ROLEX18K's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/334108/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/117882-update-on-the-gold-trade?source=feed#comment-373049 373049 All technical indicators follow the price action, not the opposite, if chicken/egg maybe sill unanswered question in science, in the markets it is known that first was the price, then indicator.]]> Mon, 02 Feb 2009 07:41:57 -0500 All technical indicators follow the price action, not the opposite, if chicken/egg maybe sill unanswered question in science, in the markets it is known that first was the price, then indicator.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117860-silver-in-backwardation-has-the-last-cantango-been-danced-in-washington?source=feed#comment-373047 373047 Silver futures have about 1 year of backwardation, Gold only 3 months.
What it means in this case? It means that deflation that is witnessed in global economy finally starts to work reaching almost any asset, the Nickel, Copper or Steel crashed at some point 80% in few months while Gold didn't and explanation is that investors look at Gold as some magic metal, in fact it is not and backwardation while very insignificant already states the mind of producers who sell Gold today for later delivery, they know that they have expenses in USD$ not Gold ounces, for them Gold is a commodity same as potato to a farmer, they digg it to sell it, not to collect.
Silver will crash more than Gold, that's why almost 12 months of backwardation, the main Silver use silverware is almost non existing anymore and out of fashion, the industrial use is declining together with declining industries that use it and the best barometer of world industries is DJIA, DAX, FTSE, NIKKEI indexes which are all down.
From my past observations, backwardation in any commodity is a bearish indicator for up to 5-7 years.Stay tuned. ]]> Mon, 02 Feb 2009 07:34:18 -0500 Silver futures have about 1 year of backwardation, Gold only 3 months.
What it means in this case? It means that deflation that is witnessed in global economy finally starts to work reaching almost any asset, the Nickel, Copper or Steel crashed at some point 80% in few months while Gold didn't and explanation is that investors look at Gold as some magic metal, in fact it is not and backwardation while very insignificant already states the mind of producers who sell Gold today for later delivery, they know that they have expenses in USD$ not Gold ounces, for them Gold is a commodity same as potato to a farmer, they digg it to sell it, not to collect.
Silver will crash more than Gold, that's why almost 12 months of backwardation, the main Silver use silverware is almost non existing anymore and out of fashion, the industrial use is declining together with declining industries that use it and the best barometer of world industries is DJIA, DAX, FTSE, NIKKEI indexes which are all down.
From my past observations, backwardation in any commodity is a bearish indicator for up to 5-7 years.Stay tuned. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117839-bonds-slumping-metals-looking-bullish?source=feed#comment-373038 373038 TIPS) are the best asset preservation for a smart investor.
Stocks are going to decline from current prices additional 60-80% in the next 20 years, it have no sense to hold stocks and be bunkrupt when retirement will knock the door.
Gold same as stocks, another dumb asset that is going to collapse 80% in the next 10-15 years.
If you lost already in the stock market, forget it, clear your tears, invest in inflation linked long term government bonds and that's it.
Maybe you will not make much, few percent a year but you will recover in 20 years what you lost in 2008-2009, I know it sounds grim but this is the only option to get something, other option is to go bankrupt for retirement.]]> Mon, 02 Feb 2009 07:13:26 -0500 TIPS) are the best asset preservation for a smart investor.
Stocks are going to decline from current prices additional 60-80% in the next 20 years, it have no sense to hold stocks and be bunkrupt when retirement will knock the door.
Gold same as stocks, another dumb asset that is going to collapse 80% in the next 10-15 years.
If you lost already in the stock market, forget it, clear your tears, invest in inflation linked long term government bonds and that's it.
Maybe you will not make much, few percent a year but you will recover in 20 years what you lost in 2008-2009, I know it sounds grim but this is the only option to get something, other option is to go bankrupt for retirement.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117828-gold-rising-as-equities-tumble-but-where-s-it-heading?source=feed#comment-373032 373032 If you were bears not humans and were going for a winter sleep for 6 months, then you wake up till August 2009 Gold will be no higher that 500-600$.]]> Mon, 02 Feb 2009 06:56:58 -0500 If you were bears not humans and were going for a winter sleep for 6 months, then you wake up till August 2009 Gold will be no higher that 500-600$.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117897-hedging-can-cause-volatility-in-earnings-and-stock-price?source=feed#comment-373030 373030 I understand that SA lost about 50% of audience since last year as this is natural way of bear market force, when people lose money and lose interest in the financial news as this money are gone and nothing improves.
But by giving everybody a right to publish whatever he wants, you make out of your website a information junkyard.]]> Mon, 02 Feb 2009 06:51:39 -0500 I understand that SA lost about 50% of audience since last year as this is natural way of bear market force, when people lose money and lose interest in the financial news as this money are gone and nothing improves.
But by giving everybody a right to publish whatever he wants, you make out of your website a information junkyard.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117775-the-end-of-gold-part-two?source=feed#comment-372771 372771 As Buffett said ( he lost 40% this year but he is not stupid ) that he don't invest in Gold as it has no utility, it doesn't generate income in the same way as Coca-Cola, Hershey's, Wrigley's or insurance policy, he said that people are crazy who digg it underground in Africa in some dirt then bring it to Europe and US and store it in underground again, I also agree with him, Gold is industrial matal and jewelry, it is same as Steel, Nickel or Lead and it also can crash.
I don't say Gold is not nice, it is very nice and precious when in jewelry but it is not immune from declining 80% same as Nickel or other bubble assets.Everything is good when price is right, I am proud of US and especially COMEX that they allow me to sell it short from Frankfurt in Germany, I havn't even been to USA and don't want to go there ever, but GOD BLESS AMERICAN CAPITALISM for allowing foreigners to sell it short.Same I made few hundred thousans $ selling Dow Jones futures not even holding ever 1 share of any DJIA stock.
I love America, God bless you!]]> Sun, 01 Feb 2009 18:45:46 -0500 As Buffett said ( he lost 40% this year but he is not stupid ) that he don't invest in Gold as it has no utility, it doesn't generate income in the same way as Coca-Cola, Hershey's, Wrigley's or insurance policy, he said that people are crazy who digg it underground in Africa in some dirt then bring it to Europe and US and store it in underground again, I also agree with him, Gold is industrial matal and jewelry, it is same as Steel, Nickel or Lead and it also can crash.
I don't say Gold is not nice, it is very nice and precious when in jewelry but it is not immune from declining 80% same as Nickel or other bubble assets.Everything is good when price is right, I am proud of US and especially COMEX that they allow me to sell it short from Frankfurt in Germany, I havn't even been to USA and don't want to go there ever, but GOD BLESS AMERICAN CAPITALISM for allowing foreigners to sell it short.Same I made few hundred thousans $ selling Dow Jones futures not even holding ever 1 share of any DJIA stock.
I love America, God bless you!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117796-why-are-gold-and-the-dollar-running-together?source=feed#comment-372765 372765 USD is too big an animal for any bank except the Fed to sell it when it is in the rally mode, but GC which is mostly traded on COMEX and other futures venues is easy to manipulate.
Even 1-2 billion $ strategy buying GC constantly can shift a balance of positions to net long, the shorts who can't keep their shorts go out at loss and new shorts enter.
In general this is very bad for GC price when it will start to be dumped when some other banks will sell physical GC ( 100oz of physical sell equals 10,000oz in futures game ) and we are very near such change in direction as price moves are very fast in Gold, it looks as big players do all they can to prop up the price.But it will all stop when small physical sell order will enter the pit.
Remember, not investor who buys 1 American Eagle to hide all his wealth in the coin and then writes on SA that he is a gold bug, controls the supply/demand in gold, same as not some conspirator end of the world freak who bought gold stocks that are down 70% controls it.
The pit belongs to the banks and banks belong to the Fed, also it can be that Fed is happy that some investors are buying GC at this prices and sells it's GC slowly to this big manipulators but in the end THE BOSS will set up everybody and gold will crash.
I see the gold bug's face when they will face it, the total crash in gold.]]> Sun, 01 Feb 2009 18:27:57 -0500 USD is too big an animal for any bank except the Fed to sell it when it is in the rally mode, but GC which is mostly traded on COMEX and other futures venues is easy to manipulate.
Even 1-2 billion $ strategy buying GC constantly can shift a balance of positions to net long, the shorts who can't keep their shorts go out at loss and new shorts enter.
In general this is very bad for GC price when it will start to be dumped when some other banks will sell physical GC ( 100oz of physical sell equals 10,000oz in futures game ) and we are very near such change in direction as price moves are very fast in Gold, it looks as big players do all they can to prop up the price.But it will all stop when small physical sell order will enter the pit.
Remember, not investor who buys 1 American Eagle to hide all his wealth in the coin and then writes on SA that he is a gold bug, controls the supply/demand in gold, same as not some conspirator end of the world freak who bought gold stocks that are down 70% controls it.
The pit belongs to the banks and banks belong to the Fed, also it can be that Fed is happy that some investors are buying GC at this prices and sells it's GC slowly to this big manipulators but in the end THE BOSS will set up everybody and gold will crash.
I see the gold bug's face when they will face it, the total crash in gold.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117806-economy-watch-what-if-stocks-were-priced-in-gold?source=feed#comment-372759 372759 But there is one crucial difference, stocks even when overvalued serve some good to society, to investors who bought/sold them, to employees who work, to consumers...I think you all can imagine that stocks are not some ticker symbols on exchange, there is much more about stocks than gold.
The normal ratio for DJIA/Gold would be 20-40 historical average 30.
Today's gold price is very close to collapse as there is no even money to pay back credit card debt, morgage.
How something can rise when even very rich people cut spending like crazy, I ask who then buys gold.
Maybe you?]]> Sun, 01 Feb 2009 18:09:27 -0500 But there is one crucial difference, stocks even when overvalued serve some good to society, to investors who bought/sold them, to employees who work, to consumers...I think you all can imagine that stocks are not some ticker symbols on exchange, there is much more about stocks than gold.
The normal ratio for DJIA/Gold would be 20-40 historical average 30.
Today's gold price is very close to collapse as there is no even money to pay back credit card debt, morgage.
How something can rise when even very rich people cut spending like crazy, I ask who then buys gold.
Maybe you?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117723-random-observations-on-the-gdp-announcement?source=feed#comment-372109 372109 Friday's GDP was so bad that it will take the market higher in near term but most of you will not make any money on it, you will only watch your stocks and do nothing hoping for DJIA to go back to 14500.
This are dreams, but short covering rally is warranted.]]> Sat, 31 Jan 2009 15:12:05 -0500 Friday's GDP was so bad that it will take the market higher in near term but most of you will not make any money on it, you will only watch your stocks and do nothing hoping for DJIA to go back to 14500.
This are dreams, but short covering rally is warranted.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117662-don-t-expect-oil-prices-to-break-50-until-q2-firstenergy-capital?source=feed#comment-370956 370956 Fri, 30 Jan 2009 09:38:16 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117583-global-sovereign-bond-watch-overstuffed-supply?source=feed#comment-370919 370919 But probably writers on SA are the 5% of winner takes it all.]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 09:23:03 -0500 But probably writers on SA are the 5% of winner takes it all.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117615-getting-fired-up-on-cleaner-internal-combustion-technologies?source=feed#comment-370828 370828 I hate stocks as I don't trust people who run and milk them, I can only buy stock if it is well hedged with 2X3X short index ETF.
Also many investors wonder and follow hedge funds holdings, without understanding that successful funds don't make money in stocks, they only made money is selling against it SP 500 index futures.

]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 08:26:27 -0500 I hate stocks as I don't trust people who run and milk them, I can only buy stock if it is well hedged with 2X3X short index ETF.
Also many investors wonder and follow hedge funds holdings, without understanding that successful funds don't make money in stocks, they only made money is selling against it SP 500 index futures.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117633-coffee-from-the-etn-perspective?source=feed#comment-370822 370822 JO) have 3 month average volume of $100,000 a day, while KC (coffee futures) have average 100 days trading volume of 675,000,000$ a day.
For a very small investor, who invests 1000-5000$ in JO this may be appropriate, but not for serious investor who want to trade coffee or who wants liquidity.
JO has volume of 2000-3000 shares at the price around 40$, bid/ask spread is sometimes 5-10%. It is cearly not for everybody, but if you believe in coffee and want to buy JO, then you have to buy and forget about it, as even if it will go up 10% you will be only even because of bid/ask difference.
This is very illiquid ETN with only 50,000 shares outstanding (2 million USD) and have expense ratio excluding crazy bid/ask difference, of 0.75%.
Really not for everybody, even if Coffee I believe is a good investment.]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 08:17:45 -0500 JO) have 3 month average volume of $100,000 a day, while KC (coffee futures) have average 100 days trading volume of 675,000,000$ a day.
For a very small investor, who invests 1000-5000$ in JO this may be appropriate, but not for serious investor who want to trade coffee or who wants liquidity.
JO has volume of 2000-3000 shares at the price around 40$, bid/ask spread is sometimes 5-10%. It is cearly not for everybody, but if you believe in coffee and want to buy JO, then you have to buy and forget about it, as even if it will go up 10% you will be only even because of bid/ask difference.
This is very illiquid ETN with only 50,000 shares outstanding (2 million USD) and have expense ratio excluding crazy bid/ask difference, of 0.75%.
Really not for everybody, even if Coffee I believe is a good investment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117622-hedge-fund-to-measure-returns-in-gold-rather-than-currency?source=feed#comment-370801 370801 Instead of making profits in the markets and let investors decide what to do with their EUR,GBP,CAD,CHF,USD,JP... this hopless manager tricks them to stay with some fairy end of the world tales.
If I am an investor, hedge fund made from 1 mln $ 50%, i made 500,000$ I will decide myself what to do with this money, buy gold,sell gold,buy Porsche,buy house, buy paintings...what the hell some silly hedge fund honcho is proposing, is a prove that he is losing money and looks for other ways to keep dissapointed investors inside.
Sell the hedge fund boy short.]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 07:43:26 -0500 Instead of making profits in the markets and let investors decide what to do with their EUR,GBP,CAD,CHF,USD,JP... this hopless manager tricks them to stay with some fairy end of the world tales.
If I am an investor, hedge fund made from 1 mln $ 50%, i made 500,000$ I will decide myself what to do with this money, buy gold,sell gold,buy Porsche,buy house, buy paintings...what the hell some silly hedge fund honcho is proposing, is a prove that he is losing money and looks for other ways to keep dissapointed investors inside.
Sell the hedge fund boy short.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117617-the-shedlock-schiff-affair-a-chronicle?source=feed#comment-370783 370783 The other 49% of hedge funds are delivering long term returns same as passive mutual fund investing in SP 500, only hedge funds charge 20-50% for it, mutual fund 0.25%.
And then there is 1% of hedge funds who survived crash of 70's, 80's, 90's, 2000 and current crash, are not funds that manage billions $$$, only small funds can make money consistently and their size can not be more than 500 mln$, the big hedge funds that had billions and now will be liquidated were not made to make money from trading, they are good marketing firms and good fraudsters and bear market found them naked and now it's time to face it.]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 07:27:06 -0500 The other 49% of hedge funds are delivering long term returns same as passive mutual fund investing in SP 500, only hedge funds charge 20-50% for it, mutual fund 0.25%.
And then there is 1% of hedge funds who survived crash of 70's, 80's, 90's, 2000 and current crash, are not funds that manage billions $$$, only small funds can make money consistently and their size can not be more than 500 mln$, the big hedge funds that had billions and now will be liquidated were not made to make money from trading, they are good marketing firms and good fraudsters and bear market found them naked and now it's time to face it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117605-orient-express-hotels-d-e-shaw-co-discloses-6-3-ownership-stake?source=feed#comment-370772 370772 Hedge funds are marketing tool, not a super secret trading machine.]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 07:05:39 -0500 Hedge funds are marketing tool, not a super secret trading machine.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117008-deephaven-capital-management-set-to-close?source=feed#comment-370768 370768 Fri, 30 Jan 2009 06:54:58 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117573-opec-wants-less-speculation-on-oil-futures?source=feed#comment-370743 370743 If OPEC would not speculate and manipulate the price of Oil, I would support increased regulation in how many contracts individual trader or a commercial can trade, but it will never happen as in the end capitalist system is stronger ( richer ) than the OPEC's will and markets in futures will remain what they are, a place where fortunes are made and broken.
There will be some noise about increased regulation, but in the end lobbyist in financial trading will shut the congressmen's mouths and fill their pockets and life on the pits and trading floors will continue as it always does.]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 05:58:40 -0500 If OPEC would not speculate and manipulate the price of Oil, I would support increased regulation in how many contracts individual trader or a commercial can trade, but it will never happen as in the end capitalist system is stronger ( richer ) than the OPEC's will and markets in futures will remain what they are, a place where fortunes are made and broken.
There will be some noise about increased regulation, but in the end lobbyist in financial trading will shut the congressmen's mouths and fill their pockets and life on the pits and trading floors will continue as it always does.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117576-baltic-dry-index-the-best-economic-indicator-you-ve-never-heard-of?source=feed#comment-370736 370736 10-20 years ago there were many indicators you could trust, but with proliferation of hedge funds and exotic trading instruments BDI become a victim of it's success.
Today it is traded just like any other commodity or stocks, hedge funds were given billions to gamble in casino so they have to throw the chips around, the latest recovery in BDI while is worth noticing, I think it is no more than some hedge fund honcho says:
Wow, it looks cheap,then calls some bank who is eager for business and says, buy me 100 mln $ of Balic.
- Sorry, what?
-That Baltic index, I just have seen a chart in FT and found on Google their website, some market in London where it is traded.Check for 100 mln $ how much leverage I get, bye.
After 5 minutes banker calls back.
- You can buy 1 billion $, I will place your 100 mln $ into our segregated account for margin requirements,OK, our commission to buy 1 billion of it ( whatever it is ) is 0,001% of full amount.
-Deal, no problem, if it is not so liquid buy me at market, I want to have it, it is down 95%.
- OK, you was filled already, market is up 10%....
Then some Phd. looks at BDI chart and says, I am genious, I discovered the market bottom indicator, I will write about it on my blog, let everybody later see how genious I am.
I called the bottom, I called the bottom.]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 05:47:07 -0500 10-20 years ago there were many indicators you could trust, but with proliferation of hedge funds and exotic trading instruments BDI become a victim of it's success.
Today it is traded just like any other commodity or stocks, hedge funds were given billions to gamble in casino so they have to throw the chips around, the latest recovery in BDI while is worth noticing, I think it is no more than some hedge fund honcho says:
Wow, it looks cheap,then calls some bank who is eager for business and says, buy me 100 mln $ of Balic.
- Sorry, what?
-That Baltic index, I just have seen a chart in FT and found on Google their website, some market in London where it is traded.Check for 100 mln $ how much leverage I get, bye.
After 5 minutes banker calls back.
- You can buy 1 billion $, I will place your 100 mln $ into our segregated account for margin requirements,OK, our commission to buy 1 billion of it ( whatever it is ) is 0,001% of full amount.
-Deal, no problem, if it is not so liquid buy me at market, I want to have it, it is down 95%.
- OK, you was filled already, market is up 10%....
Then some Phd. looks at BDI chart and says, I am genious, I discovered the market bottom indicator, I will write about it on my blog, let everybody later see how genious I am.
I called the bottom, I called the bottom.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116900-e-trade-financial-corporation-q4-2008-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed#comment-370726 370726 Fri, 30 Jan 2009 05:02:18 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117268-buffett-is-not-a-leader-just-a-great-investor?source=feed#comment-370446 370446 I never had some idols in my life and never followed any "star" trader, hedge fund honcho, Madoff "made for VIP investors only", Soros scam, Long Term Capital Management ( where name tells it all, how can you know long term markets when it is unpredictable, no computer was able to predict crash of 1997 in Asia, 1998 in Russia and LTCM meltdown, 2000 Nasdaq bubble, 2008 crash that will be remembered as bigger crash in proportions and longevity than 1929 even ).
Mr.Buffett I respect because he is very good dealmaker, always get's better deal than others, invests only in stocks that have economy of scale and which products and services reach billions of people making profits in the end.
But one thing Mr.Buffett can not and couldn't predict, the so called long wave or supercycle that last 70 years on average.
This is real macro wave, many economists tried to explain it and make 4 waves out of it or 4 cycles in one big cycle.
I am afraid that today we entered this wave that will ride us for 70 years.
70 years of declining markets?
No, of course not, I even believe that DJIA will reach 14500 after 35 years the 70 years wave doesn't mean declining markets, it is more explanation of hard times ahead but not directly linked to predict the markets.
Let's say you are 40 years old, lost 50% in the IRA mutual fund, you retire in 25 years but the market by then will be same as today only your buying power will decline significantly, you will never see your money back, you will teach your 15 years old children to keep out of stocks as it is scam that makes rich only insiders, not investors.
So your son will not touch stocks for next 20-30 years, by then he will have his own young children and only this generation will participate with all their savings in the next big mega bubble. This is what cycle mainly mean, only next generation of investors will make bubble, present will have to learn to save, not spend...]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 18:04:23 -0500 I never had some idols in my life and never followed any "star" trader, hedge fund honcho, Madoff "made for VIP investors only", Soros scam, Long Term Capital Management ( where name tells it all, how can you know long term markets when it is unpredictable, no computer was able to predict crash of 1997 in Asia, 1998 in Russia and LTCM meltdown, 2000 Nasdaq bubble, 2008 crash that will be remembered as bigger crash in proportions and longevity than 1929 even ).
Mr.Buffett I respect because he is very good dealmaker, always get's better deal than others, invests only in stocks that have economy of scale and which products and services reach billions of people making profits in the end.
But one thing Mr.Buffett can not and couldn't predict, the so called long wave or supercycle that last 70 years on average.
This is real macro wave, many economists tried to explain it and make 4 waves out of it or 4 cycles in one big cycle.
I am afraid that today we entered this wave that will ride us for 70 years.
70 years of declining markets?
No, of course not, I even believe that DJIA will reach 14500 after 35 years the 70 years wave doesn't mean declining markets, it is more explanation of hard times ahead but not directly linked to predict the markets.
Let's say you are 40 years old, lost 50% in the IRA mutual fund, you retire in 25 years but the market by then will be same as today only your buying power will decline significantly, you will never see your money back, you will teach your 15 years old children to keep out of stocks as it is scam that makes rich only insiders, not investors.
So your son will not touch stocks for next 20-30 years, by then he will have his own young children and only this generation will participate with all their savings in the next big mega bubble. This is what cycle mainly mean, only next generation of investors will make bubble, present will have to learn to save, not spend...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117409-an-honest-kind-of-forecast?source=feed#comment-370420 370420 But it can backfire, if more and more ceo's call market bottom and it will not materialize, the sentiment will decline and decline and when finally fundamentals will really turn for a better, there will be no investors money to take it as trust will be lost.
Investors psychology is much bigger force than some major DJIA or SP 500 stocks beating quarterly estimates, once you lose investors trust, we will not buy Dow Jones before it will reach 2000-3000.
I think that even 6000 points on the DJIA is a super buy from macroeconomic viewpoint and earnings will be worth the price as a bargain, but after all the lies the ceo's will experience the full force of investors sentiment, be careful what you wish for.]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 17:28:40 -0500 But it can backfire, if more and more ceo's call market bottom and it will not materialize, the sentiment will decline and decline and when finally fundamentals will really turn for a better, there will be no investors money to take it as trust will be lost.
Investors psychology is much bigger force than some major DJIA or SP 500 stocks beating quarterly estimates, once you lose investors trust, we will not buy Dow Jones before it will reach 2000-3000.
I think that even 6000 points on the DJIA is a super buy from macroeconomic viewpoint and earnings will be worth the price as a bargain, but after all the lies the ceo's will experience the full force of investors sentiment, be careful what you wish for.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117419-gross-stop-the-asset-price-decline?source=feed#comment-370401 370401 Your life is being destroyed, everybody to the streets!!!]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 17:02:17 -0500 Your life is being destroyed, everybody to the streets!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117343-five-missing-pieces-to-the-stimulus-plan?source=feed#comment-370330 370330 All this was made to stop investors panic for a right reaon and bring confidence, but instead of confidence markets are back where it all started.
Nothing will help before DJIA will not reach it's destination, that is 3000 points.Sell the government short!]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 15:59:32 -0500 All this was made to stop investors panic for a right reaon and bring confidence, but instead of confidence markets are back where it all started.
Nothing will help before DJIA will not reach it's destination, that is 3000 points.Sell the government short!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116900-e-trade-financial-corporation-q4-2008-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed#comment-370320 370320 Thu, 29 Jan 2009 15:52:03 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117366-dreaming-of-better-days?source=feed#comment-370244 370244 In this conditions stocks can not go up, there can be rallies same as since 1929 till 1954 were rallies too, but it took 25 years to come back.
I expect now it will take 30-40 years for DJIA to be 14500 points again.]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 14:56:16 -0500 In this conditions stocks can not go up, there can be rallies same as since 1929 till 1954 were rallies too, but it took 25 years to come back.
I expect now it will take 30-40 years for DJIA to be 14500 points again.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117351-finally-some-momentum-for-junior-golds?source=feed#comment-370154 370154 So not all Gold investors are equal, for those who bought Gold stocks last year at the same Gold price as now, they are still losing big time, those who bought since Gold was 700$ are doing excellent.
But I suspect that those investors who are losing are overweighting winners by 1:10 ratio.]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 14:03:48 -0500 So not all Gold investors are equal, for those who bought Gold stocks last year at the same Gold price as now, they are still losing big time, those who bought since Gold was 700$ are doing excellent.
But I suspect that those investors who are losing are overweighting winners by 1:10 ratio.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117362-gold-and-silver-perhaps-the-bugs-have-the-wrong-beast?source=feed#comment-370086 370086 If history of economic recessions is any guidance for predicting the Gold price, the current crash should bring Gold to 200-300$ an ounce.
The better indicator for Total Gold Crash is yesterday's appearance of last bubble boy on Bloomberg, may I present you Mr.David Einhorn the master of Greenlight Capital hedge fund, as Bloomberg says 5.1 billion $ fund ( I havn't checked it but I doubt it, today even Bernie Madoff can have 50 billion $ run as a scam ).

www.bloomberg.com/apps...

usually on the top of the bubble, some master will appear as a last drop of poison and since that top the assets rarely come back to such a level.
In 2000 it was some internet analyst, I forgot his name but in 2000 he was every day in the news pumping Nasdaq bubble.
I compare today David Einhorn as such a golden boy, Gold will never be 1030$ again.]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 13:04:46 -0500 If history of economic recessions is any guidance for predicting the Gold price, the current crash should bring Gold to 200-300$ an ounce.
The better indicator for Total Gold Crash is yesterday's appearance of last bubble boy on Bloomberg, may I present you Mr.David Einhorn the master of Greenlight Capital hedge fund, as Bloomberg says 5.1 billion $ fund ( I havn't checked it but I doubt it, today even Bernie Madoff can have 50 billion $ run as a scam ).

www.bloomberg.com/apps...

usually on the top of the bubble, some master will appear as a last drop of poison and since that top the assets rarely come back to such a level.
In 2000 it was some internet analyst, I forgot his name but in 2000 he was every day in the news pumping Nasdaq bubble.
I compare today David Einhorn as such a golden boy, Gold will never be 1030$ again.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117276-oil-prices-poised-for-a-big-rise-by-year-end?source=feed#comment-370050 370050 It is great that speculators lease those tankers ( great for a leasing party that pockets profits after the deal is signed ), speculators are the core to market trading, they allow other speculators to lose and make money.
Now I look at logic of those deal, not at possibility as I don't know where Oil will be in 9 months, not even in 9 days.But we have those tanker traders who probably know it.
December 09 Oil is trading at 55$ a barrel and spot at 42$.
So where the holder of tanker is making money?
As you rightly say 70$ would be acceptable price to sell for November or December delivery.
Logically looking in this deals I don't see big risk, the only problem will be declining Oil price, it will put pressure on margins as the lease rate must be paid as you checked on Bloomberg 1$ per month and a difference between front and next month in Oil futures is about 4$, the sharply declining spot Oil price will put pressure on this difference plus further months will decline too and deal can become uneconomic.
I think what else could be, maybe traders bought tankers and immediately sold Sept,Nov,Dec Oil futures but this trade is more like to be even than money maker.
To me personally this deals stink, this traders make profits only if forward months prices are rising so IN THE END THIS IS PURE SPECULATIVE LONG OIL TRADE it only works if prices go up.
There is no backup plan in this trade.
]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 12:37:40 -0500 It is great that speculators lease those tankers ( great for a leasing party that pockets profits after the deal is signed ), speculators are the core to market trading, they allow other speculators to lose and make money.
Now I look at logic of those deal, not at possibility as I don't know where Oil will be in 9 months, not even in 9 days.But we have those tanker traders who probably know it.
December 09 Oil is trading at 55$ a barrel and spot at 42$.
So where the holder of tanker is making money?
As you rightly say 70$ would be acceptable price to sell for November or December delivery.
Logically looking in this deals I don't see big risk, the only problem will be declining Oil price, it will put pressure on margins as the lease rate must be paid as you checked on Bloomberg 1$ per month and a difference between front and next month in Oil futures is about 4$, the sharply declining spot Oil price will put pressure on this difference plus further months will decline too and deal can become uneconomic.
I think what else could be, maybe traders bought tankers and immediately sold Sept,Nov,Dec Oil futures but this trade is more like to be even than money maker.
To me personally this deals stink, this traders make profits only if forward months prices are rising so IN THE END THIS IS PURE SPECULATIVE LONG OIL TRADE it only works if prices go up.
There is no backup plan in this trade.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117038-contango-how-it-affects-crude-oil-etfs-and-etns?source=feed#comment-370010 370010 I disagree with that, USO have exact correlation with the price of NYMEX Crude Oil. If they would use leverage they would have margin calls like hell, but they didn't since Oil went from 147$ to 35$.
It seems to me that you are better at writing than knowing the subject you pretend to be an expert on.
]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 11:55:04 -0500 I disagree with that, USO have exact correlation with the price of NYMEX Crude Oil. If they would use leverage they would have margin calls like hell, but they didn't since Oil went from 147$ to 35$.
It seems to me that you are better at writing than knowing the subject you pretend to be an expert on.
]]>