Roscat

Who Will Win the Economic Battle for Ukraine?

Great article and good macro-analysis.

As you state, there will probably be no winner in the fight for Ukraine. it will continue to have Russian influences in the east and EU influences in the west. I just hope that will not become another divided Germany. The outcome would not be pretty.

It will be fantastically hard for Ukraine to manage the situation diplomatically but, they can certainly use all the help they need. Yushchenko and Tymoshenko need to understand that this issue is bigger than any of them individually.

A first step is the elimination of dependency of Russia. I am sure they understand that but, it is generally hard to implement since the vision and results are quite long-term.

I wish them the best.

Russia's Pact with China: Will Others Follow Suit?

As said above, the Russia-China relationship is deeper than many understand.

The oil deal is just the beginning of the dollar fall. China will pay in roubles and thus will support the Russian currency by selling the dollar. China will further buy Eastern European currencies against the dollars they have in order to diversify.

This will support the EE countries, China's diversification and the US dollar needs of more capital.

But, it needs to happen faster and China only likes things incremental.

Regards.