Conan the Barbarian

Safe Haven Investments: Imminent Danger and Opportunities

I really hate these long streamed articles, but what the hey.

Full Disclosure: Heavy positions in SWC, PAL, OMG and SLV.

"Will continue to buy some select silver shares including SSRI, HL, PAAS, and SIL"

the Article's date is 10/29/2008 ( 6 months ago)

Time to Buy China, Copper, the Canadian Dollar and Oil

Hunneycut: KUB, Kubota out of S. Korea. China will favor Korean producers on a Political basis but considering the shape of the Korean currency. KUB will be able to undercut CAT and Deere easily.

Dr. O: In this market, where no one knows where the next Governmental intrusion will take place, we are all learning.

I just hope I've made the right guestimates regarding future income generation, right now I'm using the "shotgun" approach.

Time to Buy China, Copper, the Canadian Dollar and Oil

Commodities in General, with the softs in particular, are really looking like they are basing.

The LME Copper not only has stopped its fierce ascent but has shown signs of withdrawals. Meanwhile, the WTI/Brent spread is almost nonexistent.

All in All, I feel that the corner has been turned. The problem with the ETF/ETNs is that they trade like stocks more than what they represent.

DAG and DYY, DXO...spat upon and thrown into a ditch.

all of them are waiting to be reborn.

Having said that, I have reentered the Munibond area with the purchase of 1,000 shares of MHI, $9.19.

Why mention it here? MHI has just increased its payout by 7%. I take the increase to mean that the markets are moving again in the Financial arena. If this area is moving again and with higher yields(ie greater coupons), then, at least to me, it means that deflationary expectations may have turned the corner.

I welcome the discourse.

Time to Buy China, Copper, the Canadian Dollar and Oil

Wavelenght: How about MIC, Macquarie?

Not a bank but certainly beaten down, Know anything about their Prospects?

Stocks Rally, Giving Traders Hope

That was 24 hrs ago by short covering in reponse to rumors. IMHO

Time to Buy China, Copper, the Canadian Dollar and Oil

It was a rumor spread from Asia which triggered short covering. The chickens are coming home as the roost burns?

Things have changed a bit though, whether because of Chinese buying or Mine closure, London LME copper inventories have stalled/stopped their ascent and are actually going down.

Oil may have hit a bottom. Iran, of all Opec countries to believe, made a comment that a production cut was not in the works which pummeled prices for ..what... a couple of days before popping back up.

The big difference here is that between the drop and pop, WTI which had been trading below Brent by 10% or more now trades at 3% or less.

Since we do not export WTI( to my Knowledge) and Brent is grade equivalent to WTI, one could make the case that the Supply/demand imbalance has finally been rectified. In my opinion.

Ergo, I would start seriously looking for the beneficiaries of stable to higher oil prices....

Tooo many to choose from...but you do have a multitude of ETF/ETNs avaiable.

IMHO

Old Fashioned Leverage: China Takes Out Its Wallet

China is in the process of stockpiling 150,000 tons of copper, with similar large positions in other minerals.

The difference this time around is that they have been doing so slowly instead of in Bulk as they had in the past.

Soon people will be talking about the attempt by the Government to get the People to consume internally produced goods.

Old Fashioned Leverage: China Takes Out Its Wallet

You are right, but why would you be worried about a move below $900?

Isn't it a normal occurrence for markets to shake out the Weak?

Traders Were Looking for More Stimulus Plan Details

Gld and Gold: back to the drawing board.

If you missed the physical, get into the junior/midsized miners.

Since, I already own a few, I will list what I have but not the reasons why since all of them had their own compelling views at one time or another: AUY, EGI, EGO, NXG and TGB(Copper/Gold).

These are my holdings, do your own DD. Only EGI is does not have production but they do own some very important Mongolian Leases.

Freeport-McMoran on Copper and China

Since January of 2008, the number of Tonnes in storage at the LME has increased from around 105,000 to almost 480,000. Inventory in New York warehouses has gone from 5,000 tons to 40,000 tons.

China is indicated to purchase some 150,000 tons for its infrastructure needs.

With copper production still above what the world needs, it will take time for this inventory to be reduced.

Freeport-McMoran on Copper and China

On the one hand demand will not wane, on the other hand FCX will reduce output by 9% in 2009 and 17% in 2010...huh?

China will use copper in their infrastructure...yadda... yadda.

China will buy internal production as much as possible to stimulate growth in its own Mining sector as well.

New supplies of copper have been found all over the world. Billions of pounds from Peru to Mongolia are within reach but out of reach because of funding constraints, what was feasible at $3-4 copper is not with copper at $1.50. (PCU continues to develop such an ore body with BVN).

Since it looks like Infrastructure in the US will not have an impact on copper until late 2009, at the earliest. Copper still has a chance to drop to $1.00/lb.

Gold as a Truly Last Resort

It seems to me that it is the fiat printing of money which seems to be spooking everyone. In the Weimar Republic, it led to hyperinflation because it devalued the currency.

The biggest difference between then and now and the Equation that would lead to a similar collapse in the USD is that All other countries are devaluating their own currencies in a similar manner.

Currently, the USD IS stronger than anyone else's excepting the Yen whose country has gone through this once before. In the 1920's, Germany was an Island onto itself. Today, the World is in it together.

Meanwhile, Gold as priced in Dollars, seems to be tracking the Euro. As the Euro drops against the USD so does gold in terms of $s.

Mind you, I'm haven't looked at this Graphically yet. It just struck me as I was posting this comment.

So, if anyone can easily do so, Please take a look if there really is a coorelation. Thanks.

Gold as a Truly Last Resort

One would think that a decline in physical gold would be possible given 8 years worth of annual increases.

Deleveraging will continue, Gold was part of the leveraging process. Why should there be a disconnect?

The Gold Bear started in, I believe, March of 2008. The Fact that it did not break above $1000 again even though oil approached $150, 3 months later, should have made gold investors suspicious.

Ever since that high, gold has had lower high and lows.
That Trend is intact. A new Low would take out $700.

For many months, Gold stock pundits have been saying that Gold shares were trading as if gold was at $600.

I have taken that as my target.

Gold will be above a Thousand again but not this year.

Besides, a move from the new lows to $800 would give me my needed correction and set the stage for $1300-$1500 gold sometime next year.

I am very, very bullish on both gold and the S&P. And I do believe the USD will get reamed eventually.

But I also believe the Pain will continue. I do not expect a new sustained move up in the S&P this October. IMO

Gold as a Truly Last Resort

The dollar has been moving Up not down for the last 3 weeks, more than 5 % and continuing its climb in the wee hours of Jan. 12..

The last resort is gold. True, it is also true that in Bear Markets the strongest during the Previous Bull usually go down the most and the leaders of the Next Bull Market are not those of the Past Bull.

Newmont Mining's symbol is NEM. But thanks for NM which I find more interesting anyway.

In the last month Gold has traded in a range of about $60 dollars but never above $900. In the last 3 Months gold has been above $900 and down below $700.

It currently has a double top in place which will be broken if Gold manages to go above $900. Since the dollar is rising, I expect it to drop below $800 at the very least. This is my opinion.

My question to you is: At what point do you cut your losses? Your position is All In Now.

I would not like to take undo losses and do not want to lose anymore money than I have to.

What if your scenario does not play out as you envision.
Do you have a Plan B?