Conan the Barbarian

Top 5 Highlights from the Phoenix Resource Conference

Of course, there is one thing that will push the Dollar down for a very limited time, the Normal end of quarter "lets enhance our international earnings" manipulation by the Big Internationals.

What could drive Gold down could be plain old rotation. Banks up, Gold down.

???

Top 5 Highlights from the Phoenix Resource Conference

What would lead to a Hammering of Gold similar to that of 2008?

For now, all of the headwinds listed are Knowns. To Hammer Gold? and not Hammer the USD at the same time.

I really do not have any scenario that would achieve both simultaneously But if You are serious about shorting against the Box, why not just go with DZZ in the interim?

Top 5 Highlights from the Phoenix Resource Conference

Okay, sounds about right, I was shooting for a Bull Trap after mid-march going into april with a Sell in May and go Away type of scenario.

MVG is new to me. Thank you.

American Express Buying Out Cardholders: Bad for the Economy?

YH: one other thing, I am currently watching the supply/demand structure in Physical Gold via the Futures vs Spot markets, live on Bloomberg.

Gold surged on the way up once it went into Contango, which I have always considered to be the normal Future Inflation risk role of gold.

The nearby Futures contract for Gold on the way Up had a $1 to a $1.50 premium. So far, Gold on the way down has seen a decrease in that spread to about a $1 or less.

I am postulating that when spot starts to trade near or above the futures again. It will be a good time to reenter.

Just a Tool I am developing.

American Express Buying Out Cardholders: Bad for the Economy?

YH: since AXP just increased my Cash Advance amount by 50%, I doubt whether I will be a recipient of a letter asking me to cancel my card. Member since 1972.

I use AXP strictly for Cash Advances, I usually repay within a week, sometimes the next day. Debit cards are great but I hate the Limitation on ATM withdrawals.

The latest news on AXP Credit Card default rates was almost 9%. I do not blame them at all for trying to curtail future losses. Whatever algorithm they are using to cull the herd or to use historical late payments, or whatever... is in their best interest on an economic basis.

It could also be a sign that the worst is over on a Contrarian point of view.

I am going to delay my current payment, in the hope that I receive a similar letter.

I would think that DFS could take a lot of market share here with cash on hand. They have already announced a Credit/debit card for parents to give to their kids. Interesting concept.

Why Friday Was Such a Critical Day for Bank Stocks

The Big Bankruptcy could be AIG.

They are rumored to be announcing a $60 Billion loss on Monday. They have multiple insurance subsidiaries across the country which have Mark to Market assets. These assets have to meet the Standards of each individual State to be able to provide insurance in that State. Mark to Market has been around in the Insurance Industry since the 1970s.

State Audits only cover roughly 1/3rd of the Industry every year. (things may have changed in the last 25 years but I doubt it. Insurance is a very staid industry)

If AIG goes into Bankruptcy, dissolution of numerous insurance companies under its umbrella will follow.

Neither the Fed nor the Treasury govern the Insurance Industry. The NAIC is the watchdog, National Association of Insurance Commissioners, one from every State. Each State will decide on the Fate of the Subsidiary selling insurance policies in their respective states.

This Bankruptcy would make Lehman seem like peanuts.

Why Friday Was Such a Critical Day for Bank Stocks

Gary: do you have a bank account of any sort?

Lets assume you do. Your quote: "You are gambling if you support them."

Lets say all of the Banks are nationalized. You are Now Gambling that the Government will allow you to take your money out. The Run would be on the US Treasury. It would not be Limited to just your money.

The Rest of the world would what theirs too.

Why Friday Was Such a Critical Day for Bank Stocks

The Hedge Funds may have been the Judas Goat, but with the elimination of the Uptick Rule, It is the Short Sellers who have done the actual slicing and dicing.

Why Friday Was Such a Critical Day for Bank Stocks

Whitehawk: Defaulting on the PFDs would be akin to defaulting on a Companys Bonds. These are not dividends they are yields on debt issued at a fixed price.

There will not be a partial payout. The Gov. received PFDs from BAC which have a Yield of XYZ. The Trust PFDs have priority over the Gov..

Citi's Trust PFDs operate the same way. They have priority over the Gov's payout. But I believe C has a greater probability of dying. So i'm not interested.

Why Friday Was Such a Critical Day for Bank Stocks

Bosun: Since I know you are an optimistic soul at heart and very diligent as your handle implies, I take it you have a reason for your pessimism. They are both "dead" per your view. But you aren't shorting them either.

I make this assertion because you did not disclose a short position, BAC will be BACk to $7 by the end of next week and the overall market will rally.

You are afraid to be wrong. IMHO

Why Friday Was Such a Critical Day for Bank Stocks

JPM is the safest common Bank stock out there.

But for appreciation, I'd go with BAC.

The weakest does appear to be C which did not rebound like BAC.

But then I've gone the BAC-Trust PFD Series X route and am Biased.