yen4pesos

Valero's Major Announcement a Telling Economic Indicator

Should one need to know the real cost (and gamble) of maintaining one of these dinosaur refinerys, just ask anyone in the legal department of BP. The repair bill for the disatrous explosion in Texas is dwarfed by the outrageous amounts of money being asked for and settled upon in the law suits that followed. I have many many years of experience in oil patch maintenance and repair and I assure you that every refinery is far from optimal safety.... It's just a fact of life. The hazards that one assumes when working around this equipment also comes with a damn good pay check.... But there is always an enormous risk and it is accepted by workers that that risk compounds as the particular unit ages... Knowing that,... my hat is off to VLO mgmnt. The shutdown call will probably save them millions...... or billions if the worst case scenario happens. Which it will..... All refiner operators of these relics that we so highly depend on,... just roll the dice every day they operate.... My son is safer in Afghanistan than a Houston refinery....

Valero's Major Announcement a Telling Economic Indicator

Valero may not be as dumb or as poorly run as you think. That plant is not worth the money to repair for VLO, obviously. But, if any of you Sunday quarterbacks recall,VLO now is the primary owner of many Ethanol plants from a purchase last spring... a much better place to put ones money on future bets than a worn out sour crude processor... You can only darn socks so many times before they are just thread bare and must be tossed. VLO will come out way on top by taking the hit now, utilizing all their tax write downs and using their money where they have bet heavily, cutting ethanol into the rest of their gasoline. It is a forward looking plan thats time is coming no matter what you think. Also look for VLO to lead on nat gas service and filling stations in their already far superior delivery and sales stores... And oh, by the way utilizing every tax break and incentive the "Greenies" are going to cheerfully give them...... NO,... You are 180 out if you think VLO is doing this in its death throes.... It is a well thought of closure, even if they don't find a buyer soon. But as PT Barnum said..."There's a sucker born every minute.".... It'll sell,...and if not!!!. It's like all those old trucks, cars, and farm equipment around my uncles farm.... "That aint junk... those are write offs".... Buy VLO..you won't be sorry.

Roubini Softens His View on the Economy ... Slightly

I don't think you're grasping this..... If the markets drop again it will be to a completely new hand that is being dealt currently. And, it may very well drop again...as a matter of fact, I can assure you it will.... (I get the feeling that fills you with joy).. But it will have nothing to do with 08's tanking that was caused by greedy games in the derivatives market and not Dubya and the Haliburton boys and their grand scheme with Dr. No to destroy the world... No,... that crash has come to an end.. It has left a weak and battered economy. But, he did make it back to the corner after the bell. Now it's up to his corner to get him ready for the next round... And I am one of the many that think he'll fare better this round. As for Bush's tax rebate check being swallowed by gas prices.... I'm not sure where you got your data but I hope your not paying for it..... Whew dude.... You might check durable goods for the following quarter,.. see what it might say. But even at the far end of your reasoning, I hope you realize the money was returned back into the economy either way ....... which was the whole point,.... like ok?.. Yes,.... we need energy independence. You are very estute... But heres the kicker, it will be the oil and gas sector that will bring it about... Isn't that a hoot.. The very group of people you seem to despise are gonna save your butt.... And no my friend,... electric cars and wind mills are a long way down the road before they make a notable difference. Yes,... it's coming, but its value will not be recognized until long after we are on our way to independece by using LNG... a hydro carbon..... usually associated with oil companies. Good look... don't trade the cow for magic beans... Be a leader not a follower


On Oct 03 10:51 AM jerrydd wrote
>
> No mention of what will cause the double dip. it will be the price
> of oil skyrocketing up because we are not becoming independent on
> imported oil. This not only drives up the oil price but drain far
> more money out of our economy.
>
> A major reason Bush's 07 stimulus checks did not work is they were
> eaten up by rising oil prices. Of course most economist, wall street
> don't have a clue is they could afford it while 90% of the US could
> not as they couldn't afford the 100% real inflation over Bush's term.
> This cut everyones wealth in half from clerk to retirees and was
> the real reason for the economic collapse.
>
> With no jobs or savings to speak of I just don't see how the economy
> will recover anytime soon.

Roubini Softens His View on the Economy ... Slightly

Roubini sure gets a lot of press for making a pretty obvious call.. I mean really,.... if you couldn't see through the BS by May 08, and certainly by August.... You probably deserve the haircut you got. The, " Let's heap praise on Roubini. He's so smart" mantra is getting a little tiring. In my opinion, he was probably luckier at calling the W. Although he has failed to see that the peak at the middle of the W was early in January and not August as he was hoping.... Heck,... it had already passed by the time he called it! Nope AR you've blown that one. The real ace at making the call was Paulson..... If you aren't aware of his call,.... maybe you better stick with something else ... This might not be your game....Here is where you look for wisdom grasshopper... On streets with walls of concrete and marble.... not ivy.

Leading Economic Indicator Isn't Indicating the Real Recovery

Another great article Steve. But, I'm a "boomer"... My house is paid for.... I've never believed the value of my home was a real number anyway. My income comes in part, from the markets that as you pointed out are doing well. My rentals are full, as no one wants to buy,and the banks won't loan. Plus, I am noting a general shift in attitude towards renting as opposed to buying anyway. A trend I think you may be aware of as well. And alas,your employment numbers mean absolutely nothing here in New Mexico due to the "hidden economy" that is wrought with illegal aliens and billions in "real" revenue that is not reported. Also to mention would be the 10"s of thousands of jobs that are in this "cash under the table economy" that is not only rampant but may even be leaning towards predominance. A factor that is full well known by our state government but yet is to ready to give the ol'," nod and the wink". And best of all Steve, here in New Mexico, you don't need a SSN# to get a loan for a vehicle or a home!!! It's happening as we speak... Factor that in... My suggestion to you for more representitive data would be to just eliminate any data that comes from any border state, or the southwest in general... it is certainly massaged and erroneous at the least. Except maybe the number of legal registered voters... I'm sure it's correct...

China Deficit Potential Makes Scary Headlines

Ahh a keen and experienced eye... It is a little known secret learned from us Yanks... I have seen millions of auto parts imported from Canada, taken out of their box, repackaged in a US companies box(with appropriate logo) and loaded back on a truck for export at the other side of the plant.... Hey.. it eliminates billions in over priced labor fees.


On Sep 25 04:54 PM Glen88 wrote:

> Be careful of assuming that China's imports for domestic consumption.
> A large portion of non commodity imports are still destined for export
> after final assembly.

China Deficit Potential Makes Scary Headlines

If China, or any of the new and growing markets are counting on Americans returning to our lacksidaisical spending habits, they (and other emerging markets) may be in for a long wait that may never transpire. My 90 year old mother still to this day only uses half a napkin! And, still shows many traits that were picked up from living through the "Big Depression".. Speaking for myself; That new car smell doesn't have the same grab it used to. I get the Albertsons brand food products (and less of it). I don't think I really need that new SawsAll... even for Christmas. And I am Just one of the many whose buying (and savings) habits have changed dramatically over the last year. If you are tempted by the sirens on foreign shores.. you may not reap the returns you see in your dreams...They are highly over rated, as we shall soon see Soooo.... I think I'll grab a cup at Starbucks and check out the mall for some early Christmas shopping........ Nah,... maybe not.

Federal Reserve Exit Watch: Part 2

Good article John... It's done with regard to having it understood as opposed to so many others that seem to scream, "Let me tell you how smart I am!". I do agree with your logic and your numbers are real. Unfortunately so is your summary. You are wise to keep the discussion away from predictions and to point out only the factors that will create the results. Your first point, "The health of the economy", for the time being, seems to be on the mend in my opinion as well. Even the most permeable(sic) of the perma bears can't tell me those aren't real dollars going into my accounts. Facts are facts. And, if I manage my own money, any fluctuations that can, and will occur, I can address immediately. As long as no new taxes, or any other occurance that might knock the scab off the mending wounds happens, we may see some progress there. Your third issue, " a mending world economy", seems to be trucking along with the walking wounded. Ahead of us in most cases, at a closer glance. But the there's point 2..... Here lies the problem.. I wish I could bite my tounge (fingers) on this as well as you do, and, let all the readers just mull that over as it sinks in... "The increasing Federal debt." ...... Here lies the key to managing this economy at this juncture in time. And... We have painted ourselves into a corner buy electing a bunch of yahoos into office that have not a clue on what they are doing. No matter how good our intentions were, we screwed up... These guys are not capable of unscrewing this thing. I do believe that Bernanke and Geithner (and Paulson) get a pass as they were handed a dying patient. And, I do believe their intentions are true to their craft... at least they knew it was dying... Their bosses????? I think, are not armed well enough to carry out this battle. They may even have an alternate agenda... Until our best buisness minds can reason with the current junta about a logical progression of order to solve this massive dilema,... and to help them see that their grandiose political agenda may put the coup de gras to this economy..... I fear a deeper screwing. These clowns are not going to address reality....... 1 "attaboy" for John

The Economic Impact of the G20 Ending Oil Subsidies

PS... I agree wiyh user 422495 These guys aren't going to the G20 to do buisness.. It's a party... The got more accomplished at "Tail Hook" than these bunch of drunks will accomplish if they stay in session 6 months...

The Economic Impact of the G20 Ending Oil Subsidies

Wow!!! I heard manufacturing was up today but I didn't think that included data for Economics101 papers. Stick to prose or at the most,.. pure Math.... The only thing that would cap off this thriller is if you would of also included the fact that instead of enduring this slow cancer over the next 20 yrsPN....(pre nirvana). Another set of numbers shows we could roll across the region and control it all in about 30 hours.... Now that would stimulate some thought by the old proff,.. Wouldn't it.......... Hmmm wait aminute ..I think I;ve solved the problem!!!!!

Another $185B Could Soon Hit the Markets as U.S. Approaches Debt Ceiling

The trick to this game is to never take your eyes off the shell with the pea under it.

Jobless Recovery Can Be Avoided

Good job Steve, ... as always. I'm in total greement .I guess that makes all 14 of us... As you know, what you speak of is ideal, a state that we can only hope to achieve. Also, as you know, It will never transpire for the very same reasons you point out. All that we can do is identify and sit back down to read your investment account statement (as you point out).... But, if we understand the reality, then, in fact, we do have a tool to work with. I find that most often, It is more useful to to be able to use the limited tools that we have,... as opposed to having a complete toolbox... I enjoy your works... keep up the march....

U.S. Trade Deficit with China up Again in July

WE have placed ourselves in this position over a long period of time.. And, if no one recalls where this paths origin begins, I'll remind you that it is in the horrendous cost of American labor.... It is now and will remain cheaper to import from China no matter what your explaination is or your observations are.... Facts are facts. Tariff-Shmariff.... American Unions are killing us and until we do something about them, our trade deficit will never be reduced.... If you don't believe me,... fine. Ask any large buisness owner that is trying to compete out there and see what his first response is.... The old saw "Union Made" used to mean something positive... Now it just stands for "Over Priced" and "No interest in America"....

Why Shorting the Market Makes Sense Above 980

To state that the price of oil is what has brought GM down, is a statement that makes you sound like a very young and also extremely biased investor.... Here is a news flash from the reality sector... The unions brought GM down and only a fool or a neophyte can't or won't see that. As it has done in every industry from steel to coal to textiles and to the auto world... the eventual cancerous greed of the unions have destroyed another american way to make a living and sent more jobs over seas..... Sorry union boys but you better wake up to the sound of the american wallet hitting the floor. Haven't you driven enough manufacturing to foreign soils?? And, for this author to state that oil prices killed GM is nothing but rubish and an attempt to disguise the real problems in American labor... It reminds of an "enabler" telling an alcoholic that they "understand why things are so bad and it really isn't your fault if you should kill yourself with drink... somebody else is the reason."........ Yeah right buddy... Plus,... Short all you want at 975... it may be your last chance to destroy the market under the present foul smelling technique you call shorting.... See ya..Have a nice day ...you bore me....

Fresh Oil Supply Data and Potential Market Impact

Earthlings,... Fear not! Your next 10 yrs of investment into oil will be justly rewarded! If you only will pay attention to the population numbers of your planet and the calculus of it's increasing upswing... One can easily see that only the foolish amongst your species would suggest that a new and viable energy source(s) can rapidly be shifted to for mass consumption. Look globaly at your situation earthlings... People of your planet will be localizing into new and massive urban areas on a far greater scale than you see with your myopia. These units will be requireing cheap energy as a priority. Yes Detroit,.. as you so try so ardently to build a car that will plug into the wall,(and you will), the vast majority of your species will be trying to afford a Wall... No, Mr Ngyuen who just moved to the city and has a production job at the new US factory down in the city will not be plugging into any walls soon... He needs gasoline, diesel, coal, to improve his lot in your strange scenario called life. Oh these changes in energy sources will come,... definetly, But at a far less radical insertion rate than the "salesmen " would have you believe... Buy oil, buy natural gas, buy coal (you selfish non green heathen...) Your time of profit is soon to come because, earthlings,... It's not about Economics,... It's about the Math of Biology... As new a science as math is for your species it's easy to see why you prefer "Voodoo Economists"... Your 10 year plan will be successfull,...Have peace and Prosper...