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  • Process To Monitor Dividend Growth Companies [View article]
    I answered my own question. After sleeping on it literally!, I woke this morning with the answer already worded into my original question . . . If the dividend is not increasing year over year but has not been cut (yet!) then he gets the 25% hit on his metric . . . and adding any other metrics may or may not bring that stock to the 65% threshold for a sell consideration. So your original idea is great, I like it and will be using it in some form with modifications suggested by other commentators like factors for debt, ROE increasing YOY and maybe not waiting for six quarters, etc.
    Again, great idea Adam, simple, easy to keep up to date and readily 'enhanced' to taste!
    Looking forward to any replies from other SA folks and future articles from you. Good stuff.
    Jun 12, 2012. 07:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Process To Monitor Dividend Growth Companies [View article]
    Thank you for an excellent article. Near the beginning, you state " . .. my goal is to anticipate and sell a holding prior to a dividend cut." Am I missing something? because you have listed as a metric and percentage of 25% is the dividend growing year over year (or not, i.e. flat or cut). If this metric is a No, then that's 25% already off towards your 65% cutoff threshold to sell after 6 quarters. And it only requires 10% more from the other metrics to meet that 35%/65% threshold. Including the metric of a dividend cut (or flat/not increasing) to help anticipate and sell prior to the cut seems rather circular to me. Perhaps leaving this metric out of the mix and just relying on the other metrics as a guide to anticipate the cut before it happens might work better? Don't know, just asking and it seems like you are open and we are free to add or modify your basic idea as we please.
    Anyway, I am new to Seeking Alpha, love the forums, reading and learning a lot already and especially your 'early indicator' idea for the monitor portion of buy and monitor.
    Jun 12, 2012. 12:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment