the ilster's Comments

Time for the Market Fizzle?

Fri, 03 Apr 2009 09:22:57 -0400

I agree I think this rally is a bit long in the tooth. However as a short seller the BBY earnings and RIMM earnings make you wonder if the worst is over.

Simon Says - Or, Why It's Hard to Give Economy Lessons on Comedy Central

Sun, 22 Mar 2009 11:25:14 -0400

if you listened to the entire video you would understand he was talking about Oligarchs which has been a threat to our democracy for centuries

On Mar 20 10:17 PM Gardener wrote:

> Why is this on SA?

Roubini: "Dear investors, do enjoy this dead cat bounce and bear market sucker’s rally..." but, "don’t wait too long until you jump ship while the financial Titanic hits the next financial iceberg; you may get squeezed and crushed in the rush to the lifeboats."

Mon, 16 Mar 2009 11:50:55 -0400

I read the entire article Roubini posted and he makes a lot of sense. We just popped the largest global credit bubble in history. any recovery is will far out in the future if we even get one.

On Mar 16 11:32 AM Denis Ouellet wrote:

> Professor Roubini is long on words and short on facts in this very
> long epistle. Look at my post today for the facts that Roubini has
> conveniently ignored or minimized:
> www.news-to-use.com/20...
>

More on Roubini and Shiller's Dour Outlook

Thu, 12 Mar 2009 19:13:06 -0400

Those charts really amplify the bubble we were in and now are popping

Is the War Against Systemic Risk Being Lost?

Sun, 08 Mar 2009 19:13:08 -0400

Systemic Risk is very much on the table right now. IE plunging equity prices. The CDS spreads regarding BRK and GE is ample evidence. A chain reaction of debt defaults is immanent. If you cant see the time bomb of Defaults coming in 2009 that will crater the financial system you are BLIND. If we make it to the summer I will surprised.

People need to understand the financial system is permanently DAMAGED! Its being allowed to slowly implode by the masters of the universe THE FEDERAL RESERVE. You still have time to sell stocks and get short and make money here. Don't be a fool! This is black and white. Depression and Deflation are better than 75% chance. While I am an eternal optimist the facts speak so loudly that I have to be a realist. were toast! For more in depth analysis go to chrismartenson.com and watch the Crash course. It will enlighten you and give you confidence to stay short the market. positions QID AMZN IYR all shorts and 1 long RJI commodities index

The Bear Market Takes a Breather

Sun, 08 Mar 2009 06:49:37 -0400

Those trend lines you identified are very helpful! I will watch those closely as I am extremely short at this time. QID IYR AMZN

The Bane of Broken Balance Sheets

Sat, 07 Mar 2009 12:00:19 -0500

That problem is there is more debt in the system than the ability to pay. Remember if new credit is not being created to feed the huge appetite of the debt payments and interest in the system guess what? MASSIVE DEFAULTS EVERYWHERE Chain reactions are coming to a company/person near you. that means earnings in the stock market are going a lot lower. Collapse is immanent. Its a mathmatical certainty. Have confidence in shorting the market long term

Top Strategists Still Expecting a 46% Gain from Here

Thu, 05 Mar 2009 20:43:02 -0500

following these strategists will bankrupt you. Earnings are collapsing along with the Stock market. its going to 5000.

Bearishness at 20 Year High: Big Bounce in the Waiting?

Thu, 05 Mar 2009 20:36:34 -0500

If your looking at oversold conditions to make your move your crazy! The market is going down to support levels in the LOW 600s on the S&P. your far better of shorting the market and taking advantage of the downside

Market Summary: Good Riddance to the Worst February on Record

Tue, 03 Mar 2009 11:14:57 -0500

The fact that there is more debt in the system than the ability to pay is problematic. The fact that no new money is getting to people in the system in order to pay those debts is signaling lower stock prices as well as massive defaults in 2009

Dennis Gartman Is Long on Cheap Retail, Short on Malls

Mon, 02 Mar 2009 21:06:07 -0500

Dennis Gartman said this a month ago.
"yes, we have relatively large amounts of debt, but you can go back to the recession of 1974; you can go back to 1980-81; you can go back to the recession of 1907, and you will see the same arguments—that the world is too debt-laden. And the same arguments, the same language, the same verbiage was always written in exactly the same circumstances. Guess what? We moved on. This time might be different, but I’ll bet that it won’t be.

I Dont trust him! He has a fundamental misunderstanding our predicament. Systemic Risk as a result of Too Much Debt that cannot be repaid is our problem it will cause massive defaults and serious deflation. Sell

Dr. Doom Responds on Wells Fargo

Sat, 28 Feb 2009 15:41:24 -0500

Say what you want about the man. He understands the ecomomy and his forecasts are dead on. Too many people just don't understand. The entire global economy was one big bubble and its bursting as we speak. Yet Bernake says nothing about it. who are you going to follow? Roubini is the MAN.

S&P Lowers Insurers Ratings, What About Banks' $400B CMBS Losses?

Fri, 27 Feb 2009 10:02:58 -0500

yup its a ticking time bomb I am short IYR myself. Too bad its such a crowed trade. Do you have any other ideas on how to profit from this?

The Market Is Not Your Friend

Tue, 24 Feb 2009 20:06:34 -0500

All this technical analysis is great in the short short term however the fundamentals look horrible going forward. I am looking to get short again on this rally somewhere. It wont hold

Four Reasons Peter Schiff Is Wrong

Tue, 24 Feb 2009 10:30:20 -0500

Wow you really are clueless! I suggest you get educated by Nouriel Roubini. Your assumptions are laughable. You really have no idea what is going on. let me help you. THIS IS THE PROBLEM

We have now reached the stage where the banker's charade of paper money and debt can no longer expand fast enough to even minimally service the debts it has created.

Slow Down Mr. Roubini

Mon, 23 Feb 2009 23:23:17 -0500

You are in for rude awakening. We are on the verge of collapse. Any bounce off of 741 on the S&P should be shorted into or sold.

On Feb 23 06:29 AM J. Nielsen wrote:

> I couldn't agree more. It is amazing about these so called experts,
> who keeps predicting the end of everything, whether it is the Dollar,
> the Euro, The Swiss Franc, the Sterling, - or the eventual collapse
> of the UK, the US, the EU, Switzerland, Eastern Europe, Russia and
> China.
>
> The experts have no expertise in predicting anything, it is all about
> about getting as much publicity as possible, making it about them
> and not their predictions. Soros is a big Soros propaganda machine,
> even in Congress he encouraged them to read his book.
>
> Certainly, there are problems out there, but why create an evil spiral
> of negative forecasts.
>
> It would be very interesting if somebody created a list of all the
> predictions of mr Roubini, Geroge Soros and Jim Rogers and others
> and see how often they are wrong.
>
> I bet they are wrong more often than right, just like everyone else.
>
>
> You cannot predict the future.
>
> We all know the butterfly effect.
>
> I hope somebody will create the list and prove them wrong during
> and after the crisis.

Could the Dow Reach 4000?

Mon, 23 Feb 2009 21:41:11 -0500

Yes I agree. there is absolutely nothing that I can think of to be bullish about. I have looked at this over and over and just dont see it. We are toast do not count out social unrest as a result of this outcome

Stock Market at a Critical Juncture

Sun, 22 Feb 2009 15:44:56 -0500

Yeah this is a very bad market and it is reflecting a serious downturn coming on Mainstreet. Were screwed buy gold or get short.

Don't Panic, Inflation Will Save Us

Fri, 20 Feb 2009 09:54:21 -0500

I just wonder if M1 will get any velocity in the system to cause inflation? If the banks are all hoarding it and it does not get lent. Then how do we inflate?

2009's Absurd Earnings Expectations

Fri, 20 Feb 2009 09:27:46 -0500

Finally someone getting it right! Its amazing to me how off the mark most Wallstreet analysts are.

21 Reasons to Be Bullish

Thu, 19 Feb 2009 08:46:56 -0500

Here we go again trying to make the bull case with lots of data based on the bubble era, that is now history! This is a new world we live in today. People have been ripped off by wallstreet! Job losses are pilling up. Oil has plunged showing yu te sad state of the global economy. State budgets have huge deficets. There is little confidence in this market and we are deflatiing the largest credit/stockmarket bubble in the history of man. Gold is going through the roof signaling inflation down the road. The banking system is insolvent on the verge of collapse. Valuations are still in transition mode and we are resetting the economy to a significantly lower level. Over capacity is all over global economy sure to mute any earnings growth. Total amount of credit availablity has contracted making it impossible for significant upside.

Seriously I can see a bear market rally but thats about it. Look at the Nikkei index. its near its 26 year low. that my friends is what we have to look forward to. Finally I suggest you follow Nouriel Roubini and his economic work. He has been correct the entire time. He is calling for 20% declines in the major indexes from here.
Wake up people this is a ery risky market especially right now.
Short IYR and long SDS and USO

Politics As Usual Prevent Market Rally; Time to Tranche into Oil?

Wed, 18 Feb 2009 16:15:25 -0500

What people fail to understand is the amount of debt piled up across the system as well as the overcapacity. those factors will lean on equity valuations and earnings for a while. Being short and playing for the final capitulation is the best strategy here. 741 on the S&P is coming thats another 6% at least. Remember this is a bursting stock market bubble! They are always painful and go down more than people think. Just look at Japan currently the nikkie is at it's 26 year low. long SDS and short IYR

Gold: The Only Remaining Bubble?

Wed, 18 Feb 2009 15:47:19 -0500

I suggest you understand who really controls the money supply. These Oligarch banksters create booms and busts! We are in the bust cycle. The entire master plan is coming apart at the seams beyond their control. They are scared shitless. While that may seem spooky to some. Ron Paul and a crowd of people are awakening to their scheme.

How on earth are we going to pay for all debts we have created? US debt is estimated at 78 trillion including Soc Sec and Medicare liabilities. World GDP is 78 trillion! Do the math we are screwed! so we must print money to inflate it away. That means inflation and the end of money as we know it. Can you say gold!!!!!! what a no brainer

For those of you who want FACTS please go to chrismartenson.com and check out the Crash Course. It will open your eyes.

Latest Bank Leverage Stats - Some Still High

Wed, 18 Feb 2009 11:22:40 -0500

remember the Banksters control the world! thats why the got bailed out first. they are all crooks and have ruined America!

On Feb 18 07:14 AM apppro wrote:

> <> Rolfe to explain>>
>
> The entire chart seems suspect. But even if it might be slightly
> right - the leverage is NOT the problem, but rather how shorts have
> been rumorboarding all these companies into oblivion.
>
> Add to this so-called reporters, especially Dylan Ratigas of CNBC,
> who seem to be on a "PERSONAL" mission to destroy our banking system.

Will SPY Reach 2002 Levels?

Tue, 17 Feb 2009 23:32:28 -0500

Nice Job! I think its a no brainer.... thank god I am currently short

Forecast: Recovery, But Not Until Q3

Tue, 17 Feb 2009 22:56:20 -0500

I am very close to your assessment. I just hope we dont have social collapse. I did buy a gun few weeks ago my gut told me to do it. by the way I never shot a gun in my life Im almost 40

I am short IYR and long SDS and long USO<(getting killed)

On Feb 17 10:20 PM mr freddo wrote:

> We are headed for a huge fear dump based on some seriously bad financial
> data coming from all over the world. A sense of panic grips me
> as I realize that the system is breaking down quickly. Dow 5000
> is...next week maybe?
>
> Bad Trade Data, Banks without capital, holding trillions in losses.
> Derivative contracts in the hundreds of trillions wreaking havoc
> as they lose trillions in value. And there is no way to unwind the
> position...
>
> Financial Institutions are broken down, without capital, draining
> more losses every day. Very soon, a crisis will create a run on
> the banks. The banks will close.
>
> It is time to prepare for the worst. Stock up on food, water, wine,
> vodka, medical supplies. Figure that you may want to stay inside
> and out of harm's way for a month or so.
>
> I pray that I am incorrect about the course of events and that my
> fear stems from that which is seen at the bottom of bear markets.
> Panic, fear, capitulation.
>
> Still, it doesn't hurt to be prepared.
>

Don't Kick Yourself Later for Not Buying Gold and Silver Now

Tue, 17 Feb 2009 18:45:20 -0500

based on what?

On Feb 17 09:54 AM know nothing wrote:

> Can you say CRASH? Look out below!

Google: The Case Against a Second Half Recovery

Tue, 17 Feb 2009 12:05:33 -0500

yes I agree. the notion of a second half recovery is foolish. Only those listening to the Mainstream media believe that. If you used common sense you would realize that we had a boom and now we are having a bust. The bust will last a while. How long? at least into 2010. What does that say for earnings? Down! That means new lows in the S&P 500 this year. What part of that do you people not understand. its so simple. This is a new world we live in. The days of boom boom boom are history!! the next depression is well underway. SELL!!!!!!!

Japan's 'Unimaginable' Contraction

Mon, 16 Feb 2009 20:29:45 -0500

I am long SDS

On Feb 16 05:45 PM norkot2003 wrote:

> you want to be long sds , not short.........you need to be long
> a short

Japan's 'Unimaginable' Contraction

Mon, 16 Feb 2009 17:39:10 -0500

The contraction is coming our way! The stock market is very risky right now.
How anyone can think that we will rebound in the second half of the year is FOOLISH. That is pure propoganda to keep everyone invested while the power players sell everything and get short. Open your eyes people!!!! We will break to new lows this year if not this qtr! short IYR and SDS