ROLEX18K

Buffett Is Not a Leader, Just a Great Investor

Every star has it's time in space before it burns, I am very sorry that Mr. Buffett's star reached it's plateau point where only way is down, down, down.
I never had some idols in my life and never followed any "star" trader, hedge fund honcho, Madoff "made for VIP investors only", Soros scam, Long Term Capital Management ( where name tells it all, how can you know long term markets when it is unpredictable, no computer was able to predict crash of 1997 in Asia, 1998 in Russia and LTCM meltdown, 2000 Nasdaq bubble, 2008 crash that will be remembered as bigger crash in proportions and longevity than 1929 even ).
Mr.Buffett I respect because he is very good dealmaker, always get's better deal than others, invests only in stocks that have economy of scale and which products and services reach billions of people making profits in the end.
But one thing Mr.Buffett can not and couldn't predict, the so called long wave or supercycle that last 70 years on average.
This is real macro wave, many economists tried to explain it and make 4 waves out of it or 4 cycles in one big cycle.
I am afraid that today we entered this wave that will ride us for 70 years.
70 years of declining markets?
No, of course not, I even believe that DJIA will reach 14500 after 35 years the 70 years wave doesn't mean declining markets, it is more explanation of hard times ahead but not directly linked to predict the markets.
Let's say you are 40 years old, lost 50% in the IRA mutual fund, you retire in 25 years but the market by then will be same as today only your buying power will decline significantly, you will never see your money back, you will teach your 15 years old children to keep out of stocks as it is scam that makes rich only insiders, not investors.
So your son will not touch stocks for next 20-30 years, by then he will have his own young children and only this generation will participate with all their savings in the next big mega bubble. This is what cycle mainly mean, only next generation of investors will make bubble, present will have to learn to save, not spend...

Warren Buffett's 'Secret' Investment Formula

it is stupid, sorry, to call W.Buffett the most successful or best investor when BRK.A and BRK.B have same correlation as Dow Jones and on the comparisan chart look just the same, all 3 down 40%.
What is smart about it, to lose and win with Dow Jones?
I same can call and investor or manager of any company who's stock is down 40% with the market.
It is not hard to perform like SP 500 or DJIA in a bull market, crash is only time when one can see who is a real winner and on this scale Buffett is not.
If you would call him most rich person on earth, then it is impossible to argue, but most successful he is not.
I want to show you here investor who beated Buffett with wide margin in 2008, the most challenging year since 1929.

www.marketguru.com/ROL...

10 Hedge Fund Best Ideas

I see people don't understand hedge funds at all, they don't make money buying stocks, they make money selling the index futures and the stock holdings are held only as a hedge against their SP500 index shorts.
It depends on the fund of course, but the big names with many years in the market and that still remain today, it is only because they lost much less or even made money on their shorts against long stocks.
Also don't forget about their trading in OTC which can hide their real performance as OTC is not announced in any SEC fillings like stocks do.
Don't let fool yourself, only 1% of hedge funds make money consistently.

Hedge Fund Portfolio Tracking: Renaissance Technologies (Jim Simons), Q3 2008

What sense it has to quote 100 symbols that somebody holds, it is like listing WILSHIRE 5000 companies and say that those have hedge fund investor of 0.2% or 1.9% ?
What do I care what John or Paul or Johnny bought few months ago or yesterday? You quote those traders as some gods when in reality they are same boys and girls like you and me.
You can't make money following some hedge fund manager and looking in the garbage what brand of coffee he drinks or what orange juice he drinks.