is not possible to predict but the good economic theory strongly support it.
    Jul 16 11:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil's Selic Rate Cut To New Low: Is It Enough To Spark Economic Growth? [View article]
    GM, Ford, Caterpillar, IBM, GE, and hundreads of other American companies ( http://bit.ly/Nsimo1 ). Are they going to invest in Catar or... Trnidad Tobago or ... Argentina? Well, what does it mean this productivity ranking?
    Jul 16 10:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil's Selic Rate Cut To New Low: Is It Enough To Spark Economic Growth? [View article]
    I agree Ma, specially regarding Brazilian matters.
    Jul 16 10:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil's Selic Rate Cut To New Low: Is It Enough To Spark Economic Growth? [View article]
    OW, China is also third world. This is not the point here. There are a lot of things to be adressed in Brazil no doubt. There are some even in USA, isn't it? The question is who are the investors inteligent enough to read the data correctly and make money. I saw a lot in the last 20 years including those that are always "hungry" to buy Brazilian bonds everytime they are launched.
    Jul 16 10:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil's Selic Rate Cut To New Low: Is It Enough To Spark Economic Growth? [View article]
    MA it's interesting to see how much information you've at least tried to collect from Brazil (I just disregard the source though). Your analysis is completely distorted. Basically because you’re using parameters and concepts that does not apply to an economy and society like the Brazilian one. How can you compare USA with Brazil??? That simply doesn’t make any sense from the point of view of a rational investor. You’re using your stomach instead. My advice: based on your ideas sell all Brazilian assets now if you have any. For those who disagree with you BUY NOW. Just one more thing: if you're so interested and guess you know so much about, visit the country. I'm sure you'll completely change your oppinion and maybe exchange from an irrational anger to a more productive understanding of the whole picture.
    Jul 16 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil's Selic Rate Cut To New Low: Is It Enough To Spark Economic Growth? [View article]
    Ok, now we have a point. But sorry that may be the head line not the main content of the article. As far as I read it you tried to make a broad analysis of the Brazilian economy not focused just in selic. On this general analysis I strongly disagree with you as per my previous comments.

    Regarding selic, look, this is a historical breakthrough in this economy. After 20 year strugling with inflation (a whole generation almost destroyed) for the first time conditions are such that central bank can responsibly reduce the basic interest rate. That has not been possible for a life time (53 year in my case). The impact is not possible to predict but if he economy theory is right that may in a medium term to booster the investment. It's fully undestandable that those who have been benefited for decades by an enormous transferring of resources from tax payers to investors (or poor to rich) scream now.

    I'm proud of having this discussion with you but going ahead is just worth if you do not switch the reasoning along the discussion.
    Jul 15 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil's Selic Rate Cut To New Low: Is It Enough To Spark Economic Growth? [View article]
    CV although I may agree with some of your comments specially protecionism and intervention it's clear to me that you're unwillingness (any major loss?). Just to get one of your own points look to the evolution of GINI coef along the time http://bit.ly/StOR5Q There're is also a double standard analysis based on average income and standard of living. Again, what about China and India than? Regarding the dependence on China I'm sorry but who can ignore that the whole world economy is more or less in the same situation? Specially those who depend on China for financing historically high fiscal deficits.
    Jul 15 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil's Selic Rate Cut To New Low: Is It Enough To Spark Economic Growth? [View article]
    I appreciate your obvious and deep knowledge of this country. Much better in my oppinion than the author's since more precise and objective. One comment only: this is adeveloping economy though the 6th bigger in the world. Would those issues have been resolved there were no more opportunities for inteligent investors to make money including those holding PBE and VALE...
    Jul 14 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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