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peteF

peteF
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  • American Capital Agency: You Are Next [View article]
    I liked Scott Kennedy's reply here. I also tried to raise some of these bear issues in comments on a Scott K article. ....Scott appears to believe hedging and MBS capital gains with falling interest rates will offset losses in spread...I don't believe Scott K has answered fully regarding the issue of TIME and his MREIT views reflect the popular belief that "RATES HAVE TO GO UP SOON". But, if rates stay down a long time ...refi's cause more major damage on the CPR...and lower spreads create a new normal for the MREIT yield and the stock price, at lower levels...Book value increases on MBS gains would stop ...and not offset these negatives..if the submarine levels off at lower depths of interest rates for a long period of time. Ken Rogoff sees growth ahead for USA which may raise rates...but other respectable sources think otherwise: like economist Gary Shilling, also http://hoisingtonmgt.com , http://bit.ly/1HddbDE and other bond specialists
    Apr 16, 2015. 11:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing Annaly Capital Management's BV, Dividend, Risk, And Valuation To Several mREIT Peers - Part 1 [View article]
    Hi Scott,
    While rates are still low, the percent moves in 10yr and 30yr Treasuries is unusual...a rare "3 standard deviation move".... mReit's tend to sell MBS and adjust some hedges at losses on these types of rate moves, correct? Can you say yet that this may be a tough quarter for mReit's like AGNC?
    Mar 7, 2015. 09:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing American Capital Agency's Recent BV, Dividend, Risk And Valuation To Several mREIT Peers - Part 2 [View article]
    hi Scott,
    Also re your answer to Richbar on divs... It doesn't make sense to me what you say that "mREITs can still purchase older, higher coupon MBS via the secondary marketplace (to combat lowering l-t interest rates). " If rates go down MBS prices go up, so the effective yield is lower on older Hi coup MBS they buy. mREIT's do get the BV boost as prices go up...but not high rates on new purchases. best regards
    Jan 7, 2015. 03:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing American Capital Agency's Recent BV, Dividend, Risk And Valuation To Several mREIT Peers - Part 2 [View article]
    hi Scott,
    re your reply to Richbar Jan 6 about dividend sustainability. I have been trying to pose that question to you for awhile and you have given much of the answer I wanted.
    I am still curious however, how long you would feel that divs would be sustainable if rates stayed low for a very, very long time. You say "CPRs are still rather modest when compared to prior periods where material drops in interest rates have occurred"..But surely the CPR rate would increase over a very long period of low rates if people still had jobs...and I would expect materially so. If so, about how many quarters of low rates might it take? best regards
    Jan 7, 2015. 03:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing American Capital Agency Corp.'s BV, Dividend, Risk, And Valuation To Several mREIT Peers [View article]
    Hi Scott,
    Thanks so much.
    NBB is a leveraged closed end fund which I guess is like a BDC.
    NBB cited both, financial and taxable undistributed net investment income, (UNII) as negative and positive respectively, first in the letter to shareholders, then in the notes.
    The detailed main accounting just shows the calculations proving the financial UNII in the semi annual.
    I wish someone like you at Seeking Alpha did closed end funds. There are often great values but it is hard to get clear and timely info.
    Dec 13, 2014. 11:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing American Capital Agency Corp.'s BV, Dividend, Risk, And Valuation To Several mREIT Peers [View article]
    Hi Scott,
    This may be off topic but what is more relevant to dividend sustainability:
    UNII for financial reporting purposes
    or
    UNII for tax reporting purposes?

    best regards

    (This is an issue in a favorite Build America Bond CEF , ticker NBB. No need to explain the why's....evidently the difference is " due to fed taxes paid, bond premium amortization and notional principal contracts reclassifications," leading to (.9mil) Unii for financial reporting vs about UNII $3.5million for tax reporting.... Both NBB and BBN are nice hedges during stock market volatility with income of about 7%.)
    Dec 13, 2014. 06:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan Stimulus: Not My Cup Of Sake [View article]
    David Kotok on Bloomberg was impressed with the Japan move and went from 50% stocks to 70% stocks. I like Kotok but looked at Financial Times article and noticed that the Japan govt pension fund will only be buying $110 billion of foreign stocks. If diversified to EU, USA and emerging mkts...that might be only $40 billion to USA stocks, or about the same as the recent Alibaba IPO liquidity drain, but spread out over time. The Japan bond buying seems more likely to hurt worldwide credibility in central bank QE's than change their economic situation.
    Nov 3, 2014. 01:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: American Capital Agency's Earnings For Q3 2014 And My Thoughts On The Results [View article]
    Yield compression is evidently wrong term. What if mtg interest rates fall for an extended period of time? Many homeowners will refi at lower rates, new mortgages at lower rates. That means lower yields for mReit's correct ?
    Nov 3, 2014. 12:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: American Capital Agency's Earnings For Q3 2014 And My Thoughts On The Results [View article]
    Hi Scott,
    Very instructive. Thanks. From your tables 9, 10:
    The biggest losses were on low coupon 15 yrs, and the rest of the portfolio not so positive.
    That seems very different than net prices shown on the chart of the MBB mortgage etf.
    I notice other readers are still worried about rising rates, a legitimate concern.
    The lagging / coincident ratio is predicting recession for USA. Japan Industrial numbers are predicting recession there via ECRI
    I know NAV can rise short term with falling rates but I am still wondering about longer term effects of falling rates on yield compressions for MReits.
    Oct 31, 2014. 12:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BDC Market Update Q4 2014: Introduction [View article]
    Hi BDC Buzz,
    The Fed Statement as a short term top indicator seems more random and unreliable lately on the chart you show here. Any thoughts on that?
    Oct 29, 2014. 02:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: American Capital Agency's Earnings For Q3 2014 And My Thoughts On The Results [View article]
    Hi Scott,
    Doesn't that seem odd to have a $(215)m unrealized MBS loss for Q3 in 'other comprehensive'? Q3 MBS prices were virtually unchanged for Q3 and traded in a narrow range. Pre-taper tantrum 2013 MBS prices were in a similar price range as this Q3 2014.

    best regards
    Oct 29, 2014. 02:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Key Event That Will Signal The Next Bear Market [View article]
    Nice research, but frustrating as I don't see how it is useful in strategy...It does disprove somewhat Trader Vic's (Vic Sperandio ? ) guidance that:

    ' when the 200 day MA flattens after a rise and the index breaks below the MA, a major sell signal is given'
    Oct 21, 2014. 05:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stocks And Ebola: A Risk Without Precedent [View article]
    I find it really weak thinking by medical pro's, politicians & media saying that 'closing the border' would make ebola worse. The issue is RESTRICTING the border, not closing it. Obviously, you want medical aid to flow in, and some trade, but NOT freedom for every human traveler, student etc to come and go...make lies on their medical forms, make mistakes in home monitoring etc etc .....The mistakes made by the relatively 'responsible' ebola exposed USA nurse ,who took a plane after noting she had a fever, is a shocking example of how easy big mistakes can be made with so much freedom given to so many people!!! Evidently ebola will spread outside the 3 main countries much more until people wise up. ..... Ebola IS now an issue facing already vulnerable financial markets with most Americans surveyed by Reuters saying they will avoid international travel...and the airline stocks plunging.
    Oct 17, 2014. 04:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding The Bull Market Peak [View article]
    Hi Eric Parnell,
    Great article.
    As of close 10/15/14 QQQ intraday low hit -11%. SPY intraday low -10% in 19 trading days.
    Can you update us on that chart showing the index SPREAD vs the 200 day moving average?
    The SPY close now looks 6% under the 200 day MA. Is this breaking of your chart's downtrend channel of SPREAD significant?
    Oct 16, 2014. 02:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The UBS-ETRACS 2X High-Income ETN Is A Poor Choice [View article]
    Good article. I agree and disagree.
    1)Given knowledge of DVHL components, it is still possible to buy DVHL when these components are net oversold as a group; maybe this is a difficult (and to some people's minds impossible) 'market timing' task , but an interesting option to some of us.
    2) Even without great market timing, the financial repression phase we are in makes these 2x leveraged high income instruments attractive due to the low cost leverage, vs about 7.5% margin rates available at our broker; Main St can piggy back on the corporate welfare given to the big boys on Wall St.

    It seems diversity is a dominant theme in selecting components of these 2x leverage ETN's....as we note the strange selection in BDCL vs component analysis of people like BDC Buzz. We have to make the best of it.
    Oct 10, 2014. 01:12 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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