RiskReturnOptimizer's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/332892/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/154961-china-s-demand-makes-old-signposts-useless?source=feed#comment-622535 622535 Sun, 09 Aug 2009 19:49:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154954-the-s-p-500-fibonnaci-vs-the-kool-aid-man?source=feed#comment-622506 622506 Sun, 09 Aug 2009 19:13:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154881-key-market-factors-global-melt-up-consolidation-or-correction?source=feed#comment-622504 622504
Pullback in SPY will need to be triggered by another catalyst ... materials, industrials, and energy will continue to be strong if China continues the stimulus / easy money policy ...

possible sectors to bring down SPY: XLY (consumer discretionary), and XLF (financials). ]]> Sun, 09 Aug 2009 19:09:59 -0400
Pullback in SPY will need to be triggered by another catalyst ... materials, industrials, and energy will continue to be strong if China continues the stimulus / easy money policy ...

possible sectors to bring down SPY: XLY (consumer discretionary), and XLF (financials). ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/30158?source=feed#comment-622498 622498
In China, don't fight Premier WEN ... Communist Party will do everything needed to grow the economy (bubble or no bubble) ...

Long FXI at least until October 1 (60th Anniversary of People's Republic) ... there will be no problems (if there is, CCTV will not report it) until People's Congress in October ...
]]> Sun, 09 Aug 2009 19:00:58 -0400
In China, don't fight Premier WEN ... Communist Party will do everything needed to grow the economy (bubble or no bubble) ...

Long FXI at least until October 1 (60th Anniversary of People's Republic) ... there will be no problems (if there is, CCTV will not report it) until People's Congress in October ...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/154830-sentiment-overview-bulls-surge?source=feed#comment-621960 621960 Sun, 09 Aug 2009 12:07:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/153555-five-reasons-the-market-could-crash-this-fall?source=feed#comment-621135 621135
1. (80% probability) -- Long TBT -- US economy will be weak for years to come, so government will have to borrow more and more money for Stimulus II, III, etc, driving up treasury yield to satisfy China.

2. (20% probability) -- Long TBT -- US economy will recovery eventually, FED will raise interest rates, QE will end, and inflation expectations will be back, ..., all driving up treasury yields. ]]> Sat, 08 Aug 2009 13:49:07 -0400
1. (80% probability) -- Long TBT -- US economy will be weak for years to come, so government will have to borrow more and more money for Stimulus II, III, etc, driving up treasury yield to satisfy China.

2. (20% probability) -- Long TBT -- US economy will recovery eventually, FED will raise interest rates, QE will end, and inflation expectations will be back, ..., all driving up treasury yields. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/154807-friday-roundup-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-621118 621118
I'm using it mainly as hedge against falling dollar and rising treasury yield / inflation expectations, but is there another view on DBA from either a fundamental or technical analysis?

Any comments, anyone?]]> Sat, 08 Aug 2009 13:28:17 -0400
I'm using it mainly as hedge against falling dollar and rising treasury yield / inflation expectations, but is there another view on DBA from either a fundamental or technical analysis?

Any comments, anyone?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/154638-economic-stimulus-so-is-it-working?source=feed#comment-621113 621113
which provides a steep yield curve that helps banks earn easy money while waiting for charge-offs to stabilize ... each month that goes by where unemployment rate gradually rises to any peak below 10.4% will be fine for the banks as stress test "adverse" scenario is already modeled in for tangible common equity ratios ...

likewise, any hint of inflation will drive investors away from 0% money market funds into anything that holds value -- commodities, foreign currency, TIPS, etc ...

best investment now include: TBT as hedge for rising yields, DBV to protect against falling dollar, and DBA / XLE as play on commodities.]]> Sat, 08 Aug 2009 13:20:17 -0400
which provides a steep yield curve that helps banks earn easy money while waiting for charge-offs to stabilize ... each month that goes by where unemployment rate gradually rises to any peak below 10.4% will be fine for the banks as stress test "adverse" scenario is already modeled in for tangible common equity ratios ...

likewise, any hint of inflation will drive investors away from 0% money market funds into anything that holds value -- commodities, foreign currency, TIPS, etc ...

best investment now include: TBT as hedge for rising yields, DBV to protect against falling dollar, and DBA / XLE as play on commodities.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/154621-confidence-games-and-ponzi-schemes-no-way-to-run-the-world-s-largest-economy?source=feed#comment-621066 621066
Suggest adding a chart of "Household Net Worth" (taking your Asset chart and subtracting Personal Liabilities) ... you will see a much steeper decline as Liabilities (Mortgage and Consumer Non-Mortgage Credit) didn't drop much in past 3 years ...

Drop in Net Worth is the factor that will determine how high the Savings Rate will eventually go ... now that unemployment rate increases have moderated .... government spending as we've seen will go directly to Savings as opposed to increasing consumer spending ...

of course, if banks starts doing mortgage modifications with principal reduction, then that's a whole different story ....]]> Sat, 08 Aug 2009 12:36:54 -0400
Suggest adding a chart of "Household Net Worth" (taking your Asset chart and subtracting Personal Liabilities) ... you will see a much steeper decline as Liabilities (Mortgage and Consumer Non-Mortgage Credit) didn't drop much in past 3 years ...

Drop in Net Worth is the factor that will determine how high the Savings Rate will eventually go ... now that unemployment rate increases have moderated .... government spending as we've seen will go directly to Savings as opposed to increasing consumer spending ...

of course, if banks starts doing mortgage modifications with principal reduction, then that's a whole different story ....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153393-jim-rogers-focus-on-china?source=feed#comment-621051 621051 Sat, 08 Aug 2009 12:25:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/30138?source=feed#comment-620392 620392 Fri, 07 Aug 2009 16:43:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154606-sentiment-readings-disturbingly-bullish?source=feed#comment-619706 619706 Fri, 07 Aug 2009 10:45:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154401-double-your-profits-when-treasuries-tumble?source=feed#comment-618768 618768 Thu, 06 Aug 2009 18:19:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154434-nonfarm-payroll-reports-since-the-start-of-2008?source=feed#comment-618759 618759 Thu, 06 Aug 2009 18:05:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154339-75-billion-in-new-treasuries-on-deck-momentarily?source=feed#comment-618256 618256 Thu, 06 Aug 2009 12:56:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154195-china-s-new-purchasing-powerhouse-women?source=feed#comment-618037 618037 Thu, 06 Aug 2009 11:20:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154307-jobless-claims-fall-103-500-in-4-months-looks-like-the-end-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-617990 617990 Thu, 06 Aug 2009 11:10:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154298-china-beware-bubble-2-0?source=feed#comment-617928 617928
best strategy may be to take profits on key holdings like FXI and use some of the profit to buy upside call options to participate in the final move (with defined loss).]]> Thu, 06 Aug 2009 10:48:11 -0400
best strategy may be to take profits on key holdings like FXI and use some of the profit to buy upside call options to participate in the final move (with defined loss).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/154281-market-cycles-a-look-at-the-historical-evidence?source=feed#comment-617915 617915 Thu, 06 Aug 2009 10:41:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/29922?source=feed#comment-617327 617327 Wed, 05 Aug 2009 22:07:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154066-bond-expert-wednesday-wrap-wild-ride?source=feed#comment-617124 617124 Wed, 05 Aug 2009 18:43:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154095-nasdaq-index-awaits-a-catalyst?source=feed#comment-617109 617109 Wed, 05 Aug 2009 18:39:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/153937-i-m-bearish-here-but-not-a-perma-bear?source=feed#comment-616494 616494 Wed, 05 Aug 2009 12:33:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/153988-the-recession-is-over-bloomberg-u-s-financial-conditions-index-reaches-21-month-high?source=feed#comment-616448 616448 Wed, 05 Aug 2009 12:20:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/153802-nine-of-ten-sectors-overbought?source=feed#comment-616185 616185 Wed, 05 Aug 2009 10:39:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/153655-leveraged-etfs-not-bad-just-misunderstood?source=feed#comment-615549 615549 Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:03:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/153621-a-classic-crude-bear-trap?source=feed#comment-615547 615547 Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:01:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/153536-three-possible-reasons-why-cit-isn-t-trumpeting-its-no-bankruptcy-status?source=feed#comment-615546 615546 Tue, 04 Aug 2009 19:59:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/153526-treasury-more-borrowing-less-short-term?source=feed#comment-615470 615470 Tue, 04 Aug 2009 19:04:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/153492-markets-are-heading-higher?source=feed#comment-615460 615460 Tue, 04 Aug 2009 19:01:35 -0400