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ramzi15

ramzi15
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  • Ignore Cyprus: Stock Market All-Time Highs Imminent [View article]
    Hi to all
    my guess is that all the bears out there have been bearish since a long time now and have been hurting for quite a bit on their shorts (hence why they are so aggressive in the way they comment and are being way too emotional with their trading). In order to trade well you have to watch the markets and the price action. Today the Cyprus risk has been averted the markets have rallied quite a bit. So what now?
    Well let s look at the facts:
    -SPX is close to all time highs which is the major argument for the bears (whether they want to admit it is another story)
    -VIX curve STILL steep (market still not complacent which is bullish)
    - the great rotation from bonds to equities still has not took place
    - Retail participants all bearish due to SPX being at all time highs
    - US economy recovering decently (if you follow the figures well you will see that positive economic suprises have dominated the past 6 months UNLIKE 2012)
    - The Fed will continue QE UNTIL it feels the market is ready for that pump to start reducing the workload (and by the way Ben tested that using the FOMC meeting- market sold off- Ben came back and stated he will continue QE)
    - Investors and especially retail look at the past 2 years 2011/2012 and think that the same "trading" market will occur and hence explains why they are so bearish - the market is changing- we may see the start of a "trending" market.

    So ask yourself, what is the easy trade here? in my opinion it s short SPX with stop loss a few points above all time highs. From a risk reward point it is the ovbious trade but often times the obvious trade is the trade that s never going to materialise.

    Given that i see only one argument (am talking about US here) why the market will sell off here , i think we will rally to all time highs, probably even take out all the stop losses in place there and go towards 1620 in a flash. Only then when the shorts have given up will the correction take place and it wont be big trust me. But pls people do not short such a market you will only hurt your wallets and from the sound of it and in the tones in which you write you are all hurting already and are way too emotional.

    I am long SPX (have been since 09) and long OTM puts for protection (vol is cheap so take advantage!)

    Good trading to all and remember WATCH the markets and dont let emotions cloud your judgement.
    Mar 25 06:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has No Choice But To Make A Larger iPhone [View article]
    making a slighlty bigger phone (from 4inch to 5 inch) is not the holy grail to Apple s problems and a bigger screen offers zero innovation. Apple need to either start buying back their already undervalued shares and/or innovate and come out with a new product (which I am sure is in the works, like iwatch etc...).
    Mar 7 06:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "It's as good as it gets in the U.S.," a wildly bullish David Tepper tells Bloomberg. "This country is on the verge of an explosion of greatness." Be long the "risk things," he says, and avoid Treasurys, the Swiss franc, and the yen. He's as blunt as ever: "I'd rather work at McDonald's than the sell side." [View news story]
    If earnings beat expectations we should trend higher. As for the goofballs in Washington they will postpone the debt ceiling issue til April so less uncertainty in the near term. In addition yes VIX is at an all time low but the VIX futures curve is still steep which means the market is not complacent. If you have not benefited from this rally already then wait for a pullback (which will happen mostly end of Q1, beg of Q2). All in all though this market in 2013 will be easier to trade than 2012 (which was already easier to trade than in 2011) no doubt- some ppl here are overly bearish and will be wrong again and again ...
    Jan 22 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "It's as good as it gets in the U.S.," a wildly bullish David Tepper tells Bloomberg. "This country is on the verge of an explosion of greatness." Be long the "risk things," he says, and avoid Treasurys, the Swiss franc, and the yen. He's as blunt as ever: "I'd rather work at McDonald's than the sell side." [View news story]
    he makes perfect sense. With the US economy clearly improving and the FED behind printing money why would you not invest in high yielding assets? Yes it will creat a new asset bubble (equities) but it wont be bursting anytime soon. Like it or not, US equities are now the most attractive asset class. He does seem a little crazy but he is very smart. Most interestingly his top holdings were:
    1-QQQ
    2-Apple
    3-Citi
    4-AIG
    Jan 22 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy Sandstorm Gold - Yet [View article]
    nicely up today- 11$ was a very nice entry point to enter or reload. Great compnay...holding on to this one for a long long time.
    Nov 23 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy Sandstorm Gold - Yet [View article]
    nice article. I own SAND now after the correction and its current P/E doesnt make me uncomfortable if I compare it with RGLD and FNV that have a similar P/E
    Nov 22 04:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman's David Kostin sticks to his 1250 year-end target for the S&P, saying those hoping for a quick resolution to the fiscal cliff are dreaming. With the capital gains tax set to rise 830 basis points to 23.8%, Kostin says the selling will continue in December if past experience with tax hikes of this size is any guide. [View news story]
    he is a contrarian indicator: let s go long then.
    Nov 19 07:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) reverses a sizable early decline and goes flat premarket as Gene Munster says his team's checks show iPhone 5 supplies are improving, and it may be just 2-3 weeks before the phone is "consistently available to consumers." [View news story]
    what reversal? premarket 538!!
    Nov 9 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vieira Downgrades Apple To Strong Sell [View instapost]
    If you really want to be helpful pls let us know what his target is on the stock from here? 500? 400?
    Nov 8 03:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap iPhone 5 Supplier Is Temporarily On Sale [View article]
    Hi Akram's Razor
    What is your opinion on SWKS? This stock has dropped about 40% from its peak. Despite beating earnings expectations for 7 quarters in a row the lower guidance just killed the stock
    Do you see nay upside potential from here.
    thanks
    Nov 5 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's October Sell-Off: Remarkably Similar To Last Time [View article]
    Interesting article but anything you could add which is forward looking?
    Do you still have a bearish stance now?
    Nov 5 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On Apple's Ousting Of Forstall And Browett: Asserting Cook's Authority, Solidifying Jobs' Vision [View article]
    It seems Apple is moving in the right direction.

    Unfortunatley negative propaganda hasnt stopped at all, on the contrary. An analyst was just now seen on Bloomberg criticising this move as well as the lower margin iPad mini leading to more margin compressions...
    and just a few weeks ago the market wasnt happy as they thought the iPad mini was too expensive?!
    Pre -market stock is down below 600 and the rest of the market is up
    We havent seen the bottom on this stock yet, unfortunatley...
    Oct 31 08:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL -2.6%) is now seeing a decent post-earnings selloff. Aside from the margin issues, the Street is likely concerned about Apple's relatively soft European and Asia-Pac performance. Europe and China's macro problems are one reason, but in light of Samsung's Q3 smartphone sales and recent market share data (I, II), Android competition could be another. U.S. and Japanese sales grew much faster thanks to iPhone share gains - could the Japanese gains finally lead to a deal with NTT DoCoMo? (more) (transcript[View news story]
    ...meanwhile Amazon is up 3.6%....I am puzzled.
    If this stock breaks the 200 ma longs are in trouble but undoubtedly even if Apple s days are over, wouldnt it be wise for longs to just wait and sell the stock around January?
    Oct 26 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Trading At 60-75% Premium To Its Sum Of Parts Valuation [View article]
    I believe forward P/E is lower at about 12.5.
    Also the sum of all parts is always smaller than the whole company due to goodwill and synergies (Apple ecosytem that hooks customers...you buy ipad then apple tv etc...then you spend money on itunes).

    Not very convincend by your analysis.
    Lately the number of bearish articles on Apple have multiplied and when i see this I become even more bullish.
    Oct 9 06:24 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Reasons Apple Shares Will Make New Highs, Again [View article]
    Very well written article. Agree fully and waiting to load up in the 640 area which should happen today. Also let us not forget the 100 Moving average currently stands at 619 and this is MAJOR support for the stock.
    Oct 8 09:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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