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Last 6 months, pattern in 2009 looks like pattern in 2008 ... so my bet is actuals come in stronger tomorrow (Aug 09 releast), followed by four months of coming in weaker (Sept to Dec 09 release) ... if we break the pattern, then expect unemployment rate peak to come in below 10% ... otherwise, look for it to approach 10.4% (stress test level).
Aug 06 18:05 pm
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All Comments by RiskReturnOptimizer »Nonfarm Payroll Reports Since the Start of 2008 [View article]